Can Dortmund win Der Klassiker?

We’ll already know whether or not this season can still feature a real Bundesliga title race this Saturday. Bayern Munich, who have 6 wins from 6 and an outrageous +22 goal differential, will be playing host to 2nd placed Borussia Dortmund. A Bayern win would open the gap at the top to 7 points.

While Dortmund does not appear to be in Bayern’s class this season, they’re 2nd in both xG differential and real goal differential heading into this matchup. If someone’s going to challenge the Bavarians, it’s most likely to be them.

Manager Niko Kovač has installed a back 3 system since taking over from Nuri Şahin last season. He’s played a bit of 3-5-2 with a single midfield pivot, but did not like how that system looked in a 3-3 draw with St. Pauli to start the season. Since then, he’s shifted to a 3-4-3 shape, though one that’s a bit different from what you might think of when you hear that formation notation.

Rather than have a pair of wingfielders who shift inside to make a box midfield and create space for wingbacks to overlap, the wide players in Kovač’s 3-4-3 are more like wide strikers. Max Beier and Karim Adeyemi (and occasionally Julian Brandt) stay high and look for opportunities to run in behind, while center forward Serhou Guirassy drops into midfield and makes late runs to the top of the box.

Wingbacks Daniel Svensson and Yan Couto are often doing a lot of cardio, rather than participating in ball progression. The outside center backs, usually Remy Bensebaini and Waldemar Anton, are tasked with moving the ball forward. Following some early misadventures from Jobe Bellingham, he’s been benched for more positionally disciplined midfielders, much to the dismay of his father.

With Guirassy dropping so deep to combine in midfield and his two forward mates often running beyond him, you might be surprised to see a radar that looks like that of a pure goal poacher. Guirassy isn’t really a false 9, playmaking forward type at all. Instead, he’s incredible at getting forward quickly after making a defensive or hold-up contribution in the middle of the park and getting into position to score despite that starting position.

Adeyemi has thrived under Kovač as well. A couple years ago, his progress appeared to have stalled out, and Dortmund were rumoured to be pursuing a sale in the summer 2024 transfer window. He stayed and was often benched for Jamie Gittens early in the season, but enjoyed a resurgence late in the year following Kovač’s arrival. Now he’s first choice, and he’s become one of the world’s most productive attackers.

Ever since the shape change following the draw with St. Pauli, Dortmund’s defense has been excellent. They’re the best non-Bayern Munich defense in the league, having allowed just 1 goal in their last 5 games, and only 0.85 xG against per 90 in total.

Their attack is… fine? Kovač has pretty clearly prioritized structure over attacking prowess so far this season, to good results. Their press — particularly from Adeyemi and Beier — has been excellent at creating high xG shots. Their attack is otherwise pretty average. The good news for them is that they’re certainly not going to be facing a lot of settled lower block defense from Bayern Munich, though the bad news is obviously that they will be playing against Bayern Munich.

Bayern has not yet faced a team like Dortmund this season — a 3-4-3 side that’s good at pressing, but puts keeping a solid shape first, and has athletic forwards that can take advantage of space in behind. They’re the exact type of side that should, theoretically, give Bayern quite a few problems.

But there are a couple of issues that I don’t see Dortmund overcoming. The first and most obvious one is talent gap, which I can’t imagine you need me to tell you about. Harry Kane and Michael Olise are two of the top performing players on earth so far this season. Luis Diaz has been an excellent complimentary addition. Joshua Kimmich still runs the show in midfield like no other. Tactics can only do so much to overcome one team having better players than the other.

The second might be less obvious, though you’ll have picked up on it if you looked at the radars in any detail. Dortmund is not good at set pieces right now, on either side of the ball. I can only hypothesize that this is due to lack of prioritization from the coaching staff, because this is not a team lacking in set piece talent. They start 3 center backs and their forwards are all reasonably good in the air. They might not have an elite dead ball striker, but that doesn’t explain the defensive set piece issues.

Getting back to being the clear 2nd best team in Germany would be an excellent step forward for Dortmund after a couple of extremely tumultuous years, but I don’t think they’re any more than that. They have the tools to pull an upset this weekend, though, and I’ll be rooting for them to do so. Not out of any dislike for Bayern, just out of a desire to see the Bundesliga have a title race that’s not settled before Christmas.

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