Data from two weeks into the season does not mean anything, but this newsletter is something that Ted and I do for fun, and sometimes you just want to look at funny graph. Here, please enjoy funny graph.

Chelsea’s attack looks completely rejuvenated by Xabi Alonso, as well as Morgan Rogers and a finally healthy Cole Palmer. They’re getting a spectacular volume of high-quality shots, and they’re taking lots of risks going forward, seemingly unafraid of conceding big chances in transition.

Meanwhile, here’s a map of the shots that their opponents this Sunday have conceded over their first two games.

The loss of William Saliba does not appear to have affected Arsenal’s defense at all. Christian Mosquera has been excellent, and if his reported knock keeps him out, Ezri Konsa is about as good of a 4th center back as you’re going to find on any team in the world. Declan Rice, despite being held together by kinesio tape, continues to look like the best defensive midfielder in the world.

I don’t have a clue what kind of game we’re going to get from these two teams, but it’s probably going to be an entertaining and high quality one, even if it does end up being low scoring.

Over on Variance Betting, Ted has 5 Premier League bets and 3 on MLS. A couple of them are betting the over, with some defenses looking pretty shaky to start the season. That trend is likely to change as everyone gets used to new personnel and managers, but for now, chaos seems to reign in the Prem.

Early in the season, the bet sizes are small, with good information lacking. But we’ll be up to full bets soon, after we’ve got 5 matches of data. Subscribe to Variance Betting if you’re interested in learning how to become a smarter gambler.

With Man United’s two most favorable fixtures behind them, quite a few good FPL players are selling out of Bryan Mbeumo. If that’s because you had always planned on using him for the first two weeks, then selling to make room for someone else, I get it. But if you are overreacting to him missing an absolute sitter last week, I would not do that.

Once again, obviously 2 games is not a sample to base any predictions off. But I include it here just to show that if you liked Mbeumo last year or at the start of this season, you should probably continue to like him now. He’s United’s highest usage attacker. He’s getting into the box for shooting opportunities more than Matheus Cunha, Marcus Rashford and Amad Diallo. Unless you think United stink and are about to fall off a cliff, you should probably believe in this guy’s ability to score 10+ goals this season.

So Mbeumo’s still in my team. One United player I am moving off of very soon though is Harry Maguire, who I really just wanted for the favorable fixtures, and got burned on. I’ll be swapping him for Malick Thiaw, and you guys should probably consider what Newcastle players you like and that will fit into your team. Solio’s betting market-based model really likes their upcoming fixtures, and they’ve looked a bit better than expected in their first two games of the season.

If you had a wildcard or free hit planned for this week, that makes sense. But if you didn’t, it’s probably a good week to smack that triple captain chip on Erling Haaland or another Manchester City starter. Home vs. Coventry is as favorable as fixtures get, and no one’s going to have a double game week that you need to save it for in the first half of the season.

And as always, if you want to stay caught up on the news you need to know for FPL, the easiest way is subscribing to LazyFPL:

The best place to find listings for your country is probably LiveSoccerTV.

Stuttgart vs. Köln — Two teams with better attack than defense + the Bundesliga Friday game always rules. This is not gambling advice but I’d probably love the over here.

Real Betis vs. Real Madrid — The first handful of games have been easy for Madrid, but here’s a real test. They’ll probably need to have some actual ideas instead of vibing it out and winning on talent alone.

PSG vs. Monaco — Wonder what those squad dynamics are like in the principality after that wild deadline day?

Inter Milan vs. Napoli — An early season marquee showdown and litmus test for two teams that look promising but have some holes too. No idea what we’re going to get here.

Arsenal vs. Chelsea — Xabi Alonso’s boys have been total chaos agents in their first two games so I’m looking forward to seeing if they can suck Arsenal into an athletics meet.

Ryan Benson at Opta Analyst thinks Kobbie Mainoo has added to his game and is on track to becoming an all-around midfield monster.

Jonathan Liew at The Guardian argues that all the expensive midfielders that moved this summer are pretty… well… mid.

Mark Ogden at ESPN warns that the market is “dangerously out of control.”

Jason Anderson at The Cutback analyzed what Rebeca Bernal brings to Manchester United women.

Matthew Doyle at Tactics Free Zone graded every MLS team’s transfer window.

Jake Entwistle at Scouted looked into South Africa’s recently improved talent development and its pipeline to MLS.

Graham Scott at The Athletic was not a fan of Mike Dean’s recent interview where he told wild stories about generally being unprofessional.

Callum Brierley at Total Football Analysis broke down Ilyas Ansah’s game and why Hull City spent so much on the Union Berlin attacker.

If you enjoyed this newsletter, we’d appreciate it if you would forward it to a friend. If you’re that friend, welcome! You can subscribe to The Transfer Flow here. We also have a podcast where we go in depth on transfer news and rumours every week. We’re on YouTube here, and you can subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify by searching for “The Transfer Flow Podcast.” If you’re interested in football betting, check out this post on why we started Variance Betting.