Gordon to Arsenal makes sense, but...

Every summer, we get a story about how the Premier League’s traditional big clubs are interested in Anthony Gordon, but they’re either scared off by the price or told to do one by Newcastle. Between the Magpies disappointing in the Premier League and restructuring their front office around a new director of football, this summer might be a bit different.

Enter this less than reliable EXCLUSIVE that you should take with several grains of salt, but that we’re going to discuss for entertainment purposes. Arsenal are reportedly interested in Gordon, which makes sense on several levels. Left wing is a position they could stand to upgrade. They’d love a player with Gordon’s physical tools. At age 25, he’s likely close to his peak, but unlikely to decline physically before the end of a 5-year contract. We’re at least passing the smell test up front.

But there’s a much more important question to answer, which is whether Gordon is actually good enough to improve Arsenal. He’s been a pretty consistent performer year over year, with any differences in output pretty easily explained by the difference in how he was deployed. Gordon has produced more xG, but less dribbling value this year compared to last. This is almost entirely explained by him playing more center forward this year, when he previously played left wing almost exclusively.

Gordon looks like a pretty solid, if unspectacular all-around forward. He’s not a big assister, but his xG assisted numbers aren’t terrible. He’s not known as a great passer, but there’s no indication in his numbers that he’s a minus passer either. He can dribble past a man and gets a decent number of shots, but he’s not in the elite category for either. In summary: A very good player, not quite a great one.

His shot charts would concern me if I was the Director of Football getting ready to approve committing roughly £100m in transfer and wage spend. Even playing more striker, he’s not getting a ton of shots in great locations this year.

And the sheer volume of shots he had blocked — especially from outside the penalty area — last season is even more alarming. He’s not going to have more space on a better team that’s playing against packed defenses.

I’m not sure exactly what Arsenal’s ideal left wing signing should look like, but I’m confident that a team with their pull and financial resources can find a guy who is more of something. More quality shots, more assists, or more dribbling output. Gordon’s a fine player who wouldn’t make them worse, but it’s not obvious that he’d make the Gunners better. For the kind of money Newcastle would demand to let Gordon go, I don’t think it would be a worthwhile investment.

More transfer rumours

• Vini Jr. rumours are the same as the perpetual Gordon ones on a bigger scale. Every year the Prem teams and his agent have a little chat, they figure out it doesn’t work for both sides, and he stays at Madrid. Same stuff, different summer.

• With Bernardo Silva set to leave Manchester City, he’s expected to have a lot of interest from Barcelona and Juventus. I expected him to leave the continent for semi-retirement, but I’d love to watch him aura farm in a Blaugrana shirt.

• Rodri could also leave this summer, with Pep Guardiola admitting that if the midfielder asked to leave for Real Madrid, the club would be willing to negotiate. Given his injury history and struggle to come all the way back from his ACL tear, I’d take the money.

• We mentioned last week that Guglielmo Vicario’s stats don’t suggest that Tottenham should collect a big fee for him, and Inter Milan are interested in buying low. The reported fee is €20m, which sounds about right to me, but Spurs won’t like it.

• I’m not sure how Spurs can actively recruit anyone at the moment, but they’re reportedly pursuing Rennes striker Esteban LePaul. This is the exact kind of player I expect Spurs to overpay for, so consider it as good as done if they stay up.

• Man United getting linked to Southampton midfielder Shea Charles is probably just agent yapping. But he’s been good in the Championship this season and at the quoted £20m, I don’t think he’d be a bad pickup for mid-table sides.

• BlueCo are going to continue circulating money around their own clubs when Chelsea “buys” Valentin Barco “from Strasbourg.” I’m very skeptical about him being good enough for Chelsea.

• Chelsea are also reportedly interested in Sunderland goalkeeper Robin Roefs, who’s had an excellent season after moving from the Netherlands. Apparently it would cost £60m, which would be a 7x ROI for the Black Cats in one year. Decent business, that.

• Roma would like to sign both Dario Osorio and Franculino from Midtjylland, which will apparently cost them €15-20m. If they pull it off, I think they’ll be flipping both of those guys to richer clubs for 2-3x the money in the future. While Rome has a reputation for being the weakest food city in Italy, I really like what they’re cooking at the Stadio Olimpico.

• I’m not sure why Premier League clubs weren’t falling over themselves to sign Angelo Siller the last two windows, but it’s going to get a lot harder. He has a release clause at the moment, but Stuttgart can pay Stiller a €2m fee to cancel it. Now, instead of €36m, he’s going to cost a lot more than that. Every single team in the league should have made an offer in January.

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