2 Disgrace 2 Gijon delivers peak drama

You made it. You got through the expanded World Cup group stage in one piece. Give yourself a pat on the back.

Group G: De Bruyne, Vanaken offer new direction for Belgium

It's not quite that Kevin De Bruyne playing well comes as a surprise, even after an injury-hit season with Napoli. Rather, after two decent enough showings against Egypt and Iran, it was worth asking about whether the 35-year-old was still a central figure for Belgium, or if Rudi Garcia might want to look at different options for what was effectively a must-win match against New Zealand.

Garcia kept the faith, retaining De Bruyne as his 10 against New Zealand. The change came deeper, with Club Brugge playmaker Hans Vanaker deployed deeper to help accelerate the tempo and open the field. That change made sense against a more defensively-oriented side, but leaning harder into aging midfielders isn't exactly how the modern game tends to work.

It certainly worked at BC Place, where Belgium put the Kiwi goal under siege throughout the first half, eventually breaking through as Leandro Trossard got a foot to a loose ball after De Bruyne's delivery from a corner caused chaos in the goalmouth. It felt like familiar stuff from the Man City legend.

Speaking of familiar:

This isn't De Bruyne's finest goal, but a silky touch to avoid a potential block and set up a low left-footed strike feels like a pretty fair summary of how the man has tended to get onto the scoresheet over the years.

Obviously New Zealand were at a talent deficit in this match in a way that Egypt and Iran weren't. Still, given that Belgium were grouped in 2022, putting up the kind of result that tournament favorites would log has to be somewhat reassuring.

It also brings up a difficult question: are they good enough going forward with a more physically robust side to make up for losing this De Bruyne-Vanaken axis?

Rather than the "just feed Doku" approach that one might skew towards, Garcia got his side total domination by asking Trossard to tuck inside (creating a 4-v-3 overload New Zealand was not at all equipped to deal with), and through the passing vision of De Bruyne and Vanaken.

Senegal are a far superior opponent, but there might be some merit to a 4-2-3-1 that shifts into a 4-2-2-2 in possession. The Lions of Teranga prefer to keep the ball even against supposedly superior teams, skewing towards a mid-block set-up and a less aggressive pressing mentality. That means Belgium will need to think the game and pick through Senegal's lines with precision, and it may open the door towards this set-up working against a very different sort of opponent. We'll see on Wednesday. —JA

Iran suffer an absolute heartbreaker

Iran have been eliminated from the World Cup without losing a game. Their three draws were not enough to see them through as one of the best third-placed teams, though they obviously were quite a bit better than a couple of the teams that advanced.

Team Melli had what appeared to be a late winner chalked off for a very close offside call, thanks to Egypt’s goalkeeper getting caught well up the pitch and accidentally setting a perfect offside trap. That near-massive chance and goal isn’t even included as a shot on this xG race chart.

Ultimately, this was job done for Egypt, who earned progression to the knockout rounds in 2nd place, and they’ll face Australia on July 3.

We try not to share our personal political opinions on this newsletter because it’s not what anyone comes here for. I’m going to keep it that way, and you can follow my personal accounts if you’d like to know how I feel about politics. But it would be disingenuous not to mention that Iran were not granted equal competitive conditions at this World Cup. They had a completely different travel schedule to every other team, one which negatively affected their ability to provide standard medical treatment to players after games. Given the standard of their performances, I can say with a pretty high degree of confidence that they would have advanced had they been given fair conditions. Their treatment and elimination are a stain on the competitive integrity of the competition. —KM

Group H: Cape Verde remain unbeaten, advance

The Cabo Verde fairytale continued in Group H. Having drawn their first two games, they took on Saudi Arabia knowing that a win would guarantee a top-two spot, while a draw was potentially going to be enough to progress as well.

Georgios Donis’ side were in a must-win situation, but the Greek coach made some questionable team selection decisions. Notably, he dropped an attacking midfielder to play a trio of more defensive-minded profiles in the middle of the park. That went exactly as one would expect; the Green Falcons barely posed an attacking threat.

Cabo Verde just shaded possession in the first half and put together some nice attacking moves playing through the Saudi block, but their lack of clinicality in the final third remained a source of frustration. They would get even more inviting opportunities as the second half wore on and their opponents threw more numbers forward in desperation, but the final action always left something to be desired.

