By looking at just the final table position and statistics over the full 38-game campaign, most people would come to the conclusion that Fulham had an excellent season. Once a bit of a yo-yo team and expected regular relegation battler, the Cottagers have firmly established themselves as a Premier League side, and set a club record points total last season with 54, alongside an even goal differential.
But the final months made for a bit of a roller coaster ride. Fulham were flying high during the winter, looking capable of challenging for a European place. They couldn’t hold that position, with injuries and fatigue taking a toll on their defense, as they lost 3 of their last 4 matches. What was arguably the best season in Fulham’s history ended on a sour note.
Manager Marco Silva and owners the Khan family are not panicking, and have decided to run it back. They’ve conducted almost no transfer activity this summer, in or out, and seem to believe that consistency and internal improvement are the ticket to Premier League success.
Or Tony and Shahid are too busy running their wrestling company and NFL team to sort out some signings, depending on who you ask.
How good were they last year?
Pretty good, and pretty much right on their xG. They both scored more than you’d expect and conceded more, but came out to an even result in the end.
Non-penalty xG | Goals | |
|---|---|---|
Scored | 43.21 | 49 |
Conceded | 41.74 | 50 |
Goalkeeper Bernd Leno was an exactly average shot stopper, so he wasn’t the problem. I think Fulham just got a bit unlucky that opposing teams placed their shots extremely well against them. But Fulham did the same thing on the other end, placing shots well and scoring right on their post-shot xG.
The trend lines are looking a little bit like my EKG while I’m watching my favorite team play. For most of the year, Fulham’s xG for and against were about even, as you’d expect. But they had a couple outstanding runs of form, punctuated by the end of season defensive collapse.

Hopefully Silva’s had a little chat with the sports science staff to figure out exactly what went wrong and how to prevent the players from burning out in May in the future.
What is Marco Silva’s deal?
This is going to sound like an insult, and I swear it isn’t: Marco Silva is the most normal manager on earth. If you’re playing Football Manager and you click the buttons that just say balanced tactic because you’re a beginner, it gives you Marco Silva’s tactics. I think that this is very good for a team of Fulham’s current budget and squad composition. It is why they scored 54, conceded 54, and finished in 11th place.
Fulham’s attack did come out below league average in xG, but I think they did so in a way that enabled their defense to be successful. Their goalkeeper’s average pass distance is very short, and they’re good at avoiding crap turnovers. This is a really solid possession as defense team.

Their defensive radar is almost exactly the league average one, though they are good at not allowing a high number of counter-attacking shots, thanks to their very hard working and tactically intelligent defensive midfield partnership. They are neither a high pressing or non pressing team. They’re as mid-block as it gets.

Fulham will probably continue to play 4-2-3-1 with a mid-block defense, a 10 that does some pressing, and two holding midfielders. One criticism I have for Silva is that Fulham definitely crosses too much for a team that plays with 1 striker, and usually with two more cut-in or opposite-footed wingers than traditional ones. They should probably be better at getting cut-in or cutback shots towards the top of the box than they are.
How has the squad changed?
This is going to be extremely brief!
Players out: W Reiss Nelson, W Willian, FW Carlos Vinicius
Nelson was injured early on in his loan spell and didn’t play many minutes. Willian and Vinicius were both bit part players who left on frees. There have been no departures of significant note for Fulham.
Players in: GK Benjamin Lecomte
He’s a backup goalkeeper.
Here’s a summary, I guess!
xG + xA | OBV | Minutes Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
Out | 2.63 | 3.22 | 899 |
In | 0.11 | -4.12 | 2920 |
Star player they’re depending on: Antonee Robinson
Robinson was playing hurt towards the end of the season, and it was clear how big of a problem it was for Fulham when he wasn’t at his best. He underwent minor arthroscopic knee surgery in the offseason and is already back in training. They’ll need him back to his best, because their left back gave them a bit of everything, to go along with 10 goal involvements.
He provided plus value with his ball winning, had high ball winning volume, won a ton of aerials for a fullback, and was a very good passer, dribbler, and crosser. If he didn’t have a knee injury, I think Fulham would have struggled to fight off bids from richer clubs for Robinson this summer.

In Robinson’s absence, Ryan Sessegnon has been playing left back during preseason friendlies, and there’s a significant dropoff in defensive quality between the two.
Can the midfield give them something more?
I will give the same caveat here as I did in the Silva section: What I’m about to say will sound like an insult, but I promise it isn’t. Sander Berge and Saša Lukić are very basic defensive midfielders.
Berge was the holder, while Lukić was the guy who did the closing down, and they complimented each other well in these roles. But neither offered the team anything in terms of ball progression. In possession, they kept it simple and just made sure they weren’t the guy who screwed things up. Good teams can get away with having one of those players in their midfield, but usually not two.

If Fulham is going to make a step up from “comfortably avoiding relegation” to “challenging for Europe,” this is the thing that will need to change. One of Berge or Lukić will need to show the ability to break lines with carrying or passing and draw opposing defenses out of position. You can’t blame the lack of attacking playmaking all on the band of 3 attacking midfielders when the guys in the middle aren’t good at getting them the ball.
Andreas Pereira has not shown an ability to do this, in my opinion, and is just a decent squad player at this point in his career. I’m very interested to see more of 18-year-old academy product Josh King, who made his first Premier League appearances last season. He’s been more of a No. 10 in his youth career, but has got some time as an 8 in preseason and has a really promising skillset as a ball progressor in that role.
Projected best XI and prediction
Fulham have thus far rejected any approaches for Rodrigo Muniz in the transfer market. I don’t think they’d do that if he wasn’t going to get more minutes than Raul Jimenez up top this season.
I also think Harry Wilson was quite a bit better than Adama Traore last season. I understand that there’s a bit of concern that without Adama in the lineup there just isn’t a ton of pace overall, but I’d lean towards playing your best footballers.
Castagne and Tete basically split minutes last year and I can’t decide who’s better. It’s a coin toss for me. The other members of the back 4 were really good last year. I have not yet mentioned Calvin Bassey, which I am rectifying now — he was one of the most underrated defenders in the Premier League last year. He doesn’t stand out because he’s not great in the air, but he’s super reliable otherwise.

Our contributors varied quite a bit on where they thought Fulham would finish, but I thought the aggregate landed on something fair. They won’t be fighting for a European place, but will also be well clear of the relegation battle.
Prediction: 13th

