Breaking down the 9 biggest deadline day transfers

Quick editor’s note up top from Kim before we get started: You might notice that a) we figured out how to show you the author in emails, and b) I’m not the author of this post. Neel Shelat and Mohamed Mohamed, who have done excellent work on guest posts and the Premier League previews for us previously, will be regular writers for us this season. We’re thrilled to have them here. I’ll still be the most frequent writer, and you’ll still hear from Ted every week. —KM

The transfer window has closed, long live the transfer window! We’ll certainly have a lot more to say about it in the very near future, but first, we gotta get up to speed with all that went down on deadline day – and it was a lot! I can’t remember the last time there were so many major moves up in the air as the countdown clock started to tick down, but in the end, most of them have gone through. Here are nine of the biggest:

Alexander Isak — Newcastle United to Liverpool, £125m

This British record transfer has been in the offing all summer, though an anticlimactic ending looked possible just a few weeks ago as the deal seemed to reach a bit of stalemate. Newcastle reportedly rejected a £110m bid from Liverpool as they had no intention of letting him go. Alexander Isak, meanwhile, refused to train or play for the Magpies as he threw the kitchen sink in a bid to force the move, and he just about had his way at the end of it all.

No one needs me to say how good a player Isak is, so let me talk about this from the two clubs’ point of view. I had said on the podcast a few weeks ago that I thought Newcastle ought to have started negotiating the moment he showed signs of wanting to leave (when Hugo Ekitike was still on the market), and in the end they are paying the price for not doing so. While they have managed to bring in a couple of replacements late on, they have arguably overpaid for both, thus using up all the money without necessarily making the team better.

Liverpool, on the other hand, have brought in an embarrassment of attacking riches this summer, so the big question for them is how to put it all together. There already are questions about the balance of their side pre-Isak, but he likely won’t help in that respect (and neither will the failed Marc Guéhi deal). His arrival does give them even more options in terms of the configuration of their attack, which we could easily write a full piece about. And soon we will.

Yoane Wissa — Brentford to Newcastle United, £55m

Isak was not the only player who had to agitate for a transfer this summer. Newcastle’s deadline day signing Yoane Wissa followed a similar playbook, going as far as unfollowing his former employers on Instagram and penning an essay on the situation. That’s surely as close to a like-for-like Isak replacement as you can get.

But in all seriousness, Wissa is in fact not a like-for-like Isak replacement. He only scored four fewer goals than the Swedish international’s 23 in the Premier League last season, but only got to half of his xA tally and averaged one fewer shot-creating action per 90.

In simple words, Wissa is a good off-ball runner who will consistently get on the end of stuff in the box, so he should suit Newcastle’s transition-ball quite well. However, he won’t be able to create goals out of nothing like Isak and generally won’t help Newcastle’s creation issues against low blocks. Over to you, Big Nick (more on him coming from Moe later this week).

Gianluigi Donnarumma — Paris Saint-Germain to Manchester City, £26m

This is my first installment as a regular contributor to the newsletter, so I probably should take it easy and not say too much crazy stuff. However, I am extremely tempted to continue my pre-season theme of putting Pep on Fraud Watch after Manchester City’s decision to replace Ederson with Gianluigi Dommarumma.

As you can see, one of these goalkeepers plays with the ball at his feet, and the other does not. City had already signed one plus shot-stopper who is a bit iffy in the build-up earlier this summer, and he only needed a couple of matches to make a costly error. Dumping another £26m on this profile of goalkeeper does not make sense to me.

Simply put: I do not believe any level of shot-stopping will offer enough added value to make up for Donnarumma’s poor ball-playing (which will lead to losses of possession and eventually more shots coming his way) and inability to properly command his box (which will also lead to more shots). But hey, at least his saves per 90 numbers will look good?

Senne Lammens — Royal Antwerp to Manchester United, £18m

Donnarumma could have gone to the red side of Manchester, as could Emiliano Martínez. In the end, though, they ended up signing 23-year-old Senne Lammens from Royal Antwerp for about £20m.

The Club Brugge academy graduate joins on the back of just one full senior season as a regular, but his numbers look very impressive. Even if you take away the four penalties he saved, he was +7.56 over his PSxG last season. His cross-claiming numbers are quite good too, and he knows what to do with the ball at his feet. 