Nevertheless, the Blue Sharks did an excellent job of consistently getting forward and thereby avoiding facing any spells of sustained pressure at the back. In the end, a point proved to be enough for second place in the group, making Cabo Verde the smallest nation to ever qualify for the World Cup knockouts. —NS

Pour one out for Marcelo Bielsa

I suspect this is the last we will see of the legendary 70-year-old Argentine manager at the highest level of the sport, and if that’s true, it’s been an outstanding career. He was an innovator in pressing styles and the now seldom-seen 3-3-3-1 formation, which helped Athletic Bilbao, Leeds, and the Chilean national team to some of their best results in recent history.

Unfortunately for Bielsa, he was tasked with turning around a Uruguay program in decline, and I’m not sure what he was supposed to do with this group of players. Without a single midfielder who can pass more than 5 yards in the player pool, he set up his team in the most boring 4-4-2 and 4-5-1 mid-block setups you’ll ever see, and the results were predictable.

We can probably also pour one out for 40-year-old goalkeeper Fernando Muslera, who I hope gets a testimonial against a minnow so he can go out on a clean sheet instead of on this.

As for Spain, I feel like we have learned nothing from these 3 games. They were drawn into arguably the weakest group in the competition, and got 7 points without ever getting out of 1st gear. Austria aren’t exactly flying at the moment, but they should still provide a slightly stiffer test to La Roja. —KM

Group I: Norway and France played football for 90 minutes

Erling Haaland said before this game that it didn’t matter, and that France would probably win the tournament. Norway played a complete B-team, and France won 4-1. So I will take this game as seriously as the Norwegians did, and we will move on. Ousmane Dembele and Kylian Mbappe were very good, and I suspect Haaland might be correct. —KM

Senegal pour on the goals to ensure qualification

It had not looked good for Senegal through their first two matches in the World cup. While they kept France at bay for longer than many expected before eventually losing to them, there were less moral victories to be had in their defeat to Norway. Fortunately for them, qualification was still possible as one of the eight best third-placed teams, but they had to pile on the goals vs Iraq to help their goal difference.

To Senegal’s credit, they did what needed to be done with a 5-0 victory over Iraq. Senegal took an early lead in the third minute off of an outswinger corner, a more regular occurrence at the World Cup as a whole compared to the club game last season. A red card to Iraq’s Rebin Sulaka nine minutes later for denying Sadio Mané a goalscoring opportunity gave Senegal the chance to save their tournament hopes.

While it took some time, the combination of Senegal’s talent advantage along with playing 11v10 eventually led to an avalanche of goals. This was led by Pape Gueye, who amazingly had two goals and an assist as a 56th minute substitute. Those strikes were some of the cleanest we’ve seen in the World Cup so far.

Senegal did what needed to be done to keep their tournament ongoing. As it turned out, they were the only team who made it to the round of 32 with three points, courtesy of a +2 goal difference. Surprisingly, there’s a pathway for them to make a spirited run in the knockout round. First up is a matchup with a wheezing Belgium side, who also did not impress in the group stages. Should Senegal come out victorious, they’d face the winner of the United States versus Bosnia and Herzegovina in the round of 16. For a tournament which started off so rocky, there’s still a roadmap for Senegal to have their best showing at a World Cup since their famous quarterfinal run in 2002. —MM

Group J: Another dead rubber game entertains

Much like the match between France and Norway, the Group J finale between Argentina and Jordan was meaningless. La Albiceleste rotated completely, though they let some of their stars enter in the 60th minute. That included Lionel Messi, the man everyone in Dallas paid an exorbitant amount of money to see. And the little magician made sure everyone got their money’s worth.

I love how he started celebrating immediately after striking the ball, while it was still a solid 10 meters from the goal. Dude’s an alien. —KM

2 Disgrace 2 Gijon got surprisingly dramatic

Algeria - Austria was the last meaningful game of the group stage. The possibility of advancing from third place created a unique situation whereby a draw would suit both teams, so some feared a repeat of the famous Disgrace of Gijón.

