2 years later, Man City still want Lucas Paqueta?

Two years ago, Lucas Paqueta was on the verge of an £85m transfer from West Ham to Manchester City. That move was nixed by allegations that Paqueta was involved in spot-fixing by intentionally taking yellow cards, which he was finally cleared of this week. West Ham is expected to seek compensation from the FA for their costs in fighting the case.

During these last two years, City has apparently retained an interest in Paqueta, and could make a move for him now that he’s been cleared of all charges. Sebastian Vidal says that West Ham’s asking price is £50m, and in classic silly transfer rumour fashion, they’d like to bring that price down by offering Jack Grealish to the Hammers.

Unfortunately for Paqueta, in addition to aging two years since City was last interested, his production has not been exceptional over the last two seasons. This is almost certainly an unfair criticism of him given what he’s been through, but I don’t point out the negatives to put down a guy who’s clearly been through a lot of stress that he didn’t deserve. I point it out because this is a transfers analysis newsletter, and my professional opinion is that City can find a better way to spend £50m.

Paqueta combines above average passing with solid work rate, but he hasn’t been especially productive in any respect. I understand the idea that City feel like they require a higher work rate player as a compliment to the stylish but defensively poor Rayan Cherki and Tijjani Reinders, but one that can still pass the ball a bit, and Paqueta ticks those boxes. But £50m is a lot of money for a 27-year-old squad player who does not appear to be elite at anything.

City would be making a bet that last season’s lack of production was a mega-anomaly, and once again, I can see the case if I really squint. Paqueta had 6 assists from 4.38 xG assisted two years ago, but somehow managed none last year, despite some decent key passes. Basically, City think West Ham sucks and it’s all his teammates’ fault.

Paqueta does enough stuff and City have enough money that this isn’t going to be a disastrous deal if it happens, but I still wouldn’t recommend it. It’s unfortunate for Paqueta, because he probably was worth signing for City before he got screwed over.

More news and transfer rumours

• About 5 minutes about yesterday’s newsletter was published about Everton rumours, the Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall signing was made official.

• Ardon Jashari’s move from Club Brugge to AC Milan is also official, reportedly for €35m guaranteed + add-ons. It’s a big fee, but I think Jashari is great, and his reported salary is so low that the total cost of the deal isn’t bad at all.

• Please enjoy this LA city council member telling Son Heung-Min she expects him to help the United States win the World Cup. Americans are never beating the not knowing ball allegations.

• Manchester United have apparently made contact with Brighton about Carlos Baleba, who would presumably cost them in excess of £100m this window. I can’t imagine United have a way to make both the Baleba and Benjamin Šeško signings work under PSR.

• Rumours are picking up about newsletter favorite Maghnes Akilouche potentially heading to Bayer Leverkusen, which would cost somewhere in the €50-70m range (yeah, I know that’s a big range). I’d love to watch him there.

• Girona are getting raided for their fullbacks, and I have no idea how the CFG club is going to replenish their ranks at the end of this summer. Juventus is after right back Arnau Martinez, and Napoli is signing left back Miguel Gutierrez.

• Antony continues to make it impossible for Man United to sell him by insisting that he only wants to play for Betis. United have £0 in sales at publish time by the way.

• Forest are reportedly looking into signing Mads Bidstrup from RB Salzburg, which would be really interesting depending on price. Hard to know how Austrian Bundesliga skills translate to the Prem, but he’s a really high volume ball winner.

• RB Leipzig are negotiating with Liverpool’s Harvey Elliott, which I’d really like to see Tottenham try to do now that James Maddison is confirmed out with a torn ACL.

• I really like Burnley’s signing of Lesley Ugochukwu from Chelsea. I am extremely skeptical of Burnley’s signing of Armando Broja from Chelsea.

And if you missed it previously, the directory for all of our Premier League season previews is here. They’ll be added as links in the predicted table as they get edited and posted. Once they’re all out, I’ll add a directory to the bottom of every page as well. To read them, you’ll need to be signed into the website with the email address you signed up with. Thanks to everyone who signed up, and I hope you’re enjoying them. —KM

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