Does this striker swap make sense for Aston Villa?

Manchester United have been in need of a striker all window (or arguably for a decade). We mentioned links to Benjamin Šeško and Randal Kolo Muani in yesterday’s newsletter, but Sebastian Vidal says that Ollie Watkins is their actual top target. Aston Villa’s current asking price is £60m, and United value him at closer to £45m. If recent trends are any indication, this means that United will buy him for £65m.

Watkins is, if nothing else, extremely consistent. He’s been the exact same guy for two seasons in a row, which is a comfortably above average but not elite striker who scores at right on his xG and provides some dribbling value to go with his solid shot volume and locations.

Watkins would certainly be an improvement on Man United’s current players, but isn’t getting them close to competing at the top of the league, and will not increase in value. You’ve already heard this spiel about the last two guys United signed.

The more interesting aspect of this rumoured transfer is who Villa could potentially replace Watkins with, and whether or not that makes the deal worthwhile to them. They’ve inquired about Loïs Openda, who had a significant down year after an outrageous 2023-24.

Check out this piece from Ashwin Raman on Scouted, where he argues for buying the dip on Openda. His pace and work rate were still looking excellent last year, and I think it’s likely that his true level is somewhere between last season’s numbers and what he did two seasons ago.

If Villa can sell Watkins for more than they’d pay for Openda, get a little bit of PSR relief and get 4 years younger at striker in the process, they should do it.

More transfer rumours

• After Morgan Gibbs-White decided to renew his contract with Nottingham Forest, Tottenham need to find a new attacking midfielder. They’re now being linked to 21-year-old Bilal El Khannouss, who reportedly has a release clause of £22.5m after getting relegated with Leicester. El Khannouss was one of the Foxes’ few bright spots last season, is a talented passer, and he’s good value at that price point. He’d fit in well at a team that had a lot more of the ball than Leicester did.

• Speaking of passing midfielders who are good value for money, can someone explain to me why Hayden Hackney is lacking in Premier League suitors? Ipswich have had a £15m bid accepted, which every single team in the bottom half of the Prem should go match today.

• Union SG are so good at finding undervalued players and flipping them. A year after signing Franjo Ivanovic for €4m, they’ve shipped him off to Benfica for €20m + incentives.

• Several Premier League teams and Bayer Leverkusen are interested in Botafogo goalkeeper John Victor, and I don’t think they just found out about him because of the Club World Cup. This dude has been a monster in Brazil.

• Dortmund and some Premier League teams are interested in Leandro Trossard, who Arsenal would really love to get a fee for before they commit to Eberechi Eze, Rodrygo, or any other expensive attacking signing.

• Sunderland have signed young Dutch U-21 goalkeeper Robin Roefs for €10m, which seems like a bargain by Prem transfer fee standards, but is NEC’s record sale.

• This is silly, but we’ll address it anyway since it’ll be a popular topic of conversation: Alexander Isak has an “agreement in principle” with Liverpool on contract terms. Whatever, this is the easy part. It’s not an indication that a deal is close. The hard part is obviously getting Newcastle to agree on a price.

• Luis Diaz to Bayern is official, as is Granit Xhaka to Sunderland.

And one last thing: We have a huge Premier League season preview coming out the week of Monday, August 4. It has detailed previews of all 20 teams, with contributions from Ted and I, plus a slew of other brilliant people. We wanted to be able to pay them fairly, so it’s £10, and you can get it here. Click the far right option and make sure the button at the bottom says £10. This sub will get you access to the whole thing: All 30,000+ words, with stats and data viz you won’t get anywhere else.

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