One of the biggest stories of the summer transfer window centred around Vinícius Júnior. With just one year remaining on his Real Madrid contract at the time, the 26-year-old winger found himself at a major crossroads in his career. Of course, he could continue straight by working out an extension with Los Blancos, but a turn towards London also seemed a real possibility as Arsenal were prepared to make a significant offer for his services.

Difficult as it would have been for the Gunners to reach an agreement with the Brazilian star over a financial package that would not ruin their wage structure, they never really got an opportunity to get deep into negotiations. Sensing external pressure, Real Madrid reportedly upped their offer to the region of €30 million per year, quickly agreeing to a six-year deal.

We can pretty confidently say that Los Blancos are likely to regret the eye-watering salary they have given Vinícius in the latter half of this new deal. They will cross that bridge when they get there – and perhaps hope that someone else bails them out midway – but the bigger concern is that the team might even be better without him at present.

Even before this saga began to unfold, we at The Transfer Flow were arguing for a Vinícius Júnior departure from Real Madrid’s perspective. Putting aside any off-field concerns such as the events surrounding Xabi Alonso’s departure, the Brazilian international’s position on the pitch was proving challenging as far as finding a balanced attacking formula was concerned. Some of the world’s most decorated and highly-regarded coaches had a tough time with this task, so there was little hope for a seemingly washed José Mourinho.

Real Madrid certainly did not start the season in convincing fashion, losing to Real Betis and Atlético Madrid, besides needing late Carlos Espí winners against the likes of Espanyol and Elche. Questions over the team’s balance swiftly resurfaced, and the left winger was the likeliest to be dropped in an attacking rejig; the free-scoring Mbappé was averaging a goal per game.

As it happened, Vinícius ended up making Mourinho’s life easier by getting himself suspended for four league games for an indefensible hair pull after coming off the bench against Villarreal. He did start the subsequent Champions League game, but it was only after he went off and Roma refused to defend corners that his side earned the victory. Sevilla were then dismantled 4-1, and he was not directly involved in any of the goals even as he started in the win over Leipzig by the same scoreline. Most pertinently of all, Real Madrid defeated eternal rivals Barcelona away from home last weekend while he watched, bringing themselves back within three points of the top of La Liga.

Vinícius will only be eligible to appear in the league on the other side of the November international break, so there still is a fair bit of time before he may return to the lineup in a big game. At present, though, there are some compelling arguments to be made for keeping him out of it – if that is at all possible while preserving team harmony.

Although Vinícius only has one league goal so far this season, he hasn’t been bad at all in isolation. His average of 0.47 npxG and 0.27 xA per 90 in La Liga places him around the 90th percentile among positional peers and represents an increase from his last two seasons, though his tally is still lower than that of a couple of his teammates. Notably, it is significantly higher than alternative left winger Yan Diomande, who has averaged 0.27 npxG+xA per 90 in the league to this point.

Despite this apparent drop in attacking production from the left side, Real Madrid look like a better team with the Ivorian international on the pitch. This is mainly because he provides better balance to their attack for a couple of reasons:

For one, Diomande is more positionally disciplined than Vinícius. The Brazilian international is increasingly developing a tendency to drift infield high up the pitch, moving into areas where he can end up running into Mbappé, who likes to drift towards the left from the striker position. On the other hand, the former Leipzig winger stays well wide close to the touchline on the left, leaving more space for the French forward to move around.

More importantly, though, Diomande has a significantly lower usage rate than Vinícius. Usage rate is a stat adopted from basketball that measures the proportion of a team’s possession-ending actions that an individual player makes, effectively measuring the proportion of possessions they “use”, so to speak. High-volume shooters, creators and/or dribblers typically tend to have high usage rates; Vinícius firmly falls in that category, as does Mbappé. In simple terms, these players tend to attempt decisive final actions (such as shots or key passes) much more often than their teammates. A lack of high-usage players in a side can lead to a toothless attack, but having too many can also be a problem by making the team disjointed at the sharp end.

