2 off-meta FPL pickups to consider this week

When the homies at Solio Analytics dropped their projected goals for players this week, I did not expect the name 2nd from top.

Bournemouth striker Evanilson has been disappointing this season, scoring just one goal. His xG per 90 is down pretty significantly from last season, when he was very productive in his debut campaign for the Cherries.

But Evanilson had some minor injury issues to start the year, and took a long time to get up to full speed. Recently, he’s started to play a lot better, even if the goals haven’t quite come yet. 64% of his xG has come since November 1.

Popular budget striker picks Igor Thiago and Danny Welbeck are both carrying minor knocks, so if you’re not loving the look of that, Evanilson might be a good backup option for you. It’s generally not great to burn a transfer on a one week option — Bournemouth have Chelsea and Arsenal coming up, so this is not the best long-term play — but if you need one, he’s probably your guy.

On FPL Mate’s 100 experts poll, the most transferred in player this week is not one that’s big among the larger player base: Nico O’Reilly.

And I’m liking the fantasy upside for Man City’s left back. He’s putting up pretty big tackle and aerial numbers for a fullback.

And he’s getting some very nice assist locations too.

With Jeremy Doku missing the next few weeks, I also wouldn’t be surprised to see O’Reilly getting forward and getting the ball into the box more often. Doku is likely to be replaced with someone who likes to do a bit more cutting in than staying wide, and someone’s going to need to fill that space.

And finally, if you play FPL, we recommend subscribing to LazyFPL. We have a detailed look at one FPL topic a week over here, but they follow all of the press conferences and local reporters, and go much more in depth with the injury and team news.

Though it’s been a slightly down run of late, Variance Betting is +19 units on the season, which is awesome. Last year, the period from the holidays through the end of February was our most profitable. If you’d like to get Ted’s explanations of his bets in your inbox every week so you can learn how to become a much smarter gambler, you can sign up here.

In the actual Variance Betting column, it appears that the bookies have either not picked up on the fact that the Africa Cup of Nations is going on, or they’re banking on most of the action not noticing. Some of the lines do not seem to account for major departures at all, and Ted’s bet accordingly. He’s got 3 on the Premier League and 6 on the Championship this weekend.

On the podcast, the boys are probably going to start talking transfers a lot more in the coming month. Tottenham Hotspur and Aston Villa are two teams that could make big January moves, and we’ve got some suggestions.

This week’s Patreon-exclusive podcast dives into how much fan pressure matters inside clubs, why goalkeepers are uniquely hard to evaluate for recruitment, and some of Ted and Pat’s favorite NON-Arsenal players from the past. There’s a bonus show on Patreon every week, plus the behind-the-scenes B-roll chat.

Games we’re watching

The best place to find listings for your country is probably LiveSoccerTV.

Newcastle vs. Chelsea — Despite a very poor Tyne-Wear Derby performance and sitting 12th in the table, Newcastle are still totally decent and I’m just waiting for the big turnaround.

RB Leipzig vs. Bayer Leverkusen — Both of these teams have some stars at AFCON so it might get weird.

Juventus vs. Roma — Every time I recommend a Juve game in this column I regret it, but this is indisputably a huge game.

Villarreal vs. Barcelona — Probably the game of the week anywhere in the world, make time for this one.

Stuff we’re reading

The Guardian released their top 100 men’s footballers list, where I think the top 6 are pretty sensible before it goes off the rails a little bit.

Llew Davies at Scouted has another year end-style list, their best XI of young talents they watched this year.

Ed Malyon and Matt Hughes at FootBiz dig into the messes at Celtic and Rangers.

David Segar at Opta Analyst makes the (correct) argument for Hugo Ekitike to continue starting at striker for Liverpool.

Gillian Kasirye at Total Football Analysis breaks down the game of Brighton center back Jan Paul van Hecke, who I really expected to make a move to a richer club last summer.

Mark Carey at The Athletic compares Enzo Maresca to Pep Guardiola amidst rumours that the Chelsea manager will replace his old mentor at City.

James Olley at ESPN asks why Viktor Gyökeres hasn’t worked out at Arsenal and if it matters.

If you enjoyed this newsletter, we’d appreciate it if you would forward it to a friend. If you’re that friend, welcome! You can subscribe to The Transfer Flow here. We also have a podcast where we go in depth on transfer news and rumours every week. We’re on YouTube here, and you can subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify by searching for “The Transfer Flow Podcast.” If you’re interested in football betting, check out this post on why we started Variance Betting.