Are Birmingham City sneaky promotion favorites?

The Championship has rightfully earned a reputation for being one of the most chaotic leagues in European football, and this season might be shaping up to be another barnburner. Through the first half of the season, it looked like Coventry were going to cruise to the title, in no small part due to their set-piece proficiency. There was an eight point gap between themselves and 2nd place Middlesbrough. Now? The gap has decreased to just 1 between the two clubs (62 points versus 61). Meanwhile, 3rd place Millwall (56 points) and 4th place Ipswich (54 points) aren’t too far behind, with the latter having two games in hand. It’s still likely Coventry and Middlesbrough will both earn automatic promotion, but it’s not quite as clear cut compared to a couple of months ago.

As is the case with the Championship, there’s also a logjam of clubs who are trying to break into top 6 positioning. This is particularly true with the 6th and final spot for the promotion playoff. There’s only a two point gap between 6th place Derby County and 16th place Swansea City. On the surface, Birmingham City are not a major player in the Championship this season. They’re mid-table in 11th place with a +4 goal differential through 32 matches. There are five teams ahead of them in the chase for 6th, with Hull in 5th place (54 points) possibly too far ahead.

And yet, one can argue Birmingham are in a good position at the moment. Since the turn of the new year, their 15 points is 5th most during that stretch. It’s gotten them into the play-off race after languishing in lower mid-table through the first half of the season. Even more interesting is if you peak under the hood, their underlying numbers suggest they should be a lot higher. Both Opta and Statsbomb have them with the 3rd highest expected goal difference in the league, closer to competing at the very top than their current place in the standings.

What’s noticeable when watching Birmingham with the ball is they look to control play more than your average club in the Championship. On a basic level, they’re 6th in average possession at 54.4%. More granular numbers also illustrate their playing style. According to Opta Analyst, they’re 6th in sequences featuring 10+ passes, passes per sequence, 7th in build up attacks, and 8th in sequence time. Birmingham’s zones of control (also via Opta Analyst) further shows how much they try to control play.

Birmingham tend to have a back four setup during buildup, with one of the fullbacks close to the CBs. It can occasionally resemble a box midfield within a 4-2-4. The pivot often ends up quite narrow, although occasionally they’ll tinker with having one of the midfielders drop into the backline to create a situational back three. They’ll also try to have the pivot split apart in which one comes closer to receive while the other moves forward. If timed correctly, it’s helped them create space in the middle to progress with speed. 

In the 4+2, they’ll sometimes have issues controlling play when up against the opposition press. Part of it is because spacing can be an issue for them, with guys being too close together in certain moments which makes it easier to get pressured and concede a high turnover. If opponents are able to bother Birmingham’s buildup, especially through man-to-man marking, you’ll often see them resort to attempting hail mary lobs along the flank and hope for individual talent to shine through. With Demarai Grey and Patrick Roberts on the left and right flanks respectively, they’re of a high enough quality for the strategy to not be totally doomed. If all else fails, they’ll look to go long and hope to create quick attacks from flick-ons or quick forward passes off of 2nd ball regains. However, it’s not something they rely on too often. Opta has them 19th in the championship for long passes attempted, making up only just under 13% of their attempted passes overall.

In the middle third, one thing that’s been beneficial is having center-backs who are comfortable on the ball. Both Phil Neumann and Christoph Klarer are capable of carrying into space, so when given the opportunity against a passive mid-block, they’ll provoke the opposition into stepping up and creating passing lanes into the final third. As well, Birmingham have had some success in recycling possession backwards in the hopes of finding space against the opposing block so they can play through them and create artificial transitions. It’s become more and more prevalent among possession heavy sides in Europe, and Birmingham have been no exception in the Championship. It’s helped them create faster sequences in ways they’ve otherwise not been able to.

In quick transitions is where Jay Stansfield comes into play, with his varied attacking movement helping create opportunities for himself and others. His 14 goals and assists have him tied for 7th in the league, and when accounting for quality of competition, 2025-26 has been his best season yet.

The final third for Birmingham features a ton of crossing. No team has attempted more crosses in the league than their 525, 21 more than 2nd place Coventry. However, their success rate of 18.5% only ranks 17th in the league. On the left, Kai Wagner has been an exception as someone they’ve relied on in recent weeks to deliver several dangerous crosses into the box. On the right, there’ll sometimes be interesting passages in which Bright Osayi-Samuel is launching forward from RB via third man runs to create dangerous short-range crosses or cut-backs. Beyond that, Birmingham can lack ideas and can settle for speculative attempts.

