Expect way more January transfers than usual

We’re about to change speeds around here, as transfer season briefly rolls back around. What I have been hearing from friends inside the industry is they expect a surprisingly busy January window ahead for reasons that are probably obvious to insiders, but potentially less so to everyone else.

Before I explain those reasons, let me detail our schedule for the rest of the year.

Monday - Normal
Tuesday - Normal
Weds 24-Jan 1 OFF
Jan 2 - Back and hot hot transfers.

Reason 1: The World Cup.

Specifically, the expanded World Cup. Normal World Cup transfer windows can be frantic as players jostle for places they KNOW they can play and be on display for national team coaches prior to the big dance. The expanded World Cup though… that is A LOT of additional players who are hunting for definite spots so they can participate in the North American Extravaganza.

If this were the old size World Cup, maybe it wouldn’t be as big a deal by itself, as last January was also fairly active (especially since City were trying to rebuild with Rodri’s injury), and we’d see moves representative of that. However, the Party Size edition just brings so many more players into the mix who absolutely want to be part of the squad come June, which should trigger a ton of 6-month moves or long-term adjustments all across Europe.

Obviously, given our content thrives on transfer chaos, we’d love that.

Reason 2: Everyone is in Contention

Arsenal are good, but not great and once again have injuries across the squad. City are good, but not great. Villa are weirdly in the hunt for a CL spot after a miserable summer and a lot of luck. Chelsea are waves hands. Liverpool have almost identical expected goals difference as Chelsea, won the league last season, and are a disjointed but very talented mess. Manchester United have better xGD THAN EITHER OF THOSE TEAMS.

Then you hit the race for 17th where Wolves and Burnley are doomed and West Ham are maaaaaaybe? We’ll see what happens there - there are a bunch of fantastically average teams from 3rd to 17th, which makes things competitive and hard to predict.

Then you scan around Europe and realise that nothing outside of Bayern stomping the Bundesliga looks remotely dusted either. Spain is feisty. Italy it’s normal chaotic self across the top. France is weirdly unsettled (but also broke). Scotland is potentially being won by HEARTS! It’s fun, it’s weird, and everyone outside of Celtic and Rangers fans appear to be having a good time.

So yeah, the fact that many leagues are more competitive than normal and the fact that the plus-sized World Cup is immediately on the horizon should create a delicious mélange to sniff all through January.

We’ll be right here to snarkily, intelligently cover it all. Tell your friends.

—TK

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