We had a fairly rare occurrence in Munich this weekend, as Borussia Dortmund came away with a result from a meaningful Klassiker. They have only defeated Bayern Munich once in their last 18 meetings, and although they could not come away with all three points on this occasion either, a draw will feel like a good result given the flow of the game.

The visitors actually got off to a decent start, keeping the contest fairly even for the first half-hour or so. They even thought that they had the lead in the 34th minute from a turnover inside the six-yard box, but VAR found that Carney Chukwuemeka jumped directly into Jonas Urbig in his bid to avoid interfering with the ball as it went in. In typical fashion, Bayern went up the other end and opened the scoring with the very next sequence of play, seemingly setting course to go three points clear at the top of the standings.

Dortmund showed some fight for the remainder of the half, but did not come out well at all on the other side of the break. They gave up a good few chances, the most notable of which was Harry Kane’s missed penalty. For once, though, they capitalised on the momentum swing by equalising through Serhou Guirassy in the 60th minute. However, the scoreline barely stayed level for a few minutes before Dayot Upamecano restored the hosts’ advantage from a corner.

That could well have been that for the game, especially if Bayern converted any of the subsequent presentable chances they got. As it happened, though, they decided to try and see out a one-goal advantage for the last 10 or so minutes. They were doing a largely fine job of it until the 89th minute, when Fábio Silva squeezed home a shot during the second phase of a set-piece.

The xG race chart clearly suggests this wasn’t a particularly deserved point for Dortmund, but it keeps them level on points with their rivals at the top of the standings. Whether they can stay there for long, though, is a separate matter.

Bayern Munich might be sitting atop the Bundesliga standings right now, but they have gotten off to a subpar start in 2026/27 by their lofty standards. A return of 18 points after eight rounds of league fixtures is their worst since 2010/11, when Louis van Gaal led them to just 11 points and an eventual third place finish behind Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen.

A repeat of that is very unlikely. Opta Analyst’s predictions currently give Bayern an 85% chance of retaining the title, and even that might be underselling it. They are by far and away the best team in the division in terms of performance levels, and have been quite unfortunate to drop points on each of the three occasions that they have done so.

Besides Der Klassiker, the defending champions also drew 2-2 with Augsburg despite putting up close to 5 xG. The other match from which they took just one point was in Gelsenkirchen against Schalke, who held on to a goalless draw despite conceding 1.94 xG from 52 penalty box touches and 83% possession.
Quite simply, Bayern Munich have far too much quality for the Bundesliga. Among Europe’s big five leagues, only Paris Saint-Germain in Ligue 1 are bigger outliers than they are in the German top-flight in terms of team strength, as per Pitchrank’s power rankings. They have shown time and again that they can coast to victories against most teams in the division, and when they do turn it up – as they did against Leipzig a couple of weeks ago in a 6-1 victory – they can decimate opponents.

By themselves, Bayern’s domestic rivals are pretty helpless when it comes to dethroning the defending champions. So, the only way that a window of opportunity might open up for them is if Die Roten have rotten luck with injuries.

Each of the attacking trio behind Harry Kane had to be taken off due to different issues in the last match, with Ismael Saibari undergoing surgery after nastily twisting his ankle, while Serge Gnabry went down off the ball holding his thigh. Michael Olise also went off at the end, but Bayern will be desperately hoping that his is a minor niggle because their injury list already includes Luis Díaz and Jamal Musiala. At present, they are only left with two fully fit attackers in Harry Kane and 18-year-old Lennart Karl, while stand-in options like Alphonso Davies do not come without workload concerns of their own.

Of course, head coach Vincent Kompany has been absent for the last three games as well after being hospitalised due to a serious viral infection that led to him collapsing at the training centre. While he has been discharged, there naturally is no clear timeline for his return either.

Having also drawn two of their first three Champions League games, Bayern cannot afford to take their foot too far off the pedal in Europe. Fixture congestion could well become a greater challenge this term, especially during the run of seven games in three weeks on the other side of this month’s international break. They might just be able to manage it if a couple of forwards return before then, but any more injuries will leave them in real crisis.

Even if Bayern keep going at not much over two points per game on average, early indications suggest that Borussia Dortmund are unlikely to race away at the top of the table. Their xG difference is barely positive after taking a big hit in Der Klassiker, but it wasn’t second-best before the match either.

Niko Kovač’s side do have a solid defensive record with the fewest goals conceded (7) and five clean sheets, but that has come at the cost of a dismal attack. They are presently in the bottom half of the rankings for xG, big chances and even shots, and are being outscored by the likes of Augsburg, Werder Bremen and newly-promoted Elversberg.

Dortmund’s attack had shown some concerning signs last season as they were fourth on xG and sixth for big chances created even as they finished second with an average of over two goals per game. One of the main issues was their heavy reliance on crossing in Kovač’s 3-4-2-1 setup, since the squad lacked truly creative options for the inside forward positions behind the striker. The two wing-backs topped their xA charts, and Julian Ryerson provided as many as 15 assists from the right.

The summer transfer business offered optimism in terms of Dortmund developing their attack in a more balanced manner, as they signed a number of promising young ball-to-feet creators. However, Konstantinos Karetsas and Justin Lerma have been hampered by fitness issues so far, while Giannis Konstantelias is out for the season with an ACL injury.

As a result, Dortmund have been left with the worst of two worlds between a cross-heavy approach and a greater focus on central penetration. They still are among the top four in terms of crosses attempted, but are in the bottom five for success rate. Ryerson is their only representative in the league’s top forty creators, as the next-best players in the squad have barely managed a smidge over 1 xA so far.

Kovač’s side did switch to a back four fairly effectively against Bayern, but they don’t seem to have the balance at the base of the side to consistently succeed with such a formation. Their attacking ceiling in the 3-4-2-1 appears quite limited, but they will likely stick to it for its defensive solidity. Dortmund may hope to grind out as many narrow wins as possible, but knowing them, that is almost certain to result in a failed title challenge.

Bayern Munich’s slow start to the season opens the door for another team to have a run like Bayer Leverkusen or even Stuttgart did in 2023/24, but no side seems poised to even have a chance of capitalising.

Freiburg currently sit in third at a two-point deficit from the leaders, having lost to them on home turf in the previous round of league games. Julian Schuster’s side benefitted from a kind run of fixtures to climb high up the table in the initial weeks of the season. They are a solid unit, but definitely do not seem to have the attacking capacity to go the distance.

Fourth-placed RB Leipzig are the opposite in the sense that theirs is a free-scoring attack, but they aren’t good enough at protecting their own penalty box. Across all competitions, they have conceded three or more goals on four separate occasions already this term. While this isn’t the worst approach in the Bundesliga, it leaves them susceptible to dropping points far too often to have any shot at a title charge – especially with one of the youngest squads in the division.

The other potential contenders have been tripping each other up, as Bayer Leverkusen have suffered back-to-back defeats against fellow European qualifiers Hoffenheim and Stuttgart – both of whom currently sit in the bottom half of the standings.

All said and done, this very much looks like Bayern Munich’s title to lose yet again.

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