Hot new World Cup trends: Low block, get it in the mixer

Yesterday featured three classics in the genre of “underdog plays super low block against better side in international knockout game.” Japan looked slightly out of their element, but almost pulled it off against Brazil. Paraguay pulled off a massive upset against Germany. And a negative Netherlands nearly held on to upset an entertaining Morocco side, but fell on penalties 🙂 

Brazil go 4-4-2 and get it in the mixer

Joga Bonito is dead, unless you’re Sam Allardyce and have a slightly different concept of the term. Brazil started their game against Japan by trying to control midfield and work the ball into the box as you’d expect, but went down in the first half to this absolutely stunning solo goal by Kaishu Sano.

Struggling to break down Japan’s extremely compact defense, Carlo Ancelotti decided that his team just needed some more box presence, and introduced Endrick in place of Lucas Paqueta. While it took Brazil until the 95th minute to find the winner — via another substitute, Gabriel Martinelli — it’s very clear that they started playing better immediately upon adding another striker to the lineup.

While this was an entertaining and dramatic match to watch, and Brazil did ultimately get the job done, it did not inspire confidence in the Selecao for future fixtures. Casemiro’s leadership is clearly very important to the side — as is his set piece presence, as evidenced by the goal — but he had a tough day in midfield. Paqueta has yet to show his quality as well. I don’t know if Ancelotti has any answers to fix the Brazil midfield. —KM

Paraguay shocks the tournament as Germany’s terrible run continues

The famous philosopher Gary Lineker once said “Football is a simple game. Twenty-two men chase a ball for 90 minutes and at the end, the Germans always win.” It turns out such a saying didn’t apply to this iteration of the German national team, who were on the receiving end of one of the great World Cup upsets ever after losing in a penalty shootout to Paraguay.

If there was one stat to describe this match, it was Germany going 10 for 56 on crosses. It felt as if they were bereft of ideas against Paraguay’s stubborn low-block and resorted to low hanging fruit. They’re not the first, nor will be the last favorite who had to do this. Part of it was the lack of off the dribble verve from Germany’s wide players in this one. What makes this really surprising is this is the same Paraguay side which were beaten handedly by the United States less than three weeks ago.

Unlike the US match though, Paraguay didn’t have to deal with an early deficit to force them out of their shell. In fact, they were the ones who took the lead courtesy of a header from Julio Enciso in the 41st minute. He was essentially wide open a few seconds after the initial corner was cleared, clearly gestating for a pass and didn’t make any mistake once it got to him.

While Germany’s heavy crossing tactic was rough on the whole, it did create the equalizer from a driven delivery by Florian Wirtz towards Kai Havertz. The glancing header was placed far enough that Paraguay’s goalkeeper Orlando Gill couldn’t get a hand to it. From there, Germany had some chances they couldn’t convert so the match went into extra time. And then, there was the disallowed goal on Jonathan Tah’s header from a corner in the 101st minute due to goalkeeper interference.

I’m of two minds here on this one. While I definitely sympathize with not wanting set pieces in the tournament to devolve into what happened in the Premier League, I think Gill went down quite easily and sold the foul. On the other hand, I can’t muster up too much sympathy for a heavy favorite who previously couldn’t break the match open.

This encounter eventually went onto penalties, which was one of the wildest I can remember. Paraguay were up 3-2 and had two opportunities to clinch the upset with a successful spot-kick. Amazingly, Antonio Sanabria and Fabián Balbuena missed in succession to briefly give Germany hope once more. There ended up being one last twist in this story, as Jonathan Tah’s attempt went way over the crossbar before José Canale’s successful kick clinched the massive upset for Paraguay. It’s one of the World Cup’s most shocking results, and could lead to massive changes for Germany (Julian Nagelsmann out, Jürgen Klopp in?). For Paraguay, they reach the round of 16 for the first time since their quarterfinal run in 2010, awaiting the winner of France vs Sweden. —MM

Netherlands stay unbeaten and still get knocked out

At The Transfer Flow, we had the Netherlands on Fraud Watch coming into the World Cup, and we stuck to our guns despite an impressive-looking group stage campaign. Our decision has now been vindicated, as Oranje have been sent packing in the Round of 32.
But here’s the crazy part: the Netherlands have extended their men’s World Cup record unbeaten run to 16 games, having been eliminated on penalties in each of their last three appearances. Their last loss remains the 2010 final against Spain, in which they only went down in extra time. Their 2006 round of 16 elimination came in a match known as the Battle of Nuremberg as it featured a World Cup record four red cards, so the last time they lost a meaningful World Cup match that ended with all 22 on the pitch was all the way back in 1994.

Those stats are a product of the approach that has become synonymous with the Dutch national team at men’s World Cups over the last couple of decades, which was perhaps epitomised here. Ronald Koeman fielded four players who largely play centre-back for their clubs in addition to a wing-back in Denzel Dumfries, and sent on three others capable of playing centre-back with his substitutions.

The first half was a standoff. Morocco edged the shot count with the odd one in seven as both sides prioritised getting numbers behind the ball out of possession in a deeper block, particularly focusing on closing off central spaces. The Atlas Lions showed a bit more intent with the ball and were well on the front foot after half-time, showing some decent approach play through their fluid attack.

The Dutch threat mainly came on the break. Crysencio Summerville looked like their liveliest attacker all game with his forward runs off the right, and it was one such move that created the opener after a flick-on from substitute striker Wout Weghorst fed him. He lost his footing under pressure as he approached the box, but somehow managed to squirt the ball across to Cody Gakpo, who found the back of the net.

I’ll admit I thought the game was done then — the Dutch low block and Morocco’s lack of a recognised striker all pointed towards one likely result. The Atlas Lions didn’t register a shot from the 78th minute to the end of the 90, but equalised seconds into extra time when centre-back Issa Diop crashed the box in a Hail Mary play and emphatically headed home Chemsdine Talbi’s pinpoint cross.

Although it was low-event in terms of goalmouth action, the match was contested with good intensity for most of the 90. However, conditions certainly got to the players by extra time, as the only shot in the last half an hour was Soufiane Rahimi’s big chance. The quality of the penalties in the shoot-out was likely affected too, but in the end it would be hard to argue against the idea that the more deserving side won. —NS

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