Checking in on how the Premier League's biggest transfers are doing

The big topic of Premier League discourse at the moment is Florian Wirtz’s struggle to settle in at Liverpool. The £100m man has yet to record a goal or an assist, and Arne Slot has tinkered with his lineup over the last couple of games to figure out how to get the best out of the German attacker.

I’m not too worried about Wirtz, but not for any reason that has to do with him specifically. Mostly, it’s because none of the big Premier League signings are really kicking off yet. They’re all still settling in, and it’s too early to make judgments about any of them. But to make this point, we might as well take a look at a bunch of them.

Maybe the conclusion you’ll draw is that they’re simply all crap players, but I doubt it.

Florian Wirtz, Liverpool

The goals and assists aren’t there for Wirtz, and he’s not just getting unlucky. His shot and key pass volume is bad too. This is currently a team-wide problem; Wirtz’s xG + xA per 90 is currently higher than Mohamed Salah’s.

If we’re going to actually worry about something, it’s the lack of dribbling value he’s currently providing. In the Bundesliga, Wirtz was exceptional at carrying the ball from deep or the touchline into very dangerous central areas. He’s not currently doing that at all.

Wirtz has mostly started centrally and high up the pitch for Liverpool. The secret to unlocking his potential might be using him in a slightly deeper or wider role, letting him pick up the ball under less pressure, then create chaos by running at defenses.

Viktor Gyökeres, Arsenal

You might think this radar doesn’t look very nice, but I think it’s par for the course on a striker moving from the Portuguese Liga to the Premier League. Gyökeres got to bully some poor defenses last season, and even the biggest believers knew his numbers would take a dip, at least early in the season.

Like Wirtz, Gyökeres is providing almost no dribbling value now that he’s playing in a league with less space and more physically talented defenders. This is also a product of his role at Arsenal, where the attack is a bit less of a one-man show and he’s mostly expected to occupy the center backs to create space for others.

If Gyökeres finishes the season with 0.35-0.4 xG per 90 and 12ish goals, that’ll be a normal and fine debut season. Arsenal went for Gyökeres over the other striker options at a similar price point because he was the safest pick, and that’s what they’re getting.

João Pedro, Chelsea

The Pedro hype machine was out of control during the preseason, with him scoring 5 goals from his first 5 games in the Club World Cup and friendlies. Between that run and Liam Delap’s injury, he’s cemented himself as the starting center forward.

And in that role, he’s producing… the same as he did at Brighton.

Call me old fashioned, but I’d prefer if my starting striker was good at getting into close-range shooting positions and shooting the ball. João Pedro is an excellent presser, dribbler, and receiver in tight spaces, but he’s not a starting center forward for a team with Champions League ambitions. I’d rather have Nicolas Jackson here.

Tijjani Reinders, Manchester City

Long-time readers will know that I was not a fan of Reinders’ transfer to Manchester City due to his average ball progression work and poor out of possession play. He’s a dream for fans who consume football through YouTube highlights, as he’s good for at least one sensational one per game, but that is generally not what central midfielders are for.

Anyway, he’s certainly racking up the xG assisted.

Reijnders will continue to farm highlights and stats against teams in the bottom half of the Premier League table. When it comes to Champions League knockouts and big matches against the teams at the top of the Premier League, I don’t think you can put him in the lineup. We’ll have to wait a few months to see if I’m wrong.

Nick Woltemade, Newcastle

Given the recent headed goals he’s scored, you might have thought that this would be the big summer transfer that already looks like a roaring success. Think again! Woltemade is contributing very little besides those headers and some nice pressing work rate.

Woltemade was excellent at creating for his teammates at Stuttgart, and we haven’t seen any of that yet from him in a Newcastle shirt. He’s playing a different role, operating as a more traditional center forward instead of coming off the left, which is likely contributing to that.

Bryan Mbeumo, Manchester United

United signed three attackers for about the same amount of money. Since we’re often very mean to them on this newsletter, I thought I’d be nice and pick out the one that’s been closest to a success early in his United career. Bryan Mbeumo is playing really well!

Unfortunately, he is not yet good at the thing he was bought for, kicking the ball in the net. Much was made of Mbeumo scoring well above his xG last season, sparking a quality finisher vs. luck debate. Early in the season, he’s got 1 goal from 2.07 xG and has missed a couple of huge chances. Unless your name is Messi or Ronaldo, I promise the regression monster will come for you.

He’s going to start scoring if he keeps producing shots at this level, though. United will be really happy with their purchase if this is what his numbers look like at the end of the season.

Mohamed Kudus, Tottenham Hotspur

I disliked the Kudus signing for Spurs due to his poor playmaking contributions at West Ham. Kudus Believers cited West Ham “signing a striker with a bum hamstring” and “being shit” as the main reasons he had no xG assisted, hypothesizing this would improve on Tottenham.

He’s got 3 assists already this season, eat it Kim! Except they’ve come from 0.4 xG assisted. He yeeted 2 crosses into the box against Burnley, and his assist to Mathys Tel required a lot of work after the pass and a deflection to go in. He’s actually producing less on Spurs, though his passing from deeper areas has been pretty nice.

Kudus is a frustrating watch. He often picks the safest backwards pass or tries tricks when he just needs to move the ball into the box. Those passes and tricks are high enough quality to convince you he’d be productive if he ever did them in the correct direction. Maybe it’ll click in his head someday.

Perhaps you spotted a pattern with these players. None of them are putting up big numbers yet. Everyone’s got something not going quite right, either with their underlying numbers or the end product. Florian Wirtz might be the most alarming one given his price tag, but he’s far from unique.

If your favorite team’s big signing isn’t playing well, you should chill out and re-evaluate in January.

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