Chelsea star has properly made The Leap

Last week we kinda cooked on the upset pick. Ted and I came at the Bournemouth vs. Man City game from different perspectives and came away with the same correct conclusion, that the Cherries had a great shot at a result.

Not to target City or anything, but I think it might happen again? Though I’m less confident this week due to some injuries for Brighton.

City are still missing a ton of players through injury and they’re coming off a poor performance in Champions League. Brighton have some firepower, pulled off wins over Newcastle and Tottenham recently, and played a very strong 60 minutes vs. Liverpool before Mo Salah called game. I think the Seagulls have actually underperformed their talent level a bit recently and will improve as the season goes on.

Over on the premium betting newsletter, Ted explains why he’s laying money on Brighton +0.75. I didn’t want to focus on the same thing two weeks in a row over here, but I thought I’d point out that, once again, I think City is going to drop points. You can upgrade to premium here to see all the market-implied model odds and why Brighton covering anything better than +0.5 makes sense, not just picks.

Onto the Friday grab bag, starting with one of my favorite players to watch this season: Nicolas Jackson. He’ll have the spotlight on him in the Premier League’s biggest game of the week, Chelsea vs. Arsenal. —KM

Nicolas Jackson has made The Leap

This publication derided Chelsea for having a terrible transfer window, but they’re sitting in a top 4 position, ahead of this weekend’s opponents Arsenal. How can that be? Well, it’s because the young players they bought last year who were decent in their first seasons at the club have improved. João Félix and Pedro Neto haven’t even needed to make a positive contribution.

While Cole Palmer is getting all the headlines — and deservedly so — he was already good enough last year to make the England squad for the Euros. The biggest improvement has come from striker Nicolas Jackson.

Last season, Jackson was extremely inconsistent, turning in some great performances to go along with some stinkers, and missing quite a few easy chances. But in the aggregate, he was getting into good shooting positions, and he’s improved in that respect this season. He’s also utilizing his excellent work rate and fitness better, becoming a more effective presser instead of just a really active one.

Jackson’s shot selection and ability to create space for himself to run onto through balls has been exceptional this year. And wouldn’t you know it, he’s a plus finisher so far this year too! More goals than xG, take that “bad finisher” narrative.

Chelsea probably should have locked up one of the rumoured signings of Victor Osimhen or Samu Omorodion instead of dropping £100m on a couple of guys who don’t really do anything, but they’re getting away with it because Jackson has evolved into one of the best strikers in the world. Erling Haaland is still putting up numbers that clear everyone else, but Jackson has firmly established himself in the 2nd tier of Premier League strikers with Alexander Isak, Dominic Solanke, Yoane Wissa… wait, what?

He’s not what this piece is about at all, but I just had to show you this. Since he came back from injury, Wissa’s gotten the absolute nuttiest high xG chances and he’s on mega elite xG per 90 numbers from just 13 shots.

Sorry for the super unfocused writing, I’m usually pretty good about constructing a tight linear narrative here, but good lord.

Games we’re watching

Real Madrid vs. Osasuna — I think Real Madrid are just not going to be that good this year. Their right back, playmaking midfielder and Vini/Mbappe role overlap problems are just not getting solved quickly. But smashing Osasuna might at least keep everyone feeling hopeful.

Chelsea vs. Arsenal — It feels like we are dangerously close to Arteta hitting a fanbase turns on coach moment.

Stuttgart vs. Eintracht Frankfurt — Screw defense, all my homies hate defense. Really good chance at a 4-4 thriller here.

Inter Milan vs. Napoli — Every game is huge for the Serie A title race because it’s a legit 7-way race, but Napoli really need to bounce back after a bad performance last week. This is the hardest fixture of their season on paper.

Nice vs. Lille — PSG’s running away with Ligue 1, but these two teams are among the very tight group battling it out for European places, and they’re both trending a little better than Marseille and Monaco at the moment.

Stuff we’re reading

Jonny Weeks at The Guardian wrote about Coventry’s shock sacking of Mark Robins, the longest serving manager in the Football League. He’d taken over when the club was near bankruptcy and guided them to two promotions.

Bill Connelly at ESPN has a recap of Champions League at the midpoint of this phase, with a very interesting-looking and somewhat surprising best XI.

Grace Robertson at Grace On Football asks if Barcelona are properly back. I would say yes, but they’re only one insane transfer decision away from the abyss.

Aidan Smith at Tactically Speaking also wrote about Barca this week, going into why Hansi Flick plays such a high defensive line.

Simon Hughes at The Athletic warns against Arsenal giving Mikel Arteta too much power in the wake of director of football Edu Gaspar’s resignation.

Llew Davies and Jake Entwistle at Scouted watched the UEFA Youth League matches and cover some young talents who are impressing so far.

Emma Tobiasson at The Cutback has a recap of the U-17 women’s World Cup and its breakout stars.

Jason Anderson at Pro Soccer Wire has a preview of the NWSL playoffs.

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