Can Wrexham pull off an all-time great FA Cupset?

I’ve never watched “Welcome To Wrexham,” so please let me know if it’s good and actually worth my time. Whether or not that’s the case, the Welsh club has put its Hollywood money to good use in building a capable squad that’s currently sitting 6th in the Championship. They host Chelsea in the FA Cup this weekend, and they play a style that’s conducive to frustrating bigger sides.

The Reds are probably a bit fortunate to be where they are in the promotion race given their roughly league average performance on both ends of the pitch. Both their attacking and defensive numbers look about as Standard Championship Club as it gets. Though that’s not an insult at all for a newly promoted club, even a rich one.

Wrexham are sporting a -0.13 xG differential per 90 this season, well off the likes of Southampton, Birmingham City and Sheffield United behind them. But that’s weighed down heavily by some poor performances early in the campaign; Wrexham have been one of the best teams in the division since the new year. Their xG differential is 0.35 p90 in 2026, and they recently turned in an extremely impressive performance against third-placed Ipswich.

This positive run hasn’t come as the result of any significant style change, mostly just from improvements in execution, especially defensively. They’ve dabbled with some 3-5-2 setups, but they’ve played with a narrow 3-4-3 shape for most of the season, and exclusively during this recent excellent run.

Wrexham don’t press high, and they’re not terribly concerned with teams crossing into their three central defenders, who usually have a significant advantage in the air over opposing strikers. They sit fairly deep and, funnel teams into the center, then win the ball effectively when it gets into dangerous areas just outside the box.

Being so used to this style of play should, theoretically, make Wrexham a tough matchup for bigger sides in the cup. They don’t have to adjust their style of play to face Chelsea. They’re already using the tactics you’d expect a Championship side to use against a top Premier League side on a weekly basis.

Looking forward, Wrexham look set up well to continue to contend for promotion and deep FA Cup runs in the coming years, even if it doesn’t quite happen for them this season. Most of their team is made up of prime-age players, while a lot of top Championship sides are often driven forward by top youngsters who are likely to get poached, fading veterans, and loanees who won’t return. They might not have the core of a team that can stay up in the Premier League, but the Reds should be competitive again next season with minimal turnover.

If there’s one exception to that, it’s likely to be left-footed center back Callum Doyle. The 22-year-old arrived from Manchester City this summer for £7.5m after spending last season on loan at Norwich, where he was very good. A young, ball-playing lefty CB with decent size and defensive stats might have some vultures circling him in the offseason if Wrexham aren’t promoted.

And finally, a very funny shot chart that suggests Wrexham have been a bit lucky this year, even if they’re mostly deserving of their position. A couple of these have been worldies, but Ollie Rathbone is running the most hot that anyone’s ever been running. 6 goals from 14 shots and 1.23 xG is astonishing.

Obviously the talent gap from Wrexham to Chelsea is such that the underdogs could have the perfect gameplan, make no mistakes, and still get dumpstered. Sometimes Cole Palmer just smokes one from 30 yards. But I’m not going to be shocked at all if this game gets deep into the 2nd half at 0-0 and Chelsea start to look frustrated. Wrexham are a genuinely great defensive team at the moment.

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