This preview was written by Patrick van Straaten, who you can find on Twitter here and Bluesky here. Pat is the co-host of The Transfer Flow Podcast, and in a previous life, he was on the YouTube channel Football Daily.

Ambition is the most dangerous word in football. The desire to do more, to win more, to go higher is baked into every sport, but in football, ambition is overdetermined, it covers too much ground. The fans may have the ambition to beat their rivals. An ambitious sporting director might aim to establish a winning dynasty. The manager’s ambition might be simply keeping his job. The owners — well, their ambitions may be murky. But often ambition comes to be seen as an end in itself, and is not matched with foresight or discipline. We can’t sell him, that would show a lack of ambition. They played for a draw today, they weren’t ambitious enough. If you’re not careful, ambition can mean overreaching, taking foolish risks, and losing view of the long-term goal.

Aston Villa are a very ambitious club.

Sacking Steven Gerrard for Unai Emery in October 2022, Villa found a manager whose European pedigree matched their own (“Aston Villa's appointment of Unai Emery is sign of the club's ambition and determination to make a mark in Europe,” wrote Phil McNulty at the time), and since then have backed him with 25 new players, receiving seventh, fourth, and sixth-place finishes in return. 68 and 66 points in the last two campaigns are the highest tallies the club has achieved in the 38-game Premier League era, and in Europe, the run to the 24/25 quarter-final surpassed both of Emery’s attempts at Paris Saint-Germain.

But as good as the results have been on paper, they’ve been achieved against a backdrop of misguided spending — a habit whose health hazards are finally catching up to Villa in 2025. Can success on-field right the financial ship? Or will Emery’s ambition sink under a PSR wave?

After making the Champions League in 23/24, Villa went huge last summer, with a £153m outlay the most expensive window in their history, and the sixth consecutive year in which they had spent nine figures. However, over the course of the season, they made back over a quarter-billion in sales — three-quarters of that coming from Jhon Duran, Moussa Diaby, and Douglas Luiz — and with the added burden of UCL football, they didn’t make the progress they’d have liked.

Things got better towards the end of the campaign, Manchester United clown-show aside. Having settled into a mid-block, Villa won eight of their final ten, creating nearly 6 xG more than their opponents, as Maatsen finally unseated Lucas Digne at left-back and Marco Asensio took some on-ball responsibility off Youri Tielemans, allowing Emery to field Amadou Onana and Boubacar Kamara together in tougher fixtures.

Of course, it was hardly a gloomy campaign. Champions League lights brightened things, as the Villans beat Bayern Munich and eventual European champs PSG, but domestically, the Midlanders were overhauled by a raft of rivals, their PL xG difference slipping to 8th despite a minor improvement on the previous campaign.

The problem was that they needed a major uptick. You might not want to say it passing through the Midlands, but Villa were simply not that good in 23/24, with the seventh best attack in the division and eleventh best defence, and it was only a thirteen-goal overperformance against xG in attack which brought them fourth spot. The hope, then, was that a spending spree could bolster the weak areas of the squad and see team quality rise to meet the heights of their league finish, but injuries, teething problems, and European commitments meant their many signings soaked up little gametime for the outlay, with Onana playing 1600 minutes, Ian Maatsen 1100, while Donyell Malen, Marcus Rashford, Ross Barkley, Axel Disasi, Marco Asensio, Jaden Philogene, and Andres Garcia averaged 450 apiece.

As expected, the finishing heater cooled off, and the Villans missed another season in the Champions League by a single point, a miserable final day making them one of just eight top-flight sides to lose to Manchester United in the 24/25 Premier League.

The Europa awaits. At least Emery will enjoy that.

