Everyone is pretty good: A Premier League recap

The established order of the league has completely disintegrated.

Author

Kim McCauley
December 08, 2025

Maybe this says more about how I’m feeling personally than anything that’s actually happening on the pitch, but I am no longer feeling like everyone in the Premier League is mid. What if, instead, everyone is good?

The 15th placed team in the league has a goal differential of just -4. The two teams below that, Leeds and Nottingham Forest, have underperformed their underlying xG numbers all season and are more like mid-table quality. And 18th-placed West Ham, who I suspect are actually bad and heavy favorites for relegation, have just pulled out two consecutive away draws.

For several years, the Premier League has had a massive financial advantage over the rest of Europe, with even its poorest teams significantly out-earning Europa League sides on the continent. The result of this is that England’s relegation battlers can buy up Europa League quality players. And apparently the result of that happening for several consecutive years is… England’s relegation battlers being Europa League quality.

While the top 8 or so teams on the continent are still as good as England’s best, the dropoff after that elite class is quite severe. Perhaps only 2 of the 10 best teams in the world are in the Premier League, but something like 15 of the next 30 best teams come from England’s top flight.

As a result, we’ve got a pretty sick looking table and a competitive environment where anyone can beat anyone. The Premier League is daring to answer the question only weird freaks like me have ever asked: What would it look like if MLS was actually good?

Villa have done the cool thing where they improved before the xG regression monster could eat them. Now they’re just actually creating a high volume of good chances instead of relying on deflections and bangers. Good for them!

I still think that Arsenal are the best team in the Premier League and are favorites to win the title, but they’re not infallible, and will need to stop losing key players to injuries. The lack of their two starting center backs and first choice striker hurt them in this match.

Speaking of not having a real striker, yikes. I’ve derisively called Arsenal’s striker “Gymsharkeres” because he’s got that perfect Instagram physique without really doing anything functional, but Chelsea’s guys are the real fitness influencers. These mfs do nothing but cardio.

Thierno Barry has had decent underlying numbers with horrendous finishing all season, and he looked so delighted to score a goal. I think he’s going to come good for Everton.

As much as we’ve been hammering the “Forest are decent and their results will turn around” thing around here, they actually just sucked in this match. Two different spells of 30 minutes without a shot, 0.46 xG total on the day. Stinky.

Tijjani Reinders, get ready to learn bench, buddy. It’s Cherki Time.

A very standard 2-0 home win for Newcastle over one of the very few bad teams in the league, accented by a last minute penalty. Not a lot to say here.

Not only did Tottenham break their slump… they looked good? They actually significantly outplayed their opponent and created good shots? What the hell is this?

I thought Tottenham were very significantly aided by the presence of Archie Gray in midfield. The youngster was a very bad center back in his first season in the Premier League, but looked excellent in his more natural central midfield role in this game. Unlike the other players Spurs have used in that position this season, he actually attempted to play the ball forward, which had massive domino effects on every aspect of the team.

A rather uneventful first half with under 1 total xG between the two sides gave way to the most bonkers 2nd half of the entire season, and one that will once again get the pundits speculating about whether or not Arne Slot can actually get fired less than a season after winning the title.

It seems like such an oversimplification to say individual performances are Liverpool’s main problem. Usually when several individuals that have previously been a part of a winning side are all performing poorly at the same time, there’s some greater structural issue, so I am not exactly confident in my evaluation of what’s happening at Liverpool right now. But to my eyes, their central defenders are just playing extremely poorly, and their fullbacks not much better.

Thankfully for Ibrahima Konate and Virgil van Dijk, I might be the only person who mentions their names this week, because Mohamed Salah has gone and tossed a bomb in the dressing room.

More on that situation on The Podcast later today.

Georgino Rutter’s stoppage time equalizer was a big relief for Brighton, but this was a poor performance from them against an opponent they’d expect to beat pretty comfortably at home. My godson Yankuba Minteh turned in his worst game of the year the week after we gave him the big FPL recommendation treatment, so that’s my bad.

Palace might be cooking up something interesting with a slight formation change. They’ve mostly been running a 3-4-3/3-4-2-1 shape under Oliver Glasner, with the wingers playing very tucked inside to make a box midfield and let the wingbacks overlap. This game had a bit of a subtle change, where Jean-Philippe Mateta and Eddie Nketiah played a bit more like a front 2, with Yeremy Pino more like a left central midfielder who could carry wide.

Palace had to put in Nathaniel Clyne at right wingback for this one, replacing Daniel Muñoz. Clyne is the better passer of the two, but not nearly as fit and quick. So instead of playing a cut-in wingfielder, Palace gave Clyne a striker-like high outlet to look for, and it worked out.

Monday: Wolves vs. Manchester United

I imagine United will win this one comfortably, move up to 6th, and keep any potential Discourse away for a week. But they’ve only won 1 of their last 5, and the anti-Amorim grumblings are going to start up again if they don’t win this game.

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