The likes of Arda Güler and Jude Bellingham can also be higher-usage players when given more attacking freedom, though they are able to strike a better balance when required. Diomande has also shown the ability to lower his usage rate at Real Madrid, having never been an exceptionally high-usage player when compared to peers of a similar profile. Even though he is an incredible dribbler who can dance away from multiple opponents in one sequence and attempts a very high volume of take-ons, he has a very high success rate (63.6% this term) and takes relatively fewer shots. Particularly after moving to the Spanish capital, he has shown a preference for passing from the edge of the box rather than going for the kill himself, thus keeping attacks going after carrying the ball into a dangerous area.

To sum it up, Diomande opens up more space for his supremely talented teammates by sticking to his position out wide on the left, and better platforms them to make telling contributions in and around the box by keeping attacking sequences going, as opposed to terminating them himself.

Diomande’s superior ball retention is not just valuable in the attacking third – it also helps solve one of Mourinho’s biggest challenges in the present tactical landscape. The Portuguese coach has never been one to coordinate too many in-possession patterns, instead letting his players do what comes naturally to them. This can serve to unlock some top-end talent with squads like that of Real Madrid, but it is a problem in the build-up against the increasingly sophisticated high blocks and presses they may be faced with.

Roma’s relatively simple fully player-oriented high block exposed this issue to the fullest, as their visitors barely showed concepts of a plan to progress the ball up the pitch in their Champions League encounter. The biggest share of their passes in the first half were played within the defensive third, with Thibaut Courtois ranking second for touches in his side behind Ibrahima Konaté since he was the only one who could stand on the ball without quickly being pressed. Real Madrid’s only idea to try and find a way through involved one of the number eights dropping to offer an option, but this just resulted in a few passes being played before the ball was cycled back to Courtois; Roma’s midfielders easily tracked their opposite numbers.

Preferring to stay high and wide, Vinícius was largely an onlooker in the first period; only opposition striker Donyell Malen had fewer touches than his tally of 18. His most notable contribution came in the 51st minute when he decided to drop back and offer a passing option out of the build-up, but his attempted flick forward was intercepted and led to Roma retaking the lead.

Fast forward to El Clásico, and Real Madrid found themselves facing a somewhat similar challenge. Barcelona’s more proactive press meant that a standoff was unlikely, but the price for a poor build-up was equally likely to be higher. Mourinho’s side funnelled their possession play through the left side in this match, avoiding the more dangerous presser of Barcelona’s wingers in Anthony Gordon. They used their own left winger to get out of pressure, with Diomande accumulating the majority of his 66 touches in his defensive half.

The Ivorian international’s excellent close control proved very useful on the night as it also helped facilitate Marc Cucurella’s selective advances. Indeed, it was the two left wing players who combined in the build-up to the opening goal in Real Madrid’s all-important victory.

Besides these in-possession challenges, Vinícius’ inclusion in the side also complicated Real Madrid’s out-of-possession task. They always have one defensive passenger in Mbappé, and the Brazilian forward most often makes it two. He is currently averaging 0.92 defensive contributions per 90 in the league this season, contributing far less than any remotely helpful winger, let alone Diomande.

The ex-Leipzig attacker isn’t the most switched on in the high press, but dependably does his duties on the ball-side. He took his defensive contributions average up to 3.3 after making four tackles and interceptions against Barcelona, including three in the defensive half. Thus, he did enough to keep the opposition right-back quiet, playing a small part in limiting Lamine Yamal’s threat.

Real Madrid are unlikely to be able to lock games down out of possession under Mourinho. They haven’t shown the tactical sophistication to put together a suffocating press, nor have attackers that produce the required defensive work-rate and quality to form an unbreachable deep block. So, the best they can hope for are games like El Clásico, in which they kept the free-flowing Barcelona to a seasonal low tally of 1.19 xG despite allowing 18 shots. At least 10 players need to contribute if opponents are to be restricted to low-quality chances, so Diomande is more useful than Vinícius in this regard.

In an ideal world, starting the Ivorian and using the Brazilian as a super-sub would be the best way forward for Real Madrid, but whether Vinícius would accept that is a different matter. Barcelona’s ever-depleting defence could open up the title race, but Los Blancos must stick to a winning formula if they are to have a chance of capitalising.

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