You could say this of basically any Unai Emery season, but it really was a triple-distilled extract-of-Emery campaign for Villa. Runs to the FA Cup semi and UCL quarters got supporters amped, but failures in key moments (United, Crystal Palace, Monaco) cost the club a shot at a first trophy since the 90s. Call these guys Red October because they don’t light up the radar:

Villa were rancid on the counter and couldn’t disrupt opposition play, leaving their defence with a lot to do, while the right-back slot was a weakness all year, Emery cycling through Matty Cash, Kosta Nedeljkovic, Ezri Konsa, Disasi, Andres Garcia, and teenage midfielder Lamare Bogarde in an attempt to plug the leak. The consequence was that the team went from roughly +1.5 shots per 90 to just +0.4, and on the road — a perennial Emery issue — Villa were incredibly soft, with a -9 xG difference, just ahead of the three relegated clubs. It was only strong home form (fourth best in the league) and setpieces which kept the team afloat, as they put up the best xG difference off dead balls in the division, and a +8 margin in real goals.

That’s a strong and replicable weapon for the team to have, but their overall lack of control was troubling. Whether it was the extra burden of Champions League games, or the departure of Douglas Luiz, Villa rarely looked like they were in charge of their matches.

Youri Tielemans was voted player of the year, and, as usual, was excellent on the ball, but in 23/24 he’d most often been deployed in the 10 space, giving Villa an extra midfielder alongside Luiz and Kamara. Luiz gone, Tielemans dropped deeper, but his preference for playing fast and vertical meant Villa lost possession security: though the club managed roughly the same number of final third entries per 90 as the season before, they dropped from 53% possession to 50%, while also seeing a 10% decrease on box entries, plus slides in shot volume and quality.

There’s more to come from the Benelux trio of Maatsen, Malen, and Onana, and the hot finish, plus standout performers like Konsa and Morgan Rogers, do provide reasons to be cheerful. But the transfer window is likely to be considerably more depressing.

As mentioned above, Villa have been spending like maniacs since their return to the Premier League, and not just on transfer fees. 91% of club revenue went on player wages in 23/24, and they only evaded the wrath of PSR this summer by selling the women’s team to themselves (thanks for this innovation, Chelsea). Despite the enormous Saudi liferaft provided by the sales of Duran and Diaby, UEFA have already docked them €11m for failing FFP, and selling players could prove harder than Monchi would like too, with even unwanted names like Matty Cash and Leander Dendoncker earning close to £100,000 a week.

Players out: FW Marcus Rashford, AM Marco Asensio, CB Axel Disasi

These are all loan returns who Villa opted to not sign permanently.

To make some wiggle room, Villa have also paid out Philippe Coutinho’s contract and have had to send Enzo Barrenechea, a guy they might have liked to use, to Benfica after a solid showing as both a passer and defender at Valencia. Sketchy internet sleuthing suggests the Coutinho exit should save Villa £6.5m on the books over the next year, and academy grad Kaine Kesler-Hayden, who joins Coventry, brings in another couple million. Well done, I guess?

Players in: CB Yasin Özcan, ST Zépiqueno Redmond GK Marco Bizot

The back door might be busy, the front door is growing dusty. So far the only incomings are 34-year-old Brest keeper Bizot (a move so non-descript that Transfermarkt doesn’t even guess at the fee), and teenage striker Redmond from Feyenoord, and a teenage center back from Kasimpasa named Yasin Özcan, who looks like he might be a very nice pickup at £6m.

Any real surgery to the squad will hinge on sales, and Villa will need to spend less than they make, while trying to get better.

By god, that’s Monchi’s music.

A rather pointless summary:

But one that shows Villa did lose some attacking output with its departing loanees that they need to replace.

For the fifth consecutive season, Ollie Watkins was Villa’s top scorer in 24/25, racking up 24 goal involvements and featuring in every league game, the only player at the club to do so. He was also the only Villa player with over 0.5 xG+xA p90 and more than 1000 minutes, and across the league, he ranked fifth for total non-penalty xG, behind Erling Haaland, Yoane Wissa, Mohamed Salah, and Alexander Isak. But with Duran departing for Saudi in January, it’s unclear how Villa plan to cover a forward who turns thirty before the year is out.

2500 league minutes is still a lot of gametime, but it’s Watkins’ lowest tally since 2015/16, and this campaign saw the lowest dribbles attempted, dribble success, and second lowest fouls suffered of his Villa spell, while one study put him in the slower half of the Premier League’s centre-forwards. Though none of this is conclusive, and it’s certainly not fatal — Watkins has the strength and smarts to remain a useful forward even at reduced speed — the team currently asks him to make regular sprints into the channel, and gain territory with carrying, a burden exacerbated by the move away from conventional wingers, with Jacob Ramsey and John McGinn often used on the flanks. A narrowing skillset requires a narrowing portfolio.

