Are Bayern Munich serious Champions League contenders?

Saying that Bayern Munich are steamrolling the Bundesliga is about the same as saying water is wet, but surely an all-time big five league record of 15 wins out of 15 in all competitions to start the season merits some attention. Vincent Kompany’s side were knocked out by their first elite Champions League opponents last season as Inter emerged victorious in their quarterfinal tie, but the Rekordmeister very much look like serious contenders this term despite the absence of their brightest young talent.

Jamal Musiala’s nasty injury at the Club World Cup was, of course, terrible to see for everyone. But for Bayern, it was perhaps partly the catalyst for something of a necessary rejig in their attack. They already look better for it with an average of 3.56 goals per game in the Bundesliga this season, up from under 3 last term.

Bayern saw a fair bit of change in terms of attacking personnel in the latest transfer window. It was more in terms of departures as Leroy Sané, Kingsley Coman and Thomas Müller all left, while only Luis Díaz and Nicolas Jackson came in. Both of these arrivals certainly are important, but arguably the most meaningful change has been Harry Kane’s role.

The raw numbers might suggest that Vincent Kompany’s side are trying to extract the maximum out of the 32-year-old striker’s incredible goalscoring abilities. Kane has a whopping 22 goals in just 15 appearances across all competitions this term, and his return of 1.54 goals per 90 in the Bundesliga is by far the best both in the big five leagues this season and across his own 16-season career.

But a closer look reveals the opposite – Bayern are actually getting more out of Kane’s all-round abilities. He is averaging 41.3 live-ball touches per 90 in the league this season, which is the highest in his career as far back as Fbref data goes. This figure has increased by 7 between campaigns, but interestingly, his involvement in the final third has marginally declined. Instead, he has been given a lot more freedom to drop back and pick up the ball in deeper areas before channelling his inner Xabi Alonso.

Premier League fans will know that the ex-Tottenham striker has always had this in his locker, but he wasn’t able to show so much of it for Bayern in previous seasons. He was used as much more of a fixed number nine in his debut campaign, while a couple of other factors limited him last term.

For one, he usually had a pure ball-to-feet playmaker like Musiala operating behind him. The young German creator would get more positional freedom to drift around and pick the ball up in deeper areas, while Kane could only move into the central attacking midfield space he vacated at best. This season, though, he is being paired with a second striker such as Serge Gnabry or Nicolas Jackson. In this setup, either of the two central attackers gets a lot of freedom to drop back as far as they wish with the other occupying the last line. Sometimes, both can even drop simultaneously knowing that Díaz is quite happy to attack the opened space with infield forward runs. There are some very interesting attacking dynamics going on which are tougher to explain over a static medium, so I will defer to the excellent Jon Mackenzie.

Perhaps the more important difference, though, is the fact that Bayern played a much slower possession-oriented style last term. They kept over two-thirds of the ball on average and had the longest sequence time to go with the slowest direct speed, per Opta Analyst. They still top the charts in terms of sequence time this season, but their possession average has dropped to 63.7% and they are joint-second for direct attacks in the Bundesliga.

The German champions’ increased directness often comes from their striker rather than going to him. Kane has probably never been the fastest player on any football pitch he has set foot on, so he isn’t one to consistently outpace defenders in behind. But, he does have the vision and perfect weight of passing to be the one playing those through balls.

Better yet, instead of having his lovely passes greeted by the often unconvincing and indecisive Sané or Coman, Kane is now getting his due return in terms of assists thanks to Díaz’s clinicality. The Colombian winger has hit the ground running and then some in Bavaria as his right-footedness meshes perfectly with Kane’s tendency to drift out towards the left side. The Englishman has set the former Liverpool winger for four goals so far this season, making theirs the most potent combination in the Bundesliga.

The ex-Tottenham striker’s shot-creating live passes have almost doubled from 2.23 to 4.23 between seasons. That Kane can turn into an elite creator pretty much at will should be no surprise to anyone, so what is most impressive is the fact that he has been able to maintain his level of goal-threat all the while. His current rate of 1.54 league goals per 90 is surely unsustainable even for one of the best finishers in the world (and is also being inflated by penalties), but his shots have only dropped from 3.97 to 3.34, he is continuing to get about 1.7 on target, and his npxG has only gone down a smidge and remains around 0.5.

The changes in Bayern’s attacking patterns surely are the reason behind this as well. Kane now gets the support of consistent box presences around him that take some of the defenders’ attention away, and he also tends to arrive in the box later in some instances after dropping deep to start the move.

Whether this is the best version of Kane we have ever seen is difficult to answer due to different team and league contexts, but he is currently very much on pace to better the all-round output from his 2020/21 Premier League season (when he scored 23 goals and provided 14 assists). More importantly, it is exactly what his team needs to become serious Champions League contenders.

Bayern were incredibly dominant in the Bundesliga last season as well, yet almost no one took them too seriously as Champions League contenders because they were far too one-dimensional. The likes of Musiala, Michael Olise and Kane looked sensational when picking apart disciplined deep defences, but Kompany’s side did not seem to have the juice to go toe-to-toe with Europe’s elite in more open and end-to-end games. Now, though, they have the ability to bait a press and hurt their opponent in behind, all while remaining irresistible in the final third either way. A mention must also go to Olise in this regard since he has remained excellent and stepped up big time in the absence of Musiala, maintaining a creative spark in tight spaces.

Between Joshua Kimmich’s qualities as a progressive passer, his partner’s box-to-box abilities and the full backs’ flexibility, Bayern have pretty much all the tools to trouble any opponent with the ball. So, how well they hold up out of possession will quite possibly determine how far they go in the Champions League this season.

We should get a first serious look at that tonight against Paris Saint-Germain. Bayern’s very player-oriented system has been comfortably good enough for domestic opponents, but some cracks did appear against Chelsea a couple of months ago. PSG can be far more fluid than Enzo Maresca’s side, so they should pose a proper test for Bayern’s midfielders and defenders. The front four will also need to do their part out of possession, so we are in for a great all-round contest.

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