Arsenal’s 24-25 season was a bit odd by any measure. They finished second in the Premier League while performing fifteen points worse than the season before, you know, when they also finished second.
They made it to the Champions League semi-finals, only to be defeated by eventual winners PSG, a team they had dominated in the Swiss rounds six months prior. And they did it all while plagued by slightly odd refereeing in the first half of the season, and consistent injuries across all of their front line in the latter half.
It was mostly a successful season… but odd.
How good were they last year?
Non-penalty xG | Goals | |
Scored | 53.2 | 69 |
Conceded | 32.3 | 34 |
So the good news is Arsenal had the best defense in the league last season. Just 34 goals conceded was the same amount as Manchester City when they won the title in 23-24, and only 5 above Arsenal’s league best that year as well.
However… it came at the cost of the attack, which in turn meant a LOT more draws instead of wins - nine of them, in fact. Which is why the points total suffered. The dots, they are connected.
You can argue that Arteta had to go tactically conservative because of all the injuries, but the reality is that this story was written before the attackers all broke. (Though that definitely did not help.)
To put it another way, you can’t win the league with 14 draws, and the way you avoid draws is by scoring more goals. In order to win the Premier League in the future, Arsenal need to return to the stompy goalscoring capability displayed in the second half of the 23-24 campaign.
How they go and do that is a slightly more complicated question to answer, but they certainly worked to address the problem in the transfer window.
What is Mikel Arteta’s deal?
Arteta is an excellent coach compared to almost anyone else. He’s a willing learner. He’s capable of coaching an outstanding defense. And he just missed winning a title two seasons ago, while being slightly underpowered financially compared to the true giants of the league. (I’m not saying Arsenal are poor, but they also aren’t City, Chelsea, United or even Liverpool.)
That’s not to say Arteta can’t continue to improve. Tactical conservatism can be a problem. Squad rotation was a problem in the past, and could still be one now? Arsenal fans rose to defend this when I mentioned it on social media, but we don’t actually know if Arteta has been better at rotating to keep players fresh, or because he was forced to do so because there have been so many injuries.
Anyway, he’s not an idiot. In fact, there is genuinely a lot to love. He can absolutely coach a stout defense. He’s been better about rotating in young players in recent years. He’s gone deep into the Champions League. He gets it with regard to set pieces. He MIGHT EVEN start to unleash the long throws!
For those who are new around here, Ted’s been advocating these for a decade*.
Rival fans love to sling shit at anyone they possibly can, but there are only a handful of other coaches in the entire world that Arsenal could use to replace Arteta that might be considered an upgrade.
How has the squad changed?
It’s been a spendy summer, especially considering the lack of outgoings.
Yes, they cleared decent wages off the books, but TransferMarkt has Arsenal at around £200m in net spend thus far. For reference, Liverpool are nearer to £160M net, and Arsenal’s last season was £20m. For those who struggle with math(s), that’s the same as this season, but with an extra 0.
Players out: LW Raheem Sterling, LB Kieran Tierney, RB Takehiro Tomiyasu, DM Number 5
In addition to these players who got Premier League minutes last season, Arsenal also finally got Nuno Tavares and Marquinhos off their books.
Players in: DM Martin Zubimendi, ST Viktor Gyokeres, W Noni Madueke, DF Cristhian Mosquera, DM Christian Norgaard, GK Kepa Arrizabalaga
I was lukewarm on Arsenal’s recruitment last summer, but for the most part I like these moves. Zubimendi was a deal that had been in the works for almost a year and was absolutely necessary.
Madueke was an opportunistic steal away from Chelsea’s selling policy. He’s better than most of the attackers that have gone for more this summer, and the right age profile. Is he a discipline problem or lazy or a headcase? Given Arteta hates those types of players, I’m going to guess Arsenal did all the homework to determine he’s not.
Norgaard is a solid depth and leadership pickup at the right price, Kepa is fine and the price was right, and Mosquera is a young CB addition that feels like an exceptional blend of risk vs reward.
The only transfer In that Arsenal made this summer that I am on the fence about is Gyokeres. Yes, there are a ton of goals in Portugal, but he wasn’t terribly exciting in the English Championship. The age profile is wrong for a big CF signing, and the fee is one you’d want to pay for a player with star power, not one who will potentially be on the decline for his entire contract.
Don’t expect this production in England, but do pray for it.
However… he fills a desperate need Arsenal had, brings something to the CF position they have lacked, and while the fee is high, it’s not vomit-inducing. I sense this was Arsenal being practical without risking breaking the bank on a potential mistake.
I don’t hate the Gyokeres deal and think he’ll probably be fine — I just wish he was someone better. It’s like dating a model and then complaining, “But I wanted a supermodel.” No one is going to feel sorry for you.
Are there more players on the way? A deal for Eberechi Eze has been floating around the press all summer, but it’s hard to see him fitting any needs perfectly and the price is high. Rodrygo was the far stronger whisper, but like most players, he loves it in Spain and seems to really want to stay in Madrid.
My suspicion writing this at the start of August, is any further incomings needed outgoings, and they haven’t found those yet.
A quick summary:
xG + xA | OBV | Minutes Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
Out | 6.78 | 5.03 | 3997 |
In | 49.67 | 36.9 | 18366 |
What do they need to do to win a trophy?
The first thing Arsenal need to do is to stay healthy. Remember, this is a team that finished in the final 4 of the Champions League and coasted to second place in a raucous Premier League with various stars injured throughout the year. The season before this, they were so close to edging out City for the PL title.
Beyond that, they need to score more goals. Like, a lot more goals. It will take another 20-30 more goals with that same defensive record to bring home a title. The shot volume has to go up (there were 2.5 fewer in 24-25 than 23-24), and the set pieces, they need to remain good.
After that, fans have to hope that City remain somewhat fragile defensively, and that Liverpool probably pick up a significant injury or two in the spots where they have little depth. (Think less attack and more DM/CB.)
Projected best XI and prediction
My evaluations are based on a gambling model that strongly believes it’s folly to bet against Pep Guardiola in any league competition. On paper, Arsenal are a close second to Liverpool in terms of obvious team strength this summer, and have better depth outside the attack. Picking amongst the top 3 with the extra info the model doesn’t know is extremely tight.
This is the best squad Arsenal have had in fuckknows how long. It could happen. I think they’ll finish 3rd, and the group has voted them better than that, but there’s almost no gap between the top 3.
Prediction: 2nd
*including the OLD SKOOL StatsBomb style bombs here. Greatest gif evar.