Now a target for Manchester United, Watkins’ half-decade at the club and previous contract extension mean his book value is negligible, and he could fetch Villa a useful profit if they can broker a big sale. If they can turn him into Lois Openda, then great. If United play hardball (unlikely from the guys who brought you the Cunha and Mbeumo deals, but possible), it would leave an enormous hole to fill, and not much money with which to do it.

If Watkins were to leave, fans could at least console themselves with the emergence of Morgan Rogers. The 23-year-old — who grew up under half an hour from Villa Park — featured all over the attack, scoring eight and assisting a further ten to earn a nomination for Young Player of the Year.

Rogers doesn’t jump off the radar in any particular direction, but looks solid across the board, and in the Champions League he excelled, completing 2.7 dribbles per 90 compared to 1.9 in the Prem, and rising from 1.45 shots to 2.3. After one full season at the top level, it’s already easy to summon up a definitive image of the player: power-carrying through the midfield zone or running in behind, an open-field killer. And when a retreating defence leaves room for a decisive pass, he can execute that beautifully too.

Look at all those throughballs! This is a guy with a tonne of passing skill — just check out his assist for Rashford against Brighton in April — which is why it would be nice to get him on the ball more and see what else he can do. 26 passes attempted per 90 puts Rogers in the bottom 13% of all attacking midfielders and wingers, and he mostly made the difference in broken play, with seven of his ten Premier League assists coming in counter-pressing situations or quick transitions by my count. One on one with anyone, Rogers is a nightmare to face. But against a sitting backline, he hasn’t yet shown the necessary greed for the ball and lock-picking ability to be a conventional attacking midfielder.

In fact, this was a problem for the entire Villa attack, as Malen, Watkins, Ramsey, Leon Bailey and John McGinn were all less involved than average for their positions too, making it no surprise that Marco Asensio looked so electric when he took charge as the number 10. The Spaniard demanded possession and was a threat to pass, shoot, or dribble, sucking in defenders and allowing Rogers to find space between the lines or out wide. In the final ten games of the season, Rogers only once played started in the middle, but produced seven goal involvements and roughly half his xA.

Rogers is still young and Villa should see if he can take on more responsibility, but right now, he looks best suited to a second-striker role, coming inside from the flank to the top of the box, where his strength, snappy passing, and darting runs can tease open defences. That leaves Villa in desperate need of a real offensive hub, who dominates Villa’s final-third possession, passes into the box relentlessly, and creates that room for Rogers and Watkins — and Asensio is unfortunately on his way to Fenerbahce.

Although the problem might be lessened if Emery can trust Onana and Kamara to build from deep and Tielemans pushes back upfield, the recruitment team should do everything possible to bring another creative attacker to the clubhouse. Failing that, Rogers will need to step up again, or fans will spend the year watching any sturdy mid-to-deep block shut them out. It could be a tense campaign.

A lineup which looks exactly like last season’s is only usually a good thing if you won the league, but we’d expect a few spots to turn over in this eleven before the window closes. At the time of writing, Watkins, Cash, Bailey, and even Martinez have all been touted to leave Villa Park this summer, and links to Openda and Samu Omorodion suggest that the club would at least make an effort to fill the striker slot, even if it meant compromises elsewhere. Given the freedom, we’d expect them to go big at right-back and for a flexible forward too.

Rogers, Konsa, and the two deep midfielders make for a strong spine, and Villa will hope that Kamara’s new deal brings him good health. The Frenchman has averaged just nineteen 90s a season in his three years in claret and blue, but has the best defensive instincts in the squad, and his partnership with Onana could blossom into one of the steeliest in the league provided others can help out with ball progression.

Still, with so little done and so much uncertainty, it’s difficult to foresee an improved domestic showing from Villa. The Europa League currently looks a better path to glory.

Prediction: 7th