Hey Jude, don't be afraid, you were made to go out and score goals

A chaotic World Cup group stage and Round of 32 has given way to a completely chalk semifinal. The 4 best teams in the world remain. If you missed our piece on the first quarterfinal, here’s what we had to say about Kylian Mbappe and France. A roundup of the other 3 is below.

Also, before we get started today, Variance Inc. is hiring for a data engineer role. If you’re interested, you can apply here.

Spain showcase attacking versatility in deserved win over Belgium

After overcoming Portugal thanks to a stoppage-time winner in the Round of 16, Spain were expected to have a less challenging quarter-final against Belgium. They received an additional boost just before kick-off, as opposition captain Youri Tielemans suffered an injury in the warm-up and weakened an already limited midfield.

Even so, La Roja would need another late Mikel Merino winner to set up the much-anticipated semi-final against France. They hardly ever looked in danger of going behind, though, as they were the better team for the vast majority of the contest.

Once again, Luis de la Fuente’s side got off to a quiet start as they first sought to establish greater control over possession and territory. They started channelling their attacks to the right — especially through Lamine Yamal — after the first break, and quickly found a way through before the half-hour mark. The Barcelona superstar was involved in the build-up to the opener, which was turned in by surprise starter Fabián Ruiz.

The Spanish coach’s decision to go with the PSG midfielder in place of Pedri surely raised quite a few eyebrows pre-match, but he’ll be satisfied with how things worked out in the end. Unlike the USA game, Belgium were unable to cause any problems with their long goal kicks here, hardly even testing Spain’s unbeaten defence.

However, the Red Devils would be the ones to end Spain’s five-match clean sheet streak at the World Cup as Charles De Ketelaere expertly headed home a cross before half-time. To say that the goal had been coming would be quite inaccurate; this was just Belgium’s second attempt for the match. They then managed to open up the game in certain moments, putting together some threatening breaks.

Spain responded with a double change in the 55th minute that introduced Pedri as well as Ferran Torres, ushering in a slight change of shape. Rodri had operated as more of a lone six going forward in the first half, but he was now joined by the Barcelona technician in a double pivot. This, in turn, gave Dani Olmo more freedom to drift around between the lines. Torres, meanwhile, formed an effective front two alongside Oyarzabal, inviting Marc Cucurella further up the left wing.

The two deeper midfielders provided excellent balance both with the ball and through their decision-making in the counterpress, platforming a sustained spell of Spanish pressure. Lamine Yamal obviously remained a threat, while the central attackers also showed some lively link-play ideas. All of this led Belgium to respond with a triple change, which saw Romelu Lukaku come on as a target for long balls while Axel Witsel’s introduction enabled them to form a back five while dropping into a low block.
The third Belgian entrant, left back Joaquin Seys, did an excellent job of containing Lamine Yamal out wide with support from Jérémy Doku, who also served as an excellent ball-carrying outlet. Spain very much had the impetus as their opponents largely stayed quite deep and struggled to get out, but were themselves having difficulties in getting clear shots away.

De la Fuente gave his side another dimension by introducing Nico Williams for Mikel Oyarzabal, looking to stretch the pitch horizontally with two wide threats. But the ultimate game-changer would be in the centre. Barely a couple of minutes after coming on, Merino turned in a rebound spilt by substitute keeper Senne Lammens from Pau Cubarsí’s long shot, thus settling the contest.

France will undoubtedly be a few steps up in quality, but Spain can take a good deal of encouragement from their ability to balance attacking thrust with security and control in this game. They look somewhat closer to their best in possession, so it could well be the sturdiness of their defence that is the decisive factor in the blockbuster semi-final. —NS

Jude Bellingham (and some good fortune) pushes England closer to glory

After surviving a thriller at the Azteca versus Mexico, many were curious to see what England had left in the tank on a hot Saturday afternoon against Norway. Norway themselves were in the midst of their best World Cup run ever, reaching the quarterfinals for the first time after comfortably handling Brazil in the round of 16 (courtesy of a brace from Erling Haaland).

Rather unsurprisingly, the match took a while to get going. The first attempt from either side was in the 29th minute from a free kick by Harry Kane. Despite the lack of shots, England were generating a bit of success from trying to overload Norway’s backline since they didn’t retreat into a situational back five. Channel runs in between the central defender and fullback was where they tried to create threatening situations. As well, there were numerous attempts at trying to make quick switches of play to overload on the far side. For Norway, they tried to do something similar on occasion (without the numerical advantage) but mostly looked to create counters from deep. It led to a lot of stale possession, which wasn’t unexpected given the gravity of the stakes at hand.

Almost suddenly, the match sprung to life in the final 10 or so minutes. There was a header from Haaland where he got to show his impressive leaping ability. England tried to attack immediately afterwards with Harry Kane coming deep, but Patrick Berg dispossessed him and possession was shuffled towards Andreas Schjelderup on the left flank. He then attempted what looked to be a cross towards the far post, but the attempt ended up sneaking past Jordan Pickford to give Norway the lead.

