How Middlesbrough turned a disaster season into a promotion push

Coming into the 2025-26 season, the general consensus for Middlesbrough was they’d be on the outside looking in for the top 6. It’s not hard to see why for multiple reasons. For one, the past few years have mostly been a struggle for them. There were worries about losing their brightest talent, Hayden Hackney, in the transfer market. It was also hard to account for the switch at the managerial position from Michael Carrick to Rob Edwards. 

Those worries washed away over the first few months of the season. Middlesbrough were 2nd in the league through 14 matches, above and beyond any realistic hopes the fanbase had. This was occurring while playing in a way you’d largely expect from an Edwards coached side. While their goal difference of +5 was unspectacular, suggesting they were closer to the chasing pack than the true automatic promotion contenders, there was still enough to like about that opening stretch. Almost immediately afterwards, Edwards left in a contentious manner for the vacant Wolves position.

Up stepped Kim Hellberg, who made his name in Swedish football with Hammarby. He helped guide them to back to back second place finishes in the country’s top division before taking the job. It was a risk bringing in someone whose game model was distinct from what Edwards brought to the table, especially in-season. The Championship is regarded as one of the most unforgiving divisions in Europe, so the wrong hire could spell doom.

By the end of January, things looked quite good. Middlesbrough remained in 2nd, with a goal difference of +18, a healthier mark compared to earlier in the season and was the 3rd highest in the league at that stage. There was a 5 point gap between themselves and 3rd place Hull City, who had a game in hand. For a club who hadn’t been in the Premier League since finishing 19th in the 2016-17 season, this was their best chance yet at returning to the big time. Almost suddenly after, their automatic promotion chase started to fall off. Middlesbrough have been a mid-table side since the beginning of February, and haven’t won since Mar 8 against Queens Park Rangers. 

So what made Middlesbrough successful in Hellberg’s opening months in charge? To put it plainly, their style of play in-possession has arguably been the most unique in the league, particularly once the ball gets to the middle third. In the beginning stages, it’s actually somewhat close to other possession heavy sides. They tend to have a 4+2 structure, although that can change to a back three. What is interesting is in these moments, the commitment to try and play through pressure after attracting the opposition press is unwavering. This can be from Luke Ayling trying to fizz passes between the lines to one of the floating #10’s, or the pivot combining to bypass man-to-man marking. The downside of such an approach is conceding the ball in dangerous areas for the opposition to take advantage of. Even still, Hellberg would contend the pluses would outweigh the minuses.

Public metrics for team style of play hint at how much Middlesbrough try to prioritize control in a league renowned for chaos. According to Opta Analyst, Only Southampton has a higher passes per sequence and longer sequence time. Meanwhile, nobody in the division has had more attacks originating from buildup. This kind of bravery in deeper areas isn’t bulletproof. In their 2-2 draw vs Swansea, the Swans had some success in the first half from creating high turnovers against Middlesbrough’s 4+2 setup in buildup. 

In the middle third is when Middlesbrough’s unique style comes to the forefront. A regular sight during their matches involves numerous players having already moved over to one side to interact with each other for potential 1-2’s and incorporating third man runs into space. Such close proximity also allows them to easily switch play to the far side fullback in stride towards the final third. The intricacy of those positional rotations can be outright impressive, finding the right moment afterwards to change the tempo and move with pace towards the final third. 

If there’s one player who helps knit this all together, it’s Hayden Hackney. Seasoned viewers of the Championship know him very well, with him emerging on the scene several years ago. He has his fingerprints in so many of Middlesbrough’s threatening passages of play. It can be him playing a simple forward pass into space for a nearby runner during wide combinations, or him escaping pressure with a purposeful carry over a few yards to quicken the tempo and set up a smartly weighted pass in behind. At this point, many would agree he’s proven more than enough to warrant a jump up to a