A Transfer Rumour Blowout

We are rocking a roundup straight from the jump because there is simply too much going on. I’m just trying to catch up a bit while we balance the team rebuilds in the midst of full-on transfer season and some very interesting twists and turns already, so strap in and enjoy. - TK

• Nicolas Jackson’s relationship to Chelsea coming out of this season was rumoured to be a bit wobbly, but in the last two days the rumourmongers seem to have been briefed that he’s definitely available and potentially going elsewhere. The problem here is PL players are so expensive that it basically rules out any foreign European giants like AC Milan from making full moves for the good ones. This is definitely one to watch, and I shared some brief thoughts on social media earlier today.
  
  I’m just spitballing, but Jackson would make A LOT of sense for LFC and Arsenal, and a moderate amount of sense for Newcastle as well (they’ll need someone good up top besides Isak to get through this season). He’d also make sense for Manchester United, and I suspect Chelsea would prefer to sell him to the worst team on the list, but the player gets a say here too.

• I’m kind of squinting at that Joao Pedro deal now and it makes way more sense. He’s not been a full-on productive CF yet in his career, but if you knew Jackson was an outgoing later in the window, and you’re pushing Pedro up front and Delap as the primary backup… I guess? There’s still some dice rolling going on.

• It looks like Noni Madueke is (almost) officially an Arsenal player. This one has accelerated quickly, we covered it across the Arsenal rebuild earlier this week, and with a price around £50M we’re largely on board with it. Meanwhile, Arsenal fan reaction seems hugely negative, which is so unlike them. 😎 

• It definitely feels like Chelsea are moving good players just to make moves or overly appease Marseca. They might be right… but people said they knew what they were doing last summer too, and that turned out to be 100% grade A fictional copium, so we’'ll see.

• After the tragic loss of Diogo Jota, Liverpool are said to have told teams (including Bayern Munich, Barcelona, and some Saudi interest) hard no on selling Luiz Diaz. Before the summer, Diaz and Darwin Nunez always looked like they were on their way out the door… I am skeptical they have rejected all interest, as the amount of times they quietly appear as interested in other attackers that would make sense for them is a little too high in my opinion, especially if the player wants a move for one last big contract. That said, I could easily be wrong here - it’s not a case where everything is going to be ruled by logic.

• In related news, Liverpool are said to be nosing around for a price on Hugo Ekitike, and could also be suitors for Rodrygo, should he finally accept Real Madrid want him to move elsewhere and the Premier League is the only place with teams that can actually afford him.

• Real Madrid have been reported as wanting to sell Rodrygo for months (makes sense, given their forward line), but are also hoping to part ways with Dani Ceballos and Brahim Diaz this summer as well. (Also makes sense.) I know people love to hate on him because he didn’t quite work out at Arsenal, but Ceballos was legit good in the middle of the pitch last year and could be a great depth option for a good CL team. A bit like Fabian Ruiz at PSG… good teams need these types of highly-competent passers that can do other things. I suspect he stays in Spain though.

• Spurs have shocked everyone (including themselves, I think) this week in bringing in Mohammed Kudus from West Ham, and are allegedly close to signing Morgan Gibbs-White from Forest.
  
  Kudus was highly touted coming from Ajax but seems to have lost his way in East London, so it will be interesting to see if he kicks on or flames out under Thomas Frank.
  
  Gibbs-White was a rumoured target of City back in January, and man… I am just not convinced he’s worth that price. From what’s been reported, the MGW deal has a whole lotta meh about it for me.

• It’s always interesting to see who the ‘mongers have tipped as definitely going to move, that have not moved yet. Mbuemo, Gyokeres, Darwin, and Garnacho haven’t budged so far, and it sometimes makes you wonder where it went wrong in the details. Deals are complicated things with many different parties involved all trying to take slices of the pie.
  
  Also, sometimes people just lie for clicks. Though in this day and age, it’s sometimes tricky to see how clicks on anything translate to money.

• Speaking of Brentford or their players… The Bees are signing 35yo Jordan Henderson to a 2-year deal. I would have lost big money on Hendo not going back to Sunderland this summer. They are still arguing with United for the full £65M package for Mbuemo, and have also apparently turned down some bid from Forest for Wissa that was judged way too small.
  
  I would guess they sell both attackers this summer and reload, but it’s sometimes hard to tell with them. Wissa for £25M is obviously not going to happen. For £40m… probably done.

• Back to Gyokeres, the S*n had a VERY interesting little line in it saying he was prepared to wait until the end of the summer window to get a loan to another European club if his move to Arsenal doesn’t materialise.
  
  A Portugeuse source also said the deal was in danger of collapse because Arsenal hadn’t contacted Sporting in three whole days. Which is not a big deal in the grand scheme, but it does feel like negotiating through the press and a fairly aggressive walk back on what was reported previously. Curiouser and curiouser.

• Anthony Elanga, £55M. Are all 30th-80th percentile Premier League players with more than a year on their contract now worth £40-60M? I am super duper not convinced Elanga is £55M-worthy. This feels like “Premier League Premium” gone horribly wrong.

• Stop me if you have heard this before, but Ferran Torres could wind up at Aston Villa.

• Absolutely no one knows what to expect from Brighton’s former wonderkid Evan Ferguson at this point. Injuries have delayed his progress, and he barely played on loan last half season at West Ham. As such, it seems like Brighton and Ferguson’s agent are looking to loan him abroad (to exotic locations like Roma) where he hopefully stays healthy, gets a tan, gets plenty of playing time and vitamin D, and scores a boatload of goals.

• Forest are looking at Malick Fofana - also known as Too Many Fofanas - from our Chelsea rebuild material. We think he’s pretty good.

• The PL is weirdly BUSY this summer. I think the fact that international TV rights went up again, plus the UEFA purse money, plus some teams having too many assets and PSR-type restrictions promoting deal flow means teams are way more aggressive about early buying and selling than recent summers. It also means even some big teams are going to look quite different coming into September. None quite like Club Brugge, where it seems half their squad is going to be chop and changed this window, but some could be close before its over.
  
  We love it.

Have a great weekend! And for those on the Variance Betting sub, expect a new MLS analysis in the next 24 hours. This season has not been great so far, but that’s professional gambling for you. Last PL/Eng Champ/CL season was choppy too, but that had huge returns by the end. Click to subscribe.

—TK

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