Of course, both these teams were involved on that fateful day in 1982. Austria were on the pitch with West Germany, with whom they settled for a 1-0 result that ensured mutual progression at the expense of Algeria. Simultaneous kick-offs on the final matchday were introduced thereafter, but with results influencing teams in other groups as well this time, the team at risk now was Iran.

The match got off to a slow start, but it didn’t look like an entirely uncompetitive handshake draw. Austria opened the scoring through Marko Arnautović with the third shot of the game in the 28th minute, further opening the contest up. Algeria had to push more thereafter, and equalised on the stroke of half-time with a quite unique goal.

The two traded goals soon after half-time, but after the second hydration break, a draw looked to be effectively agreed. Austria had all ten well inside their own half, while Algeria just knocked it around their back line having switched to a back three. There was no shot attempted until the third minute of stoppage time, when the Fennecs went up and scored through Riyad Mahrez.

That was not all, though. Desperately needing a goal, Ralf Rangnick switched out a defender for striker Saša Kalajdžić. The ex-Wolves man emphatically headed home a well-worked move with the last touch of the game to make it 3-3, taking both teams through after all. —NS

Group K: Portugal sucks man

Colombia and Portugal entered their match knowing that they were both already through to the knockout stage, and were just playing for position. As a result, this was a fairly risk-averse contest, though certainly not a mutually agreed draw. Portugal still tried to win the match to overtake Colombia and win the group, they just weren’t very good at attacking.

The eventual 0-0 draw was good enough for Colombia to top the group, though Portugal’s army of online haters was quite upset at Los Cafeteros having a stoppage time winner chalked off for offside. To the lino’s credit, he flagged it live, but the VAR screenshot still pissed everyone off.

Cristiano Ronaldo’s lack of mobility at center forward is going to continue to be a talking point as we head into the knockout stages. He was stinky in this match, and he dragged his front line mates down with him.

I’m not sure how it’s possible to get zero production out of your attackers when your midfield is Vitinha, Ruben Neves and Bruno Fernandes, flanked by fullbacks Nuno Mendes and Joao Cancelo, and all of these players are actively making good passes. The center backs Renato Veiga and Ruben Dias have been good in build-up too. It’s not just Ronaldo — the wingers have been astonishingly poor too.

A front line of Rafael Leao, Goncalo Ramos and Francisco Conceicao would be considerably better than any of the ones that Portugal have started in this tournament. Roberto Martinez is too much of a coward to try this. —KM

DR-Congo go through for the first time ever

It took a dramatic late comeback, but with their 3-1 win over Uzbekistan, DR-Congo secured progression as one of the top third placed sides, and have earned a date with England on July 1.

Eldor Shomurodov opened the scoring in the 10th minute, and for the first hour of the match, DRC didn’t look like they had the quality to get back into the match. But when their attack picked up, it REALLY picked up.

The winner came off a fortunate deflection on the assist, but there was nothing lucky about Fiston Mayele’s reaction and finish. That’s some peak goal-poaching.

DRC will be massive underdogs against England, with their attack not looking particularly dangerous before this late surge. They’re averaging 0.8 xG per 90 across their three games, which is one of the lowest marks of teams that progressed. But I can’t imagine they care too much, this is a pretty significant step forward for their program. —KM

Group L: Croatia secure 2nd, Modric makes history

On the surface, Croatia and Ghana looked to be a potential mutually beneficial draw. Both would’ve been on four or more points, guaranteeing an appearance in the knockout stages. Instead, after snagging a draw against England with one of the most committed low blocks seen in the tournament so far (A Carlos Queiroz special), Ghana went the other way and fielded a more attack minded lineup.

However, the first half was a rough showing for them, only generating one shot. So much of the progressive passing responsibility was on the backline through the center-backs Jonas Adjetey and Derrick Luckassen, which didn’t work out. Croatia were able to defend solidly in the middle third and find opportunities to counter, including in the 16th minute when Nikola Vlasic struck the post. Eventually, after a spell of possession, Croatia took the lead from an expertly placed long shot by Petar Sucic.

The second half saw improvement for Ghana. They eventually moved into more of a 4-2-4 with Abdul Fatawu’s substitution in the 46th minute to play on the right wing, complimenting Kamaldeen Sulemana on the left. They were finding success from interplay around the flanks, and getting their attackers into more advantageous positions. Interestingly though, their equalizer came from a free-kick by Luckassen in the 73rd minute, which eventually stood after a lengthy VAR review.