I wonder what happened the last time a goalkeeper with an excellent track record moved to Manchester United…

Randal Kolo Muani — Paris Saint-Germain to Tottenham Hotspur, loan

The transfer window couldn’t end until Randal Kolo Muani got linked to Tottenham, except this time, he’s actually signed for them! A straight loan for a striker is a sensible move for Spurs, who needed another body due to Dominic Solanke’s ankle injury. But here’s Kolo Muani’s radar from his loan to Juventus earlier this year:

Squints At least he didn’t take bad shots, huh?

In all fairness, the Frenchman is at least a bit better than what that radar shows because his output was limited by playing in a generally bad Juventus attack. He’ll make good runs towards goal both with and without the ball, and he’ll certainly be a threat in transition. Nathan A. Clark of the Extra Inch Podcast interestingly suggested that he might even be able to do a job in the Brennan Johnson left wing role, so he could well do enough to make his loan worth it.

Toluwalase Arokodare — Genk to Wolves, £24m

As far as strikers who get on the end of stuff in the box go, few out there are better than Tolu Arokodare. Why weren’t all the big teams flocking to sign him, then? Because he underperformed his xG by a significant margin last season.

His finishing numbers were red in 2023/24 as well, and the tape makes it clear that those stats are not misleading. The Nigerian forward is great with his off-ball movement and positioning, uses his 6′ 6″ frame well to win aerial duels and outmuscle defenders, and averaged 4.3 shots per 90 last season. But then he did this when it came to heading the ball into the goal:

If you want something more in-depth about Tolu, I cannot recommend this piece by the excellent Ashwin Raman enough. As frustrating as his finishing can be, I really like him as a player. As for the £24m fee, I like this deal for Wolves. I know they’re in relegation danger, but I might even have been tempted to take the money Newcastle were putting on the table for Jørgen Strand Larsen if I knew he was coming in. On the flip side, the Norwegian striker’s presence should take some pressure off Tolu and give him time to settle, before potentially taking over in the future.

Nicolas Jackson — Chelsea to Bayern Munich, £16m loan fee, £54m conditional buy obligation

Speaking of strikers whose finishing can be frustrating, Nicolas Jackson finally did get to move to Bayern after all. Liam Delap’s injury jeopardized the transfer over the weekend, but Bayern’s agreement to the conditional obligation to buy has seemingly seen it through.

If they do get the total £70m for a permanent departure next summer, Chelsea should be well pleased with this deal from a financial point of view. However, I do not get why they would want to sell this player in the first place when they do not have any standout alternatives in the squad.

It’s not straightforward to make full sense of this from Bayern’s perspective either. They obviously needed someone as a backup to Harry Kane, but there surely were better options on the market than a £16m season-long loan fee (plus wages) and an even more expensive buy clause. Profile-wise, Jackson can offer a different option as a runner in-behind, but I have questions about his box presence against the kinds of low blocks that Bayern often face. Those remain standing if you view him as a long-term Kane replacement as well.

Harvey Elliott — Liverpool to Aston Villa, loan with £35m buy obligation

We always knew Aston Villa were going to have a tough summer given their complicated PSR equation. But, they did not make life easier for themselves by acting like an undergraduate student and leaving it all to be done on deadline day. Their other signings have been questionable, to say the least, but the £35m loan-to-buy deal for Harvey Elliott looks quite good.

The young Englishman has long been a highly-rated talent at Liverpool, but struggled to become a regular starter for the Reds despite enjoying some successful spells. He didn’t play much last season, so his 2023/24 numbers are more representative of his true quality.

Elliott was a winger in his younger days and will likely start out on the right in Unai Emery’s 4-2-3-1, though he will look to drift infield and get on the ball in more central areas. That’s exactly the kind of profile they have been looking for in their attacking signings this summer, so he should fit in quite easily. He should also add some much-needed creativity and intensity in an Aston Villa attack that has been extremely stale so far this season.

Piero Hincapié — Bayer Leverkusen to Arsenal, £5m loan fee, £45m conditional buy obligation

After narrowly losing out to Liverpool in a tense affair at Anfield this weekend, Arsenal have gone and done the sensible thing on deadline day. That’s right, they’ve signed another left back/centre back hybrid.

I first watched Piero Hincapié when he made his international debut at the 2021 Copa América. His on-ball quality was evident right from then, so the main question was whether he’d develop enough physically to make it to the very top. He’s been signed by a Mikel Arteta team now, so that definitely is not a question any longer.

These radars make Hincapié look like Riccardo Calafiori with better passing quality, and that’s pretty much what he is. Arsenal didn’t neccessarily need that, but they didn’t really need anything else either as the squad is stacked. He could even be an important presence if Calafiori’s injury issues flare up again, and the Gunners have the option to keep him for £45m next summer.

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