Chelsea and Newcastle are remarkably evenly matched

The Premier League scheduling computers have managed to maximize the drama, giving us a battle for Champions League places inside the final 3 weeks of the season. Chelsea and Newcastle could both still qualify no matter what happens here… or they could both miss out. But if there’s a decisive result on Sunday, the winner will feel excellent about their chances of securing a spot in the top 5.

Let’s stare at some trendlines. Newcastle’s attack has been fairly consistent over the course of the season, but their defense is steadily improving.

Chelsea have become a more conservative team that controls games, but doesn’t create as many chances as the season has gone on. Last week was promising through, as they generated 3 xG (including a penalty), while also forcing an own goal against Liverpool.

A look at the attacking and defensive radars shows a pair of teams that’s pretty similar in quality. Chelsea have definitely been the slightly stronger attacking side over the course of the season, though Newcastle’s xG per shot is marginally better.

They’re pretty much dead even for xG conceded, but achieving their above-average-but-not-exceptional defenses in slightly different ways. Newcastle’s doing worse in xG per shot and clear shots conceded, but they’re conceding fewer total shots.

But you probably could have figured most of this out from the basic stats without all these fancy ones. Newcastle and Chelsea are tied not just on 63 points, but on a +22 goal differential as well. All of this is to say: This match, and race for top 5, is as close as you’re ever going to see. I don’t have a prediction for you. Just enjoy it.

Over on the gambling column, we have entered the part of the Premier League season where lots of teams having nothing to play for makes a lot of the games pretty risky propositions. Ted still thinks there’s value to be found on Ipswich-Brentford and Bournemouth-Villa, though, and explains why.

We’ll also be getting into MLS during the Premier League offseason using the same methodology that’s working so well in Europe at the moment, so you can subscribe to Variance Betting if you’re interested in that.

Games we’re watching

Barcelona vs. Real Madrid — Fresh off CL disappointment, Barca have to regroup and win themselves a La Liga title. They’re 4 points up on Madrid, who have won four 1-goal games in a row.

Liverpool vs. Arsenal — Obviously we’re watching Chelsea-Newcastle, but we’ll give another Prem game a shoutout too. These teams seem mildly checked out at the moment, but they’re both Proper Big Clubs so I guess it deserves a mention.

Lazio vs. Juventus — Another head-to-head in Italy’s crazy race for Champions League places. Juve drew against another contender, Bologna, last week. Lazio are coming off a win over Empoli.

Bayer Leverkusen vs. Borussia Dortmund — With nothing to play for and their manager confirmed to be exiting, I have no idea if Leverkusen are going to be their best against a Dortmund team that’s in a must-win situation.

Monaco vs. Lyon — It’s not impossible that European qualification for Lyon is the difference between being able to keep their club afloat or going bankrupt. They’re 4 points behind Monaco.

Stuff we’re reading

Alex Kirkland and Sam Marsden at ESPN take a look at the best and worst kits in the history of El Clásico.

Ahmed Walid and Mark Carey at The Athletic advance the narrative of this newsletter by talking about the increase in popularity of long throws.

Richard Foster at The Guardian traveled to Argentina to get to know the champions Velez Sarsfield.

Ali Tweedale at Opta Analyst breaks down the top 5 race in the Premier League.

Jake Entwistle at Scouted runs the most transfer-linked strikers through their profiles, and their event data provider sure does love Viktor Gyökeres.

Selim Ben Hmida at Total Football Analysis profiles Matías Soulé, who’s improved as the season has gone on after a transfer to Roma last summer.

—KM

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