Only a few minutes later, Croatia found the late winner from an outswinging corner by Luka Modrić towards Petar Sucic. Modrić became the oldest player ever to record an assist at a World Cup at 40 years old. It was part of a masterclass performance by him, which included typical Modrić-esque passing and some key defensive plays in the 2nd half. Croatia got the three points, and finished second in the group to secure a date with Portugal in the knockout stages. Meanwhile, Ghana finished as one of several third-placed teams with four points and will have to deal with a surging Colombia side. —MM

England aren’t great at this “breaking down low blocks” thing

The Three Lions ultimately pulled out a comfortable 2-0 win over Panama, securing first place in Group L, with Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham scoring the goals. But their first half performance left a lot to be desired, and given the earlier 0-0 draw against Ghana, plenty for fans to be worried about.

It’s not very impressive, is it.

On the evidence of their matches against Portugal and Colombia, DR-Congo will employ a defensive strategy similar to that of Panama and Ghana in their knockout game against England, and they’re competent at it. Thomas Tuchel might need to go fishing for some fresh ideas. —KM

Round of 32: Canada survive war of attrition vs. South Africa

There’s no way of sugarcoating it; Canada was given a golden chance to continue making history at the 2026 World Cup. While South Africa deserved credit for turning things around after a shocking opening loss to Mexico, including a crucial victory over South Korea which ended up eliminating them, Canada couldn’t ask for a more doable opponent for the round of 32.

The first half was a turgid affair, with a lack of quality from both sides once possession got towards the final third. To South Africa’s credit, they did show some bright moments with their deep build-up. Having their two central defenders stationed quite wide made it tougher for Canada’s front two to press consistently. Both Mbekezeli Mbokazi and Ime Okon displayed clever footwork to evade incoming pressure from Tani Oluwaseyi and Jonathan David’s pressing runs. South Africa’s goalkeeper Ronwen Williams was consistent with the touch of his driven aerial passes, finding soft spots in Canada’s stretched press. In general, they were finding success with getting runners into space on Canada’s flanks. There were some heavy touches towards the final third so their hard work in deeper areas didn’t lead to any decent chances, but South Africa were able to effectively take the sting out of the match in open play (to the dismay of the Canadian contingent at the stadium).

On Canada’s side, the inability to string enough passes together to truly create threatening situations was less forgivable. There were multiple examples in the first half where a more composed touch during quick combinations could’ve allowed Canada to attack against a non-set defense, as South Africa’s rest defense was not airtight. When those moments aren’t turned into shots of better than average quality, Canada has a tendency to really struggle during settled possession. Fortunately for them, they were able to rely on their physicality during set-pieces for some frantic moments, including a couple of close range shots from a corner in the 43rd minute. Almost all of their xG generated in the first half came from set-pieces.

The second half saw Canada eventually lay off the high press, although not before South Africa expertly pierced through it and nearly created a big opportunity in the 55th minute. Canada were better at manufacturing fast break shots, such as Oluwaseyi’s attempt in the 64th minute which included some heroic last ditch defending from Mbokazi. Alphonso Davies’ first minutes of the World Cup came later on in the 74th minute, and while playing on one leg, he clearly looked a step above anyone else wearing a Canadian jersey. It looked like the match would go to extra time, but a headed clearance from South Africa reached Stephen Eustaquio just outside the box, who chested the ball down calmly before rifling a perfect finish which Williams had no chance of stopping. In a match which many would say lacked in quality, it was Eustaquio who provided it at the very end.

Before the past few years, the Canadian men’s national team had been dominated by constant failures in CONCACAF World Cup qualifying. Its low point came in October 2012 where they lost 8-1 against Honduras to be eliminated in the third round. However, the arrival of a golden generation (with Davies as the poster child) has led to unprecedented success. There was finally qualifying for the 2022 World Cup after a 36 year wait, coming in 4th during the 2024 Copa America, and now this current run which sees them in the round of 16. This is the greatest moment ever on the men’s side, one which could help continue the sport’s growth in the country. Canada will be clear underdogs against either one of Morocco or the Netherlands, and even should their time at this tournament end on Saturday, it’s been an unequivocal success for Canada. —MM

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