How Brentford are Defying the Odds Once Again

There was ample skepticism from pundits and fans outside of the Brentford sphere heading into the 2025-26 season. When accounting for what occurred last summer, it wasn’t hard to see why. For one, after spending nearly a decade with the club, Thomas Frank departed for Tottenham. Key starters in Bryan Mbeumo, Yoanne Wissa, and Christian Nørgaard were sold over the summer, even though the money received was too good to pass up in the cases of Mbeumo and Wissa. 

As a result, the combination of a talent drain and the unknown of Keith Andrews moving from set-piece coach to the managerial position led to a consensus of 2025-26 being a step back for the Bees. ESPN placed them in 14th during their season preview. Meanwhile, we here at The Transfer Flow had them finishing 15th. While it’s not a rigorous exercise, The Athletic’s hope-o-meter had Brentford among the lowest before the season started. Only a lack of faith in promoted sides Sunderland, Leeds United, and Burnley posing a challenge to the established top 17 kept Brentford from truly dire preseason projections.

Looking back, all of that seems like a lifetime ago. With only seven matches remaining in the season, Brentford are currently in 7th place. Not only are they on pace for their best PL table placement ever, but they’re in prime position to qualify for European football for the first time next season. For a club that’s been in existence for 134 years, yet only got promoted to the Premier League in 2021-22, it would be an incredible accomplishment.

Speed and directness are the major tenets of what Brentford try to do when they’re trying to attack. According to Opta Analyst, they’re in the bottom four for passes per sequence, sequence time, and open-play sequences which originate from buildup. As well, MARKSTATS has them with the 5th lowest field tilt in the league. Taken together, it paints the picture of a team which tries to succeed through direct and quick play.

This begins in the instances when they’re trying to patiently build from the back. They’ll try a common rotation of the center-backs splitting wide, with a midfielder coming deep and occasionally forming a situational back three. Against lower level PL opponents, they’ve had some success at playing through opponents. It was the case during the first half versus Wolves in their recent 2-2 draw.

Otherwise, it’s common to see Brentford look to go long and bypass pressure. Fortunately for them, they have a striker in Igor Thiago who’s shown to be one of the league’s best when it comes to aerial duels and just being an overall nuisance versus opposing center-backs. No player in the PL has had more aerial duel attempts than his 246, and while the 38.6% success rate is not stellar, it’s comparable to other high-usage duelists like Igor Jesus and Dominic Calvert-Lewin. There’s a level of selflessness with how much Thiago is willing to scrap against the variety of center backs that the PL has to offer, and his impressive hold-up play helps bring teammates into play.

Brentford have scored multiple goals throughout the season which came from playing Route One-esque football. An example of this was their lone goal versus Aston Villa from their 1-0 victory back in August. Caoimhin Kelleher goes long towards the halfway line, and Thiago comes deeper to attempt a headed flick-on in behind for Dango Ouattara to run into for a breakaway and eventual goal on the rebound.

It’s not just Thiago who is the target for these long balls. In Ouattara and Kevin Schade, Brentford have two wingers who are above average in both volume and success rate for aerial wins. This gives their teammates even more license to try and go direct towards the front line, including zipped passes on the ground or low percentage attempts in the air. If the opposition does win the initial contest, the Bees are good at pushing up to try and win the second ball.

What makes them stand out compared to most in the league is what they try to do in these moments. Rather than recycle possession to slow down the tempo, they look to speed things up with immediate forward passes into the forward line. There are few units in the league who are as aggressive in trying to catch the opposition off guard following a ball recovery, which is reflected in them ranking third for percentage of forward passes via Opta Analyst.

Mikkel Damsgaard is the catalyst in these situations, always trying to feed the attackers when given the chance. Their matches can resemble games of Pong due to a lack of settled possession, but given the skillset of the squad, it’s to their advantage.