There were some nervy moments afterwards for England, before they equalized in added time of the first half. The goal itself contained some controversy at the beginning, with Norway’s goalkeeper Ørjan Håskjold Nyland seemingly hitting the spider cam wire with his goal kick which fell down towards England. After a little shift on the ball from Anthony Gordon, Jude Bellingham displayed another example of his impressive box-crashing prowess and his left footed strike tied the match.

England nearly took the lead before the halftime whistle, but Kane’s delicate chip over Nyland was called back for offside. Thomas Tuchel tried to be proactive with a double change at the break, as Declan Rice and Noni Madueke made way for Bukayo Saka and Eberechi Eze. This forced Elliot Anderson to play a deeper role, with Bellingham also moving a bit deeper. Ball progression became harder for England, and unsurprisingly, they only generated three shots in the second half (none being of high quality). Meanwhile, Norway thought they had retaken the lead from a scramble in the six yard box off of a corner, but Haaland’s shove on Anderson was later deemed a foul by VAR.

Three more substitutions were used from England in the back half of the 2nd half (Reece James for Anthony Gordon, Djed Spence for Nico O’Reilly, Morgan Rogers for Ezri Konsa) in the hopes of eventually improving their ability to progress play. Norway’s substitution of Oscar Bobb for Alexander Sørloth did take away their capacity to go route one towards the front line, although Sørloth’s lack of composure on the ball reared its ugly head at points during the match. Norway had another opportunity from a corner, but Kristoffer Ajer’s header hit the post in the 75th minute. Saka nearly created a late winner while being defended 1v2, but his driven pass towards the far post was cleared by Fredrik Aursnes.

The match went into extra time, where an unfortunate blunder from Nyland ultimately cost Norway their chance at advancing to the semifinals. What should’ve been a routine save instead became a juicy rebound for Bellingham to get his second, pouncing on it like an accomplished striker would. It brought Bellingham to six goals in the 2026 World Cup, tying him with Kane in the same tournament and Gary Lineker in 1986 for most goals scored by an English player in a single run.

England nearly had a penalty to make it 3-1 and out of reach for Norway in the 98th minute, but Spence was judged by VAR to have stuck his leg across Bobb while trying to draw a call. Haaland’s exit at the beginning of the second half of extra time for Jorgen Strand Larsen was surprising given the circumstances. England held on for the final whistle, emerging victorious and making it to the semifinals to take on Argentina in a matchup full of narratives. Powered by their golden generation, Norway had a great run and should be proud of what they accomplished. On another day, they could’ve been the ones facing Lionel Messi in the semis. After back to back tough matches against Mexico and Norway, we’ll see if there’s enough left in the tank to get even closer to ending 60 years of hurt. —MM

Red card changes everything as Argentina advance over Switzerland

In a match where tactics were almost entirely decided by game states, Argentina progressed to the semifinal, prevailing 3-1 over Switzerland after extra time.

Alexis MacAllister placed a gorgeous header into the corner off a precise Lionel Messi corner in the 10th minute, and La Albiceleste didn’t take another shot for the rest of the first half. Switzerland tried to strike the right balance between pushing for an equalizer and not giving Messi any space to attack into, but it was a cagey affair until halftime.

Switzerland opened up to start the second half, with Dan Ndoye nearly scoring in the 50th minute before Lisandro Martinez made a spectacular sliding block. But the Nottingham Forest man would eventually get the best of Argentina, scoring a sensational 67th minute equalizer.

And then 3 minutes later, the game was over.

By the pure luck of the draw, I have ended up with most of the games during this World Cup that were significantly altered by controversial refereeing decisions, and thus produced Ref Discourse. This is my least favorite football topic to discuss, but in the case of Argentina vs. Switzerland, it is completely impossible to address in one sentence and then move on.

Breel Embolo’s 72nd minute red card was decisive. Here is a funny graph to prove it.

The sending off occurred as a result of a “mistaken identity” VAR review, though not in the traditional sense of the term. Usually that means the referee has misidentified the players involved in an incident, but in this case, the mistake was that Leandro Paredes was carded at all. Replays showed that he never made contact with Embolo, who very clearly simulated the foul. The Swiss forward was shown a second yellow card for diving, and a cagey, dead even contest suddenly became quite one-sided.

Switzerland did an excellent job to hold out for extra time, but the longer Argentina got to play 11v10, the heavier the Swiss legs got. Julian Alvarez scored a banger from the edge of the penalty area in the 112th minute, and clearly there was no way back for Switzerland after that. Lautaro Martinez added an exclamation point at the end.

I’m disappointed we didn’t get to see what this match would have become if Embolo wasn’t sent off. But I’m also of the opinion that diving is cheating, that referees need to be more strict about enforcing the rules around it, and that the second yellow was correct.

We now get another installment of the England-Argentina rivalry, in their first competitive match since 2002. I might not be thrilled about how we got here, but the tournament has led to a pair of absolutely classic semifinals. —KM

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