Following years of financial mismanagement, Everton have turned a corner and are heading in a positive direction. New owners The Friedkin Group have cleared the club’s nastiest debts, and they open a brand new stadium this season that should significantly increase the club’s revenue. There’s a lot to be optimistic about.

But the state of the squad is currently a bit of a problem. Of all the teams in the Premier League, Everton is the one likely to see the most changes between when this preview releases and when the transfer window shuts. Manager David Moyes has openly stated in press conferences that he expects 5-6 more players to arrive. A quick look at the outgoings list and current squad is enough to conclude that he’s not just whinging.

While there’s a lot of good reason for long-term optimism among Toffees, the short-term might be more of the same: mediocre football that’s just barely good enough to keep them out of trouble.

Good enough to never get dragged into a relegation battle, but aggressively boring, under both former manager Sean Dyche and new/old manager David Moyes. They also performed almost dead on their xG.

A team with budget problems, coached by Dyche and then Moyes, playing defensive football isn’t exactly surprising stuff. That they were considerably better than West Ham (and Manchester United!) should be considered a massive W, given last season’s financial constraints.

Dyche actually turned things around after a putrid start to the campaign, but his team had one awful performance too many for the Everton board’s liking. Moyes came in to steady a ship that had honestly already been steadied quite a bit by the time he showed up, but everyone probably benefited from the timing of the change.

Below, we’ve got the radars from just the Moyes period of Everton’s season, rather than the whole thing. While Moyes might have a reputation as a very old-school British manager, he probably doesn’t deserve it. Everton’s attack wasn’t good under him, but it was patient, not crossing very often and getting a high xG per shot. They also weren’t elite on set pieces, but were above average.

Defensively, Everton sat deep in shape very often, and had some of the lowest PPDA you’re ever going to see from a Premier League side. They let opponents complete 83% of their passes, but their total xG conceded and xG per shot conceded were very low. It might be dull to watch sometimes, but this was a really strong defensive outfit. The man knows how to set up a low block.

Moyes has been tactically versatile over his career, and has been experimenting with back three setups during preseason. This could theoretically suit the skills of Jarrad Branthwaite and Jake O’Brien quite well, and getting more height onto the pitch could help the Toffees dominate set pieces.

He would probably like his side to be a bit more ambitious going forward and in the press this season, if he can get the bodies to pull off such a thing. Still, I would expect to see a lot of mid-to-low defensive block setups in 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 formations early in the campaign, at least until new players have had a chance to settle into the squad. But I really hope we do get to see a more attack-minded 3-4-3 or 3-5-2 setup out of Everton this season.

A lot, and it’s going to change even more in the last three weeks of the transfer window. Several players have had their loans or contracts expire, and the recruitment department has their hair on fire trying to get reinforcements in.

Players out: W Jack Harrison, CM Jesper Lindstrom, CM Orel Mangala, ST Armando Broja, DF Mason Holgate, RB Ashley Young, ST Dominic Calvert-Lewin, CM Abdoulaye Doucoure

None of these players were stars for Everton last season, but it’s a ton of bodies and minutes to have walk out the door. All of them can theoretically be improved on, but that’s only really happened at one position so far.

Players in: ST Thierno Barry, GK Mark Travers, LB Adam Aznou

Barry and striker is that one position. No shade to Dominic Calvert-Lewin — whose best move might honestly be just re-signing with Everton as a rotation player — but Barry is a much better athlete in this point in their respective careers. Barry scored all kinds of goals for Villarreal, and is excellent at both winning aerials and running onto through balls.

Aznou is a bit of a project, but the type of gamble that Everton should take at least once a window now that they can afford to do such things. £8m for a talented but inexperienced teenage fullback from Bayern Munich is a nice weighted lottery ticket.

In summary:

The Toffees might not have lost that much quality, but they won’t be competing for the top half without adding an absolute ton of quantity.

After two endless years of transfer speculation, Branthwaite signed a new contract with Everton this summer that will keep the vultures away for at least one season. He’s an extremely talented young central defender who gives the Toffees a bit of everything — a sweet left foot, good one-on-one defending, and excellent aerial ability.

But between injuries and the general instability of the club, Branthwaite was not able to show his absolute best level last season. I’m very excited to see what he can do in a more talented and stable Everton side. And as we get into in the next section, I think he could even start scoring some goals.

This season, Everton are expected to give regular minutes to at least 4 players who are at least 6’4” (194cm) tall: Jarrad Branthwaite, Jake O’Brien, Beto, and Thierno Barry. All of them have excellent jumping ability and a history of winning a large number of aerials. Michael Keane, Nathan Patterson, James Garner and James Tarkowski are also at least 6’ tall.

But Everton were shockingly poor at set pieces under Dyche, despite his reputation as a manager who’s good at maximizing them. They improved significantly under Moyes, but still came out with just 0.27 set piece xG per 90 across the whole season — exactly league average.

Left footer Dwight McNeil was Everton’s best set piece taker with an underwhelming 14 set piece key passes, 2 set piece assists, and 1.16 spxG assisted. From the other side, Everton never found a consistent taker. Finding a right-footer who can match or exceed McNeil’s delivery quality to give the team a variety of looks would go a long way towards maximizing the potential of Everton’s set pieces. One of the 5-6 transfers Moyes is demanding should be a player who does this.

The shuffling that Moyes has done with both personnel and formation during preseason makes it difficult to nail down a first choice starting XI. If they had to win a game today, I think Gana and Garner would get the nod over Tim Iroegbunam in the center, and Jake O’Brien would get in just ahead of Nathan Patterson at right back. The other positions kind of pick themselves, though the band of 3 attacking midfielders could be shuffled around in any configuration depending on opponent matchups.

We could only vote for table position based on the players that each team has right now. And for that reason, it’s tough to make a case for Everton to make a top half push. We could be having a different conversation come September, though.

Prediction: 14th