The end result is that Brentford get to live off of a ton of opportunities against a non-set defense. From Opta Analyst, they’re tied for seventh in direct attacks, and lead the league in both fast break opportunities and goals. Although they have the profiles to lean into being a heavy crossing side, it’s not needed given the volume of those fast attacks they generate. Thiago has benefitted quite a bit from the setup himself, using his movement and awareness to find himself in premium shooting positions in the box. An xG/shot of .184 from open play is quite impressive.

Out of possession, Brentford switches between settling in a mid to lower block versus being proactive with the press. Their pressing metrics don’t scream of a pressing juggernaut. According to Opta Analyst, they’re just inside the bottom half for starting distance and high turnovers. MARKSTATS has them seventh for opponent buildup percentage, and 10th for opponent possessions lost near their own goal.

Opportunistic is an apt word to describe how Brentford operate without the ball. Higher up, it’s primarily man-to-man marking with the press. When having to defend in a mid-block or deeper, it tends to be a 4-4-2 zonal shape, although it can occasionally morph into a 5-3-2 versus a higher caliber of opponent.

Compared to other defensive blocks in the league, theirs is one of the more compact. What helps their structure is the lack of passivity in the middle third, particularly along the flanks where the approach turns into man-marking and regularly winning the ball back. There are enough pressing runs towards the wide areas so that the opposition isn’t easily setting up shop in their own half, regularly forcing them back to try and build up once again. Although different in the structure, the end result is similar to how Crystal Palace operated earlier in the season with dictating the terms of engagement within the mid-block. Brentford have been able to limit the amount of good looks from their opponents. Per Opta Analyst, only Arsenal have given up a lower non-penalty xG/shot, and no one has a smaller proportion of shots conceded in the box than Brentford’s 62.5%.

Without the ball is where Damsgaard shines, providing ample value compared to others at his position. He combines a high-end revving motor with the awareness of knowing how to cut off different angles, whether it be when the team is defending choreographed goal kick routines or transitioning from a mid-block to man-to-man during a press. Even when the defensive structure can be on the ropes, he’ll put in a shift to try and knit it together.

In general though, Brentford are cohesive out of possession, including when trying to win the ball back immediately. Statsbomb has them 4th in total counterpressures and counterpressure regains, while below league average in counterpressures inside the opposition half, pointing to a selectivity with when they try to regain possession further up the pitch. Whether it be in their own half or the opposition’s, Brentford are good at using the touchline to trap and win the ball back.

To put it simply, what Brentford have accomplished this season is remarkable. A team that was predicted to struggle mightily this season due to the departing talent is instead shaping up to have their best performance yet in England's top flight. Their play style both caters to the strength of the squad at hand, and is taking advantage of the current tactical meta in English football. There’s also their customary dominance from set-pieces, which has been an annual boost to their overall underlyings. Although they’re only +3 in goal difference during dead-ball situations, Brentford rank third in both expected goals for and against according to Opta Analyst. Meanwhile, Statsbomb has them fourth and second, respectively. 

Just how high could Brentford finish in the standings? They’re currently on 46 points with a +4 goal difference, only three points behind fifth-place Liverpool (who sport a superior +8 goal difference). Opta Analyst has them projected to accumulate just under 56 points, most likely finishing in seventh place. Scout Lab’s own projection system tells a similar story. It’s likely due to having decent underlying numbers on the whole, but lower compared to Liverpool and sixth-place Chelsea. As well, three straight draws against Bournemouth, Wolves, and Leeds dampened any realistic chance of sneaking into the top five. Brentford’s remaining seven games features some manageable fixtures, but also tough ones in Manchester United, Manchester City, and Liverpool in the season finale.

Even if Brentford do finish outside of the European places, a mid-table finish would still be a great outcome for them. Five years in a row where they stayed up in the Premier League is the kind of victory which is a further seal of approval for the process. Qualifying for Europe would almost be the cherry on top for a club that’s annually punched above their weight. In what’s been a weird 2025-26 Premier League season for the division as a whole, Brentford have been able to take advantage once again and might be poised for a memorable finish.