EPL's race for Europe can still get flipped upside-down

With 3 games left in the Premier League season, there are still 8 teams in the hunt for the final European places.

The Champions League places are still technically up for grabs, but I’d be shocked if Liverpool or Aston Villa suffered the level of collapse necessary, or if the teams below them went perfect the rest of the way. I think Bournemouth and Brentford are more likely to fall down than move up, and it’s mostly because of their remaining schedule.

Those two teams have both overperformed their own xG by a little bit this season, and have difficult fixtures remaining. Meanwhile, Brighton and Chelsea have perhaps been a tad unlucky, and have easier games on their schedule.

If you’re looking for an optimistic case for Brentford finishing 7th or better, despite having the most difficult schedule, it’s that two of their games are against teams that are likely on the beach mentally. This weekend’s game away Man City will be tough to get points from, but they finish with Crystal Palace and Liverpool, who have little to play for and might be fielding a lot of youth team players.

Bournemouth have tough games away to Fulham and at home against Man City, then will be hoping that Nottingham Forest are checked out instead of still needing points to guarantee safety on the final day.

Brighton turned in a poor performance against Newcastle last week, but will be heavy favorites against Wolves, then face Leeds and Man United teams with nothing left to play for. I think they should be considered favorites for 6th.

On the podcast, the boys review the UEFA Champions League semifinals and do an early final preview.

We’re inching closer to the World Cup, so the boys decided to get into international football on this week’s Patreon exclusive podcast. They look at 7 players who have the most to gain in their careers from good performances this summer.

It’s an active week over on Variance Betting, with Ted finding 4 Premier League games and 4 MLS games with favorable enough lines to put money on. The Premier League ones might be surprising if you’re new to football betting or a casual, but not if you’ve been following along all season. If you’re interested in learning how to be a smarter gambler, you can subscribe to Variance Betting here.

The FPL corner

On FPL Mate’s 100 experts poll, 54 of them have sold out of Cole Palmer. Turning in a stinker against Nottingham Forest was the last straw heading into a more difficult fixture against Liverpool. And at his £10.4m price point, I agree with dumping him.

Here’s Palmer since Liam Rosenior’s appointment. He’s been quite literally made to look average.

Palmer has been a tad unlucky to not score more, and is still on penalties, so I understand why some managers have stuck by him. But this is not the shot chart of someone you want to spend that much of your budget on, even if Chelsea do have a couple of more favorable fixtures to end the season.

If you haven’t made changes to your team yet, Solio’s goal projections might help you out. You should make sure you have 3 Manchester City players in your team for their double gameweek, and Palace players aren’t a bad bet either. They are risky though, they’re focused on European competition and none of their top players are going 90 in both of their games.

Isak is also a huge risk due to injury, and I’d avoid that. Richarlison is a very interesting budget/differential pick, with Spurs playing better while having other strikers injured.

And as always, if you’re looking for more detailed information on FPL meta strategies and team news, the easiest way to keep up with that is to subscribe to LazyFPL:

Games we’re watching

The best place to find listings for your country is LiveSoccerTV.

Barcelona vs. Real Madrid — While inconsequential for the table, it’s extremely consequential for people’s jobs going forward. A bad performance here could be the final straw for some players that both teams are considering selling.

Bayer Leverkusen vs. Stuttgart — Back to back weeks with matches that have huge Champions League implications in Germany. This is 4th vs. 5th, with both teams tied on 58 points.

Lille vs. Monaco — A near must-win for Lille to have a chance of catching Lyon, and an absolute eliminator for Monaco.

Milan vs. Atalanta — Milan are still securely in the top 4, but they’ve been fading fast in recent weeks, and could find themselves in some real trouble if they lose again.

West Ham vs. Arsenal — Consequential at both ends of the table. Arsenal fans, would you mind a draw here? Still keeps you in control of your own title destiny, but might help relegate Tottenham?

Stuff we’re reading

Ed Malyon at FootBiz reports on Sunderland going up for sale, and they could fetch a big price after staying up comfortably.

The Boys at Not The Top 20 have their predictions for the Championship promotion playoffs.

Phil Costa and Tom Curren at Scouted dive into how Adam Wharton became such a special player.

Yash Thakur at The Cutback asks if WSL is the best league in the world and looks into whether or not it’s possible to prove it with data.

Ben Fisher at The Guardian profiles Eli Junior Kroupi, who might be the biggest breakout star of this Premier League season.

Dermot Corrigan at The Athletic chronicles the literal infighting at Real Madrid, which if you missed it, descended into thrown punches and Fede Valverde getting knocked out this week.

Ryan O’Hanlon at ESPN gets into a topic we’ve discussed on the podcast, how badly Barcelona are running Lamine Yamal into the ground.

If you enjoyed this newsletter, we’d appreciate it if you would forward it to a friend. If you’re that friend, welcome! You can subscribe to The Transfer Flow here. We also have a podcast where we go in depth on transfer news and rumours every week. We’re on YouTube here, and you can subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify by searching for “The Transfer Flow Podcast.” If you’re interested in football betting, check out this post on why we started Variance Betting.