Are Chelsea the weirdest team in the Premier League?

That’s a tough competition to win, especially with Nottingham Forest in the league, but they might be.

However, weird sounds pejorative, and that’s not what I am going for here. When it comes to Chelsea and transfer strategy, they are certainly unique, and pursuing a type and volume of activity different from every other Premier League team.

Is that a good thing? 🤷

Remember last summer when everyone assured the world Chelsea were playing 3-D chess with the transfer market, but then months later it turns out no one was happy with their business, the owners were fighting and talking about buying each other out, and Chelsea were on the edge of the Champions League for most of the season?

That actually happened.

But that team won UEFA’s baby trophy, as well as FIFA’s new Big Boy Club trophy this summer. Regarding transfers, things do look a little smarter and better planned right now.

Maybe those running things are prescient, perceiving how the world will move before it ever happens. Maybe their youth player movement will grow into an army of unstoppable skill, sundering all before them.

Maybe Chelsea are the new goliaths in football, and we just don’t know it yet.

How good were they last year?

This was good enough to sneak into fourth place in the Premier League, narrowly behind Manchester City, and just three ahead of Newcastle and Aston Villa, secured on the final day. Not exactly inspiring stuff, especially given the budget difference from those behind them, but it was good enough.

As noted above, Chelsea won the UEFA Conference League, and then navigated an extremely soft route to the final of the FIFA Club World Cup, where they beat PSG. The group and bracket they defeated to get to there was SO MUCH weaker than the teams on the other side, but full marks for defeating the best team in the world soundly to take home the trophy.

What does that mean for next season?

Well… see that steep slope downward in the second half of last season’s trendline? That’s the worry. Chelsea were rocking teams through the Christmas break last season and then the wheels came well and truly off the bus.

One could argue that the deterioration in performances were the result of a variety of injuries, both at forward and at centre back. But one could also argue that even after Chelsea got healthy, the trending didn’t recover. Expected goal performances like the ones in the last ten matches would typically see Chelsea finish closer to midtable next season than Champions League.

That’s a worry… but it’s not a prediction.

Here’s another oddity:

This is player expected goal scoring from last season (combined goals and assists in the xG realm). Notice anything odd? Like… three of the top four players on the list (and four of the top seven) either have already been moved on or are clearly for sale?

That’s strange, right, especially for players in and around peak age?

Normally big teams keep their good players and sign new players.

Chelsea are selling good players… and then also buying new players.

Is that good? Well… it is a thing that is happening.

One year on and I’m not sure we entirely know? Chelsea played basically to their talent in terms of points. Tactically, they tried very hard to control things with varying degrees of success. And toward the end of the season, the attack had bottomed out seemingly to help keep the defensive side of things sound, which worked for the run-in, but is not great as a long-term strategy.

One continuing concern will be goalkeeper Robert Sanchez, and playing out from the back. Sanchez was bad at this last season, and it caused the Blues’ buildup to look like a contortionist against teams that pressed. Chelsea were widely rumoured to be in for a new GK right at the start of the summer, but then decided not to buy Milan’s Maignan, and let Djordje Petrovic move on to Bournemouth for around £25m.

So Sanchez it presumably is, again? 😬

That said, maybe this summer’s retooling project gives Maresca exactly the weapons he needed to shift Chelsea’s attack up while keeping the defensive output rock solid.

While I am here, why does Enzo Maresca have a five-year contract in this day and age?

Relatedly: why does Chelsea do anything when it comes to contracts?

Look, how much time do you have? (And how many times am I going to have to update this in the month before the window closes?)

Players out: FW Noni Madueke, AM Joao Felix, CM Kieran Dewsbury-Hall

Players in: FW Joao Pedro, LW Jamie Gittens, LB Jorrel Hato, ST Liam Delap, RW Estevao, CM Dario Essugo

So Chelsea’s ins and outs are particularly hard to keep up with due to Strasbourg looming over and around a lot of them. Since this is the Premier League preview, we’ll stick to the guys who played for the team last year and who are in line for first team football this season. We’ll save the Strasbourg guys and other nonsense for transfer grades in September.

Most of the buys are very young. Like, they are legal, but would be in university if they weren’t professional footballers who will probably never bother to attend university young.

Is that a good thing? Maybe? It’s a long-term strategy that Chelsea’s braintrust hope pays off over the course of many years, but it’s not like no one else knew about it before Chelsea started spending nine figures executing.

It it a good idea?

It’s not my money.

Estevao was a delayed one. He should be good, but when he will be good enough for the PL is a big unknown. Gittens… similar but a little further along the curve? He fills a need, has solid meep, but it could be a bumpy year 1 in the Prem. The price was too damned high for the actual Bundesliga production.

Delap was a fine buy for a backup, but there’s no evidence he’ll be a shot volume monster yet. Even if he doesn’t work out, they’ll sell him on for neutral at the very worst. Financially a resounding yes, footballistically an uncertain shrug.

That leads us to one transfer I love (even if the price is a bit scary vs league), and another transfer I am absolutely scratching my head about, especially if Jackson leaves.

I love the Hato signing. The fee is a lot for a Dutch defender, but if you had to pick one most likely to work out, it’s probably him. He’s already a good defender, he’ll have the physical tools to deal with PL attackers soon, and he’s legit talented in the football space.

Then there’s Joao Pedro…

I winced at first, but the fee has backed into not looking so bad given a bunch of the mids that have transferred later in the summer for £50-60m.

He’s versatile, he’s good with the ball at his feet, and he will work his socks off pressing from the front. Those are really good things, provided you are looking for a Bobby Firmino-type of attacker, and have shot volume wide forwards to slot around him…

Which Chelsea do not.

One of the issues Manchester United have had in recent seasons is their CFs don’t shoot enough, and the wide forwards they have shoot quite a bit, but not always from the best locations. That’s not a recipe you actively want to replicate, but Chelsea seemingly are doing so if they end up letting Jackson leave. Maybe Palmer and Caicedo solve the issue, but that’s not something I’m excited about risking?

Are there more transfers to come? Well, up until this week Xavi Simons was definitely happening (via the media), but that appears to have hit a snag. And Garnacho’s people are suggesting Chelsea definitely still want him, presumably after they get Jackson settled onto his outbound train.

Both of those players are good and could improve Chelsea nicely, should they come to fruition.

This lineup projection will change 5 times by September.

The squad is talented, but much like last season, I’m just not sure the transfers they are making do much to improve the team on the field this season.

So the question then becomes: Are Chelsea obviously better now than they were last season?

If they keep Nicolas Jackson, then yes. And if not… probably no?

Maybe a year of training, plus the positive trophy vibes from the summer means Maresca’s tactics are now clicking and Chelsea are easy picks for fourth and above. But maybe getting rid of three of your top four scorers combined with the end of season attacking swoon doesn’t create a positive upswing, and Chelsea will struggle to create enough goals to dominate across all these competitions.

Last season, I felt like a guy who watched Chelsea closely and then asked a lot of questions, none of which had clean answers.

Now I feel like I’m doing exactly the same thing, because none of the business this summer adds up to easily understood improvements on the pitch.

None of it is obviously bad like Joao Felix and Pedro Neto. Maybe in two or three years time, all of these players will develop and become world beaters, but for now are they actually going to be better than Liverpool, City, or Arsenal? My money says no, and potentially far from it.

But the deals… they did flow.

Prediction: 4th

—TK