Teams who like to maintain possession often try to be proactive without the ball, and Birmingham are no exception. According to Opta Analyst, they’re 2nd in passes per defensive action, 6th in high turnovers generated, and 7th in pressed sequences. Anything which tries to quantify aggressiveness out of possession, Birmingham are likely to be above average in the league.

Against coordinated buildup routines from goal-kicks, Birmingham have tried defending in a diamond formation to have the front two defending the opposing CBs. Other times, they’ve pressed from a 4-4-2 setup. The near-side striker looks to trigger the press with a curling sprint, while the other forward looks to cover the opposition’s pivot. It’s something you often see from teams out of possession, and when done correctly, it can create uncomfortable situations along the flank and even high turnovers. Against Championship teams of higher quality, leaving space available on the far side has left them vulnerable to conceding dangerous switches of play.

Birmingham’s mid-block has been decent, generally not allowing much space between the lines and having the wide players jump to apply some pressure. At their best, they’ve been able to transition into a formidable press and win the ball back. The counterpress has been hot and cold, so when they’re not able to keep opponents boxed in, it could end up in fast breaks going the other way. Also, issues with how they try to play through the middle has made it harder for the counterpress to work as intended. They’re tied for 7th in most fast breaks conceded, but are only tied for 6th least goals against. Even still, they’ve also suffered some bad luck. Only four teams have a worse conversion rate conceded than Birmingham’s 11.48%, and all four clubs (West Bromwich, Sheffield Wednesday, Queens Park Rangers, Leicester City) are below them in the standings.

So how much of a threat are Birmingham in terms of getting into the top 6? Their underlying numbers would suggest they’re of that quality. Expected points aren’t the end all be all, in part due to not including game state situations. However, Opta’s model has them ranked 3rd at 54.4. The model has thought of Birmingham much higher than the league table would suggest throughout the entire season. Outside of a tough mini stretch of games, the numbers have been quite encouraging. It’s arguable that the tape is less encouraging than the metrics themselves, but even then, there’s the outlines of a formidable side.

One of the most interesting things about Birmingham this season is there’s almost two different versions of them, depending on whether they’re at home or playing away. Their home form has been very good, with their 31 points ranking 4th in the league. Away from St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park, their 15 points ranks a lowly 18th. The underlying numbers tell a similar story. Via Statsbomb, their expected goal difference at home is an impressive 0.95 per 90 versus a paltry -0.07 away. It should be noted that only five Championship teams this season are in the positive for expected goal difference away from home, but the drop off remains significant.

Birmingham’s attack and defense both suffer noticeable drop-offs when looking at the home/away splits, although the attack worsens even more. They go from having the 3rd most non-penalty expected goals for versus 15th in their away fixtures. Some of it has to do with them being worse at building through the press without the home crowd. Even though they can create some interesting problems for opponents, they’ve been less likely to make the correct reads under pressure. It leads to them having less opportunities in the final third compared to their home fixtures. They’ve also arguably been too cautious in trying to win the ball back in their away fixtures. Birmingham are 11th in pressures in the opposition half, and 18th in counterpressures. At home, those rankings jump to 9th and 3rd respectively. It’s possible they’re leaving opportunities on the table by being less proactive without the ball. 

Unsurprisingly, a lot of Birmingham’s best performances have been at home. They outshot Swansea 23-9 in a 1-0 victory in the early weeks of the season. November saw them blitz Millwall 4-0 in early November, and beat Norwich 4-1 later in the month. Even their FA Cup loss over the weekend against Leeds was encouraging because they made it tough on the Premier League side to handle pressure, including in midfield. 

Going forward, Birmingham have the opportunity to continue gaining ground in the chase for the top 6. There are tough matches against Millwall, Middlesbrough, and Derby before the spring international break, with two of the three being away (Millwall, Derby). However, there’s also multiple matches versus mid-table and lower mid-table opponents. If they can find a way for their home form to travel on the road, along with having better luck with their conversion rate against, the odds of them making the promotion play-offs could noticeably improve. For a club that’s been chasing a return to the Premier League since suffering relegation in 2011; there’s a chance, albeit a smaller one than others, for Birmingham to find themselves participating in the 2026 Championship play-offs.

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