Fun's over, favorites are dominating the World Cup now

Hey, Kim here. Egypt and Colombia were 2 of my favorite teams to watch at the World Cup, and I was really looking forward to rooting for them in the quarterfinals. I’m having a bad time.

Switzerland and Colombia played one of the matches of all time

Readers of the World Cup notebook will know that despite only scoring five goals in their four matches, I was high on Colombia heading into the round of 16. They displayed a patient yet fun style of play, full of fluid interchanges and the ability to play controlled chaos ball when needed. This could’ve been a real opportunity for them to fully solidify their credentials in the tournament, although it wouldn’t be easy given Switzerland have been a functional side so far (who were missing their sparkplug in Johan Manzambi).

For how exciting the World Cup has been, this match was a reminder of what a cagey knockout stage match can look like. Switzerland had a bit of success playing past Colombia’s pressing attempts, as they didn’t fully commit going man-to-man higher up. A lack of quality didn’t allow them to turn those moments into shots on the board, and potentially of good quality. There were also some gaps emerging within Colombia’s mid-block, but weren’t taken advantage of with dynamic movements and lack of quality on the killer pass. Meanwhile, this was the worst Colombia had looked from settled possession. What made them fun to watch was the combinations of players taking up different positions, complemented with runs in behind. There wasn’t enough of the latter against Switzerland’s determined defensive block, which led to passive possession.

The second half was more of the same between these two teams, with shot attempts in of itself a rare sight. There were six shots combined, with none of them close to being a big chance. The substitute appearance of Juan Quintero just before the second hydration break did provide Colombia with a jolt in attack, as he tried to make something happen. There were a number of audacious passing attempts, including fizzed passes between the lines and one touch deliveries in behind. Unsurprisingly, the match went into extra time.

In a match where high quality chances weren’t plentiful, Colombia were gifted an incredible opportunity in the 114th minute to almost surely end it. Off of an awkward clearance from Granit Xhaka, Jaminton Campaz collected the loose ball in the box for a clear shot against Gregor Kobel. Unfortunately for him, he got under it too much and the scoreline remained 0-0.

Penalties were needed to decide who’d end up facing Argentina in the quarterfinals. A fair number of the spot kicks were of questionable quality, mostly from Colombia. Ruben Vargas eventually stepped up at the end, and his successful kick sent Switzerland to the QFs for the first time since 1954. Colombia will be bitterly disappointed that they weren’t the victors in this very winnable match, departing the tournament arguably a round or two earlier than expected even just a couple of days ago. Can Switzerland find a way to frustrate an increasingly beatable Argentina side? We’ll find out on Saturday. —MM

Well that’s a devastating way to say goodbye to Mohamed Salah

Mohamed Salah is one of my favorite footballers of all time. I am not a Liverpool fan, nor am I Egyptian. But I have found the way that he separates from a defender, finds an inch of space, and quickly gets his shot off to be one of the most enjoyable things that any footballer does.

Unfortunately, Salah is now 34 years old, an age at which most players who were once very reliant on physical skills start to decline. We saw it happen in real time for Liverpool this season, but Egypt have done an excellent job of building a structure that allows Salah to run as little as possible and still get him in positions to score or assist.

Despite that, in the 90th minute of his 5th game in 3 weeks, Salah had nothing left. At the end of what is likely to be his final truly top level competitive match — at least as the star player and focal point of a team — Salah had his Certified Unc Moment™️.

Between their first and second goals, Egypt had a goal disallowed for a foul early in the buildup that felt like an extremely unjust and overzealous use of VAR. Between their quick response to go ahead 2-0 anyway, followed by their extremely poor bunker job over the following 25 minutes, it is hard to say that they were robbed. Egypt threw this game away, and Argentina were ready to receive their gift.

Because of the end result, it’s probably going to be forgotten that Argentina were tactically poor. They lacked any kind of creative threat out wide, and got absolutely smoked on the counter-attack. Lionel Messi’s genius might be able to will them past Switzerland, but La Albiceleste are eventually going to run into an opponent that’s too good for them to simply get away with waiting for a bailout. The boys on The Transfer Flow Podcast are going to talk about what Argentina can do about that today, so I suggest tuning in for that discussion, which is centered around Giuliano Simeone. —KM

If you enjoyed this newsletter, we’d appreciate it if you would forward it to a friend. If you’re that friend, welcome! You can subscribe to The Transfer Flow here. We also have a podcast where we go in depth on transfer news and rumours every week. We’re on YouTube here, and you can subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify by searching for “The Transfer Flow Podcast.” If you’re interested in football betting, check out this post on why we started Variance Betting.