Der Klassiker is looking outrageously one-sided these days

Tomorrow, the top two sides in the Bundesliga face off in a match that should decide if the title race is completely over or keeps going for a few more weeks. Second-placed Borussia Dortmund, fresh off a midweek collapse that got them eliminated from Champions League, play host to league leaders Bayern Munich in Der Klassiker.

Dortmund are currently 8 points back, sporting a +27 goal differential to Bayern’s +64. But the gap between the teams is probably even more severe than that suggests. Bayern is so dominant that their stats make the second-leading scorers in the division look mid by comparison.

And they’re the best defensive team in the league as well.

Dortmund's +0.34 goal differential per 90 is nothing to sneeze at, but check out Bayern’s xG trendline. They’re just consistently more than 1 whole xG better than their opponents, though their defense has slipped a bit in recent weeks. Despite the average performances since the new year, the Bavarians still have a +1.34 xG differential per 90. For comparison, Arsenal are on +0.94, and Barcelona on +1.08.

There’s obviously no one player responsible for this kind of dominance, but if we're going to single out one person for their exceptional individual performances, it has to be Michael Olise. He’s the Bundesliga's per 90 leader in shots + key passes, xG + xA, and OBV among players with more than 1200 minutes played.

The difference in quality between Bayern and the rest of the Bundesliga is staggering. Perhaps Dortmund can pull off something dramatic this weekend, but I have a hard time believing it actually affects the title race at all.

The Transfer Flow conference is in London on May 22, and we’re excited to announce our first conference speaker for our Industry Professional Session line-up.

Hendrik Almstadt is in his eighth season at AC Milan having joined the club in July 2018 where he built up the analytics function from scratch — supporting the club in various roles, including during their Scudetto-winning season in 21/22.

From Player Relations Director for the DP World Tour, to Sporting Director at Aston Villa and Commercial and Football Operations roles at Arsenal, we're excited to have Hendrik as a speaker at our inaugural conference.

10% discount on all tickets are available for a few more weeks, and you can book now right here. The early session will include talks from a bunch more industry professionals that we’ll announce in the coming weeks, and the evening session will be a live podcast with Ted and Patrick.

Over on the podcast, the boys broke down the UEFA Champions League knockout playoffs, where Bodø/Glimt were the big story, booting Inter Milan from the competition.

On the Patreon episode, Patrick and Neel rank their top 10 strikers in world football. There's a Patreon-exclusive episode every week that has a deeper dive into one topic, plus some behind the scenes banter from the recordings of the two free podcast episodes.

Over on Variance Betting, Ted is currently +14u for the season. He's got 5 Premier League and 4 Championship bets on this weekend, including some faith that West Ham’s recent good form is for real. If you enjoy football betting and you’d like to learn how to get smarter about it, you can subscribe to Variance Betting here.

The FPL Corner

A lot of FPL experts are selling out of Enzo Fernandez this week and pivoting to a different midfielder. Dango Ouattara is a popular choice, which I don't mind at all. But Harry Wilson is surprisingly picking up steam as well. I’d expect that from the larger player base — people always get more popular in FPL after scoring some spectacular goals — but not from certified good FPL players.

Wilson’s 8 goals have come from 3.7 xG. He’s not Fulham’s penalty taker, and he has just one set piece assist this season, so he’s not getting a lot of points from those things either. I don’t think he’s likely to continue getting FPL points at his recent clip.

I asked Solio’s squad optimization tool for some suggested alternatives, and I got one that’s probably way off the regular and pro player base’s radar: Anthony Gordon. He’s had a weird season for Newcastle, failing to produce in the league while lighting up Champions League. But Newcastle’s upcoming fixtures are favorable:

And he’s certainly getting way more quality shots than Harry Wilson since the new year:

His xG underperformance is pretty shocking. Given that he's previously scored 11 goals in a Premier League season and is scoring a touch above his xG in Europe this season, I think it's highly unlikely that Gordon is the rare player who is underperforming his xG because he actually can’t shoot, but continues to get run as a forward anyway. Everyone either regresses to the mean or get turned into midfielders (hi Joelinton!)

Also, unlike Wilson, Gordon takes penalties. I’d be willing to bet that Gordon will have more FPL points than Wilson between now and the end of the season, barring injury.

Games we’re watching

The best place to find listings for your country is probably LiveSoccerTV.

Leeds vs. Manchester City — Yeah, I noticed the “bigger" game on Sunday. This one is going to have considerably more action. Maybe 3 more goals than the other one.

Barcelona vs. Villarreal — One of the last obvious potential traps for Barca in a tight title race. The Yellow Submarine are having an incredible season.

Borussia Dortmund vs. Bayern Munich — The outcome feels like a foregone conclusion but I’m still going to watch.

Roma vs. Juventus — Massive in the race for CL spots, if Juventus lose they’re in dire straits.

Marseille vs. Lyon — Similar thing in France. If Marseille lose, they’ll be 8 points back of a CL spot.

Stuff we’re reading

Gillian Kasirye at Total Football Analysis analyzes Alex Scott's breakout season for Bournemouth.

Grace Robertson at Grace On Football makes her pick for who Man City should target to replace Pep Guardiola when he rides off into the sunset.

Matthew Doyle at Tactics Free Zone breaks down everything from a goals-heavy Matchday 1 of MLS.

Henry Bushnell at The Athletic reports on a government funding fight that could affect the 2026 World Cup.

Ed Maylon at FootBiz digs into the Premier League launching its own streaming service and what the future might hold for broadcast rights.

Dave Proudlove at Football Heritage went meta on us and wrote about football writing.

If you enjoyed this newsletter, we’d appreciate it if you would forward it to a friend. If you’re that friend, welcome! You can subscribe to The Transfer Flow here. We also have a podcast where we go in depth on transfer news and rumours every week. We’re on YouTube here, and you can subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify by searching for “The Transfer Flow Podcast.” If you’re interested in football betting, check out this post on why we started Variance Betting.