As the 2025-26 Serie A season headed to its final stretch following the spring international break, Fiorentina were staring at a truly disastrous scenario. They sat in 16th place with eight matches remaining, only two points ahead of 18th. Amazingly, it was a notable improvement compared to earlier in the year. 15 matches in, La Viola only had 6 points and were 8 back of 17th place Parma.

Fiorentina were able to end their season on a somewhat respectable note by going 3-4-1 in their remaining 8 matches to finish 15th. However, that last stretch of competence couldn’t wipe away the disappointment. A season in which the bare minimum expectation was to finish in the top half instead became the worst season the club has had since 2019, and one of the worst of its modern era.

It wouldn’t have been surprising to see Fiorentina look to do a mini rebuild this summer off of a disappointment to that degree. After all, Transfermarkt had them 7th for highest expenditure and 5th for net spend heading into last season. We’ve seen clubs in the past decide to take their medicine and claw back on the spending, even deciding to accept big bids for their stars to turn over a new page.

Instead, Fiorentina are seemingly going for it once again, and this time on an even grander scale. Only Juventus, Milan, and Roma have spent more than them. As of writing, no big departures have yet occurred. Multiple young midfielders have signed this summer to bolster what already was an interesting core. In addition, Fabio Grosso is the new coach in the dugout.

There’s ample excitement surrounding Fiorentina, but what is their ceiling?

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There’s no way of spinning 2025-26 for Fiorentina other than it being the year from hell. As mentioned earlier, they drastically underperformed compared to preseason expectations and ended up having to use three coaches to get through the season. The club had come off an impressive 6th place finish in 2024-25 under Raffaele Palladino, playing a fun and aggressive style both with and without the ball. Due to a rift involving himself and sporting director Daniele Pradè.

The hope was in hiring Stefano Pioli, he could at least maintain the momentum heading into this past season. This was also the same manager who only a few years ago had helped steer Milan towards winning the Scudetto in 2022. In addition, the club had spent in the region of €90 million for the likes of Roberto Piccoli, Albert Gudmundsson, and Nicolò Fagioli. Instead, Pioli only lasted till through 10 league matches before being dismissed. There were attempted game to game formation tweaks to try and fit some of the players into the starting XI, but nothing worked. The lingering disappointment over Palladino’s departure did not help things either.

You can make the argument that there was a bit of bad luck involved. After all, public expected goal models like Teams Lab had them basically at break even in terms of differential after accounting for strength of schedule and red cards. Instead, they were in the bottom three for goal differential. Statsbomb’s numbers weren’t as kind to them in the beginning stretch of the season before the change in coach.

Even if you were to believe that Fiorentina’s underlying numbers indicate they should’ve been in mid-table, it was a notable step down. There were also some bad performances during those 10 matches. This included Pioli’s final match in charge, a 1-0 home defeat to a Lecce side who barely survived relegation themselves. From there, the rest of the season was dominated by continually going behind in matches, and having to chase matches from a losing game state (which helped play a part in their overall numbers looking a lot better than the typical 15th place Serie A side).

Fabio Grosso’s coaching resume to this point is not the most extensive. He coached at various clubs in Serie B from 2017-23, with the most success coming from his two year run in Frosinone when they got promoted to Serie A in 2023. This led to him becoming the new coach of Olympique Lyonnais to begin the 2023-24 season, which turned into a nightmare for all involved. By the end of November, Lyon were last in Ligue 1 and Grosso was dismissed.

Grosso was able to rebuild his reputation over the past two seasons after taking the reins with Sassuolo. 2024-25 and 2025-26 were objectively successful campaigns for them, returning back to Serie A just one year after relegation in 2024, and then finishing in a comfortable 11th place back in the big time. The underlying numbers were not terribly off. Teams Lab had them 14th in non-adjusted non-penalty expected goal differential, while Statsbomb had them 12th. Based on that, it’s not hard to see why Grosso got the step up to coach a club of Fiorentina’s status (last season’s disaster aside).

One could try and poke holes at Grosso’s success with Sassuolo. Immediately returning to Serie A was seen as the expectation given the quality of the squad at Grosso’s disposal. Unsurprisingly, their wage bill was ranked 12th last season. Sassuolo essentially played up to where you’d hope they could be given how much they were spending on talent. Having said that, we have also seen managers underdeliver relative to the available resources at hand.

There are also question marks with how Sassuolo played under Grosso last season. A feature of their matches was a distinct lack of pressure on the ball, with them having the third highest Passes per Defensive Action (PPDA) in the league according to Statsbomb. They also had the third lowest defensive line. The most proactive out of possession sides tend to be on the opposite side of those rankings.

On occasion, Sassuolo could crank up the pressure and stymie opposing buildup along the flank by going man-to-man. However, there were halfhearted attempts at trying to press but a lack of support existed behind striker Andrea Pinamonti when he tried to angle his run. Issues also existed in terms of massive gaps that the fullbacks (Sebastian Walukiewicz on the right, Josh Doig on the left) tried to cover along the flank.

However, more often than not, Sassuolo conceded space and retreated into their mid-block. This included situations where they lost the ball deep in the opposition half, and wouldn’t attempt to counterpress. Statsbomb had them 15th for counterpressures in the opposition half in Serie A last season, and last in proportion of counterpressures in the opposition half. Sassuolo would defend in various structures around the middle third, whether it be a 4-3-3 or a flat 4-5-1. While the goal was to block central progression, the lack of staggering in the 4-5-1 configuration allowed opponents with higher-end talent to play through them. A worrying thing with the defensive block was when the defensive line was higher than usual, but the opponents would have the space and time on the ball to attempt killer passes in behind. Their defeat to Como was an example of them regularly getting sliced and diced.

On the ball, Sassuolo did their best work when they’re able to attack space in non-settled scenarios. This came from quick combinations deep in their own third before launching it to the front line, including finding Armand Laurienté on the left. There were also direct attacks from their mid-block working as expected. From Sahil Gidwani’s Footverse app, among clubs in the big 5 leagues last season, Sassuolo were in the 87th percentile for direct attacks and 72nd for ratio of direct attacks to build-ups. Laurienté would be able to occupy different positions on the left side, whether it be out wide as the outlet or moving inwards to receive within the channel.

Laurienté’s influence also came into play during settled possession, with Sassuolo’s attack primarily coming through wide combinations. Both him and Domenico Berardi on the opposite flank showed varied movements during those sequences, while the fullbacks would provide third man runs going forward with the wide midfielders (Ismaël Koné, Kristian Thorstvedt) acting as a potential release valve. When it worked, there would be some neat one touch sequences or Laurienté operating as a playmaker to find Doig going forward.

Sassuolo were heavily dependent on the wingplay working in their favor, particularly Laurienté’s ability to create for others. Otherwise, it was hard for them to reliably bypass the opposition press. If they were being pressed man-to-man, it wasn’t unusual to see the backline force ground passes towards the front line, trying to play off of them if they’re able to receive in a functional manner. Even when trying to create numerical superiorities during buildup, they could end up being vulnerable to conceding high danger turnovers. Last season’s zones of control map from Sassuolo, courtesy of Opta Analyst, shows how much they had to rely to operating along the flanks.

More than anything, the excitement concerning Fiorentina stems from what they’ve done in the transfer market. Their spending has been among the highest in the division, and a lot of those funds have been directed towards talents on the younger side of the aging curve. The five highest transfers are for guys 24 and under.

The midfield recruitment is the most intriguing of the business conducted. In Arthur Atta and Christ Inao Oulaï, La Viola were able to snag two of the better midfield prospects in Europe at the moment. We highlighted Atta’s unique profile last season as something of a free eight in midfield who can puncture opponents repeatedly through individual ball carrying brilliance. Oulaï was a regular starter at a very young age for a Trabzonspor side which finished third in the Süper Lig. On the biggest stage possible at this summer’s World Cup, Oulaï flashed a very high capacity for escaping pressure and progressing play through the central areas (his performance versus Germany remains a scintillating watch).

Fiorentina’s business outside of acquiring Atta and Oulaï was interesting in its own right. There was a merry-go-round of forwards in Serie A, and they were involved with Parma and Bologna. Mateo Pellegrino was signed from Parma for an initial fee of €22.5 million, while they had loaned out Roberto Piccoli to Bologna with an obligation to pay €18m if they remain in Serie A. (finish sentence about Pellegrino as possible succession plan to Kean were he to move at some point).

Other permanent deals done by Fiorentina so far this summer include signing central defender Viery from Grêmio in Brazil for €15m (including add-ons), converting the previous loans into transfers for midfielders Marco Brescianini and Giovanni Fabbian, and a potentially fun prospect in Víctor Valdepeñas from Real Madrid for €8m (with a 50% sell-on clause). You also had the likes of Alex Jimenez, Franco Mastantuono, João Mário, and Radu Drăgușin join on loan.

It’s an impressive infusion of talent from a Serie A side that battled relegation for the majority of last season. In particular, there’s an embarrassment of riches in midfield, to the point where there might not be enough minutes to distribute (especially if there’s no deep run in domestic cup competition). Trying to keep the dressing room satisfied will be a challenge for Grosso.

Few are expecting Fiorentina to struggle like they did in 2025-26. Just the sheer amount of completed business should provide a bounceback of some kind. Their midfield core now has multiple credible initiators to create on the ball. Last season, a lot relied on Nicolò Fagioli to make things happen so that his midfield partners Rolando Mandragora and Cher Ndour would focus on crashing the box. Mastantuono could provide an attacking spark on the right side, as he tries to rebound after a tough debut season in Madrid.

Perhaps the best thing Fiorentina has done so far has not been a single move, but the absence of a certain one. There’s been buzz concerning Moise Kean’s future with Fiorentina, including Como’s recent attempt at trying to acquire him on the cheap. By the end of 2024-25, his ability to attack the box off the ball turned him into one of the better forwards in Europe, finishing second in Serie A’s goalscoring list. In comparison, last season was a nightmare for him and it’s hard to envision Kean’s finishing going this cold for a second straight year.

At the end of the day, a lot of what happens in the upcoming season might come back to Grosso’s coaching capacity. He’s certainly been given the most talented squad he’s ever had at his disposal, although finding suitable roles for a lot of the players might be a tough task. Perhaps he’ll try to play as many midfielders as possible, including having Atta float a lot on the left flank. Fiorentina’s 4-1 victory in the Coppa Italia Round of 64 against Serie B side Benevento saw La Viola start Brescianini, Fagioli, Ndour, and Atta.

Even the most skeptical analysts would likely concede that Fiorentina will improve off of last season. The question is how much upward mobility do they have. If Grosso can fix some of the out of possession concerns (including not getting regularly exposed to counter attacks), along with finding more ways to play through the opposition, it should help establish a solid floor. There’s reason to believe a version of Fiorentina which is closer to their apex could credibly challenge for the top 7 and European qualification. Anything beyond (i.e., chasing a Champions League spot) would involve them taking advantage of multiple big clubs in Italy having down seasons.

Given all that, Fiorentina will be one of the most fascinating experiments going in Europe for the 2026-27 season.

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