Donnarumma to United? Livramento to City?

We’re going to keep things tight over here on the free side the next couple of weeks, as we rub up against crunch-time deadlines with season previews, and gambling outrights that need analysed are staring us in the face. If it seems a bit more “wham, bam, thank you ma’am” than the rest of the summer, that’s the reason why.

No, this was not a backhanded comment on some of your sex lives… we save that type of stuff for Man Down.

Speaking of previews…

We have a huge Premier League season preview coming out the week of August 4. It has detailed previews of all 20 teams, with contributions from Kim and I, plus a slew of other brilliant people. We wanted to be able to pay them fairly, so it’s £10, and you can get it here. Click the far right option and make sure the button at the bottom says £10. This sub will get you access to the whole thing: All 30,000+ words, with stats and data viz you won’t get anywhere else.

For those who remember the StatsBomb previews of yore, these are the spiritual successors. And to those who don’t remember them, first of all… you missed out, and second of all… they set an incredibly high bar for quality. We’ll do our best!

• Congratulations to the England Women’s National Team for winning Euros. Kim and I are both big fans of women’s football, with Kim having worked for Angel City from their inception, while I worked with Emma Hayes and her Chelsea team some number of years ago. We understand the remit we lured you in on was discussing men’s football, not the fairer, more beautiful version of the sport. Nonetheless, we will subject you to musings from time to time, and that match against Spain last night (and pretty much the whole tournament for the Lionesses) was an epic heist movie.
  
  Honestly though, it’s kind of hard not to be amazed at Chloe Kelly’s ability to live in big moments at this point.
  
  If you are a man who has not watched women’s football yet, you should. And if you are a dad, it’s an amazing place to take your kids. Totally different atmosphere than men’s football and much more family friendly.

• We start with an international team looking at a Premier League player. No, not Jack Grealish and Napoli (boringly obvious), but instead Borussia Dortmund and Facundo Buonanotte. I watched a bunch of Buonanotte in the first half of last season and consistently came away impressed at how he seemed comfortable in the PL at the ripe old age of -checks notes- 20. He was on loan at Leicester last season, but is owned by Brighton, meaning Dortmund will likely find any potential transfer deal both complicated and expensive.

• There should be an Isak note here, but the weekend hasn’t exactly helped the dust to settle on that one. What seemed to be a nothing story as of a month ago has now escalated into an alleged player holdout in an attempt to force a move. I think we’ll discuss it a bunch more in Monday’s podcast.

• PSG are rumoured to be moving for goalkeeper Lucas Chevalier. The price for Lille’s ever-present from last season apparently starts around €40m.

• The move for Chevalier is happening because PSG can’t seem to agree to an extension for their current GK, Gianluigi Donnarumma. For anyone following Donna’s career, this isn’t a huge surprise. Milan tried for years to lock up the young Italian star, but the player and his agent were set on testing the free agent market and securing a very significant bag. (No judgment here.) But also, you know, tigers, stripes, and all that jazz. If nothing else, it makes sense to stoke the rumour mill a bit and point out that alternatives do exist, including ones who might be better shot stoppers. And who are French.

• Do you know a team that might need a high-profile GK? The red side of Manchester? Donna’s agents are playing chess here, but when it comes to the transfer market, United only play checkers.

• Depending on who you listen to, Bayern Munich are close to signing Luis Diaz for €65-75m. Which is a huge profit for Liverpool on his initial fee, and not a deal we would make for the 28-year-old, but thankfully for Liverpool, Bayern don’t read this newsletter.

• Manchester City have been quiet since their pre-CWC binge, but the end of last week saw them reclaim James Trafford from Burnley on a buy-back. (Even if Pep doesn’t love him, they can probably flip Trafford for a profit next season.) More interesting is recent interest in Newcastle’s fullback Tino Livramento. Price on that rumour is said to be near 50M, but I can’t see Newcastle selling anyone (aside from Isak) - they actually need a bigger squad to get through next season.

• Chelsea have somehow managed to flog Joao Felix to Saudi Arabia, which is both amazing for happening at all (he’s probably the biggest bust vs transfer fee (€127m!) we have seen in the modern era), and for Chelsea not taking a total bath on the deal. You know how United can’t move Sancho and Chelsea are stuck with Sterling? That’s what should have happened with Felix, but the super-agents have come through.
  
  Anyway, I’m noting it here not only out of amazement, but also because it helps Chelsea unlock new buying power and puts them in good position to satisfy UEFA’s FFP regs too.

• As was apparent last summer, Chelsea really do seem to be trying to hoard young talent across Chelsea and Strasbourg. It’s a classic Private Equity move where you find what the scarce resource is, and then buy all the possible supply you can hoping that the price moves dramatically and turns into profit. It’s happened in so many different, surprising markets at this point (housing in places where people refuse to build more being the most notable), that I guess we should just assume it works everywhere? I have been skeptical due to the factors of how player development actually works, but with enough money… maybe?

—TK

If you enjoyed this newsletter, we’d appreciate it if you would forward it to a friend. If you’re that friend, welcome! You can subscribe to The Transfer Flow here. We also have a podcast where we go in depth on transfer news and rumours every week. We’re on YouTube here, and you can subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify by searching for “The Transfer Flow Podcast.”