Can they keep getting away with it?

There are currently 4 teams in the top 11 places of the Premier League table with a negative Expected Goals differential. All of them are some variety of fraudulent, but there are levels of fraudulence to consider here. Let’s rank them, in order from most to least fraudulent.

Level 1 — Can probably keep getting away with it: Everton

Being in 10th place with a -0.15 xGD per 90 is not particularly egregious. Everton once made the Champions League with a negative GD, after all. There’s history here.

I also think that Everton have played pretty good football all-around this season and have been held back by two really stupid things that are unlikely to continue, in each 6-yard box. They’ve conceded 3 absolutely point-blank headers from set pieces, while completely whiffing a ton of their own. Thierno Barry and Beto are the two worst headed finishers in the league despite being 6’5” and prolific in the air.

I feel really good about the Toffees fixing both of these problems and solidifying a finish of about 10th, on about an even GD. Finally, pure mid.

Level 2 — Improvement keeping pace with regression: Aston Villa

Villa shares Everton’s -0.15 xGD, but they’re 7 places higher in the table, sitting in a pretty astonishing 3rd place despite never really looking that impressive. I do not think they are a top 4 team and will be playing in Champions League next season. But a lot of their negative xGD is coming from earlier in the season, when they were horrendous through their first 5 games.

In 3 of their last 4 matches, Villa have recorded a positive xGD. If they can psychologically weather the storm that is 4 games out of 5 against Arsenal, Manchester United, Chelsea, and then Arsenal again — and get a couple points out of that run too — I do think that Villa is a solid candidate to finish in the top 7 and secure a European place.

Morgan Rogers and Ollie Watkins have come to life after bad starts. This team doesn’t stink.

Level 3 — Grim reaper knocking on your manager’s door: Tottenham Hotspur

A miracle draw against Newcastle has delayed what I have come to regard as the inevitable. Tottenham Hotspur are bad, and I don’t think Thomas Frank is going to survive the season.

With an xGD of -0.35, Tottenham should be a lot closer to a relegation fight than the top half. They have fallen back to earth recently after an inexplicably hot start, but there is much more falling left to do if they continue playing the same way.

I think Spurs’ problems are much more about personnel than manager. Johan Lange and Fabio Paratici should have been shown the door on September 2. But if you don’t even get shots for several games in a row, the coach is getting fired, and can hardly have any complaints about that.

Level 4 — Completely fake, but it’s awesome: Sunderland

6th place with a -0.41 xGD, but if you’re a Sunderland supporter, who cares what some nerd with a computer thinks? You beat Chelsea. You drew Arsenal. You got a comeback point at Anfield. You’re going to stay up even if the regression monster chomps your legs off. Tell everyone who says your team isn’t actually any good to screw themselves.

It was a pretty wild and eventful midweek of league football. Pat and Neel broke down the wild Barcelona-Atlético Madrid and Manchester City-Fulham games, and also got into some thoughts on Sunderland and Leeds, who both look like very strong favorites to stay up in the Premier League.

Over on the Patreon-exclusive podcast, Pat and Ted discussed the biggest mistakes they made in their careers and what they learned from them.

If you’re interested in football gambling, the Variance Betting newsletter with all of Ted’s beds on the Premier League and Championship will be out a little later today. We were exactly even on the midweek football, but still a pretty incredible +24 units for the season.

The FPL Corner

The fine folks at Solio FPL sent over their top teams to target based on projected goals and clean sheet% over the next 5 gameweeks, and things are looking good for Brighton and Newcastle players.

If you’re a long-time newsletter follower, you already know what this means: It’s time to pick up my godson Yankuba Minteh! They were also kind enough to provide a few other suggestions for midfielders in the same price range if you are down on Minteh or Brighton for some reason. But Minteh notably plays for a country that did not qualify for the Africa Cup of Nations, so you don’t have to worry about losing him in January.

If you have a bit more money to throw around, you’ve probably been tempted to pick up Phil Foden. He’s a bit more expensive than the 4 players mentioned above at £8.2m, but he’s the most transferred in player this week among both the player base at large and in FPL Mate’s experts poll.

While I have enjoyed Foden’s evolution as a central midfielder, I think that most of the things he’s been excellent at are not showing up in stats that matter for FPL. He’s scored a couple of bangers recently, but he’s still on just 2.34 xG for the season, and 2.21 xG assisted.

Someone with his numbers might be great as a value pickup, but at £8.2m? Your money is better spent elsewhere. I don’t think Foden’s going to provide FPL value at that price point, especially as he evolves into a deeper role that gets him further away from goal than he played previously.

Games we’re watching

The best place to find TV and stream listings for your country is probably LiveSoccerTV.

Lille vs. Marseille — With no other really good Friday games, take the opportunity to see Ayyoub Bouaddi go up against some top competition.

Inter Miami vs. Vancouver Whitecaps — A bonus MLS recommendation this weekend, the final is on Saturday evening.

Aston Villa vs. Arsenal — High potential for a low-scoring slog here, but pretty comfortably the biggest match of the weekend in the Prem.

Real Betis vs. Barcelona — Alternatively, very high scoring potential in this one.

Stuttgart vs. Bayern Munich — Another one where you’re just very likely to see a lot of goals.

Napoli vs. Juventus — It feels like Serie A delivers a big time contender vs. contender match every weekend.

Stuff we’re reading

Matt Furniss at Opta Analyst has some fun facts on every team qualified for the World Cup ahead of Friday’s draw.

David Hytner at The Guardian wrote about the distraction and headache that is the political situation around the event.

Nancy Armour at USA Today argues that NWSL is holding itself back by rejecting a record-breaking contract proposal for arguably its biggest star, Trinity Rodman.

Kyle Boas at Tactics Journal broke down Bayern Munich’s unique goal against Arsenal a couple weeks ago and pointed out a pattern of play that other teams might be able to copy in the future.

Jake Entwistle at Scouted dove into some young stat leaders around the world of football, with some focus on Aleksandar Pavlovic and Konstantinos Karetsas.

Seb Stafford-Bloor at The Athletic details the long-standing rivalry between Thomas Müller and Lionel Messi, which gets renewed this weekend in the MLS Cup Final.

Ed Malyon and Matt Hughes at FootBiz report on the continuing disaster that was John Textor’s ownership of Lyon.

Ali Maxwell at Not The Top 20 asks why League Two has such a high average age.

If you enjoyed this newsletter, we’d appreciate it if you would forward it to a friend. If you’re that friend, welcome! You can subscribe to The Transfer Flow here. We also have a podcast where we go in depth on transfer news and rumours every week. We’re on YouTube here, and you can subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify by searching for “The Transfer Flow Podcast.” If you’re interested in football betting, check out this post on why we started Variance Betting.