Fulham sit at the roulette table and put it all on black

What should your transfer strategy look like if you’re Fulham? In both finances and prestige, they’re a team glued to the middle of the table. Unlikely to be relegated without a catastrophic set of injuries or several consecutive years of transfer incompetence, but not much more likely to qualify for Europe without an outrageously lucky run.

It’s theoretically possible to turn £1 into £1,25 over and over until you’re a big club in 10 years, but that’s difficult and requires a ton of patience. More realistically, if Fulham wants to qualify for Europe and have chances to win a European trophy, they need to take some big risks in the market. And they’re rumored to be doing just that this January.

First up, Manchester City and Norway winger Oscar Bobb, who is reportedly close to moving to Craven Cottage. Despite not playing a full season of professional football, he’s going to cost somewhere in the range of £30m. His numbers look promising in limited action, but this is a tiny sample with a lot of sub effects.

I didn’t put a comp to a previous season in here because this is every Bobb season. This is actually the most Premier League minutes he’s ever played. The Cottagers are betting he can turn his tools into star production if actually given an extended run in the first team, but the odds of a total flop are pretty big. He had a serious injury last year, and he’s never done it consistently before.

Similar things can be said about their striker target, Ricardo Pepi from PSV and the United States. His radar looks nice! This seems like a talented young striker who offers quite a bit of shooting production and pressing.

But Pepi has been injured several times over the past three seasons. He’s never played 1000 league minutes in a season for PSV. This year, he’s missed time for a couple more minor injuries, including one suffered just two weeks ago.

The best versions of Bobb and Pepi are obvious upgrades for Fulham, and would be complimentary pieces who combined for a ton of goals. The evidence that they can actually stay on the pitch for a majority of the season and present the best versions of themselves on a consistent basis is basically zero.

Maybe that’s the kind of gamble you need to take if you’re Fulham, but my stomach hurts thinking about dropping £60m on two guys with no history of playing 2000+ minutes in a season.

Variance Betting update

Hey, since we’re talking about gambling. Before we get into the other rumours for today, I wanted to share today’s Variance Betting post on the final day of the UEFA Champions League for this phase. Ted’s got a whopping 12 bets on, with a lot of them being over-unders. If you’d like to see explanations for all of Ted’s bets on the UEFA Champions League, Premier League and EFL Championship and learn how to become a much smarter gambler, you can subscribe to VB here.

More transfer rumours

• In other Fulham news, they’ve sold Adama Traore to West Ham. Another one of those big dice rolls they had to take that worked out… OK, not great.

• And that leads us into a massive pile of West Ham news. They don’t like their goalkeepers very much, and they’re trying to get Spurs backup Antonin Kinsky on loan with an option to buy. I like him quite a bit and think he’d be an upgrade for the Hammers.

• The Hammers have also found a loan for the albatross contract that is James Ward-Prowse, a set piece specialist who unfortunately isn’t good at the other parts of football. Perhaps Burnley can make the most of that skill, but I suspect he just makes their midfield worse.

• And in the biggest bit of West Ham news, they’ve agreed to sell Lucas Paqueta to Flamengo. Not sure why the fee is reported as €42m when neither club is in a place that uses Euros as currency, but whatever.

• Atlético Madrid are trying to sign Ederson from Atalanta, who I like a lot. He was reportedly a target for Manchester United in the summer, and I was surprised when they didn’t get it done. Good all-around CM, would improve most teams.

• Nottingham Forest have offered £35m for Jean-Philippe Mateta, which Crystal Palace have rejected while supposedly asking for £40m. At a gap that small, you’d think a deal gets done.

• Lazio have had a bid for Tim Iroegbunam rejected by Everton, who I think have done a pretty good job developing him this year. He’s still not great as a passer, but his carrying and defensive contributions have both been very solid, and I think they’re right to hold onto him for a while longer.

• Apparently Prem clubs are “prepared to pay up to €40-50m for Tim Lemperle before deadline day,” and I’m not buying it. Bro’s agent is yapping to get a raise. Are you paying €50m for this?

• Juventus just want any attacking player. Federico Chiesa, Randal Kolo Muani, Joshua Zirkzee. Just anyone who gets into the vicinity of the box.

• Aston Villa are both competing for the title and building a giant house of cards, signing Tammy Abraham and now Douglas Luiz. Know how West Ham have a bunch of expensive old guys they can’t sell? Yeah. See you in 3 years.

• Some very bored people are chatting shit about Cole Palmer hating London and wanting to move to Manchester United, the club he supported as a boy. Unsurprisingly, Chelsea view him as untouchable and do not plan on being bullied into selling a player with a 7-year contract. What number even gets Chelsea on the phone? £120m?

• And finally, both Chelsea and Man United are interested in 18-year-old Mohamed Kader Meite, who’s going to be the subject of tons of rumours until he makes a big move. If you’re an 18-year-old with this kind of Ligue 1 production, you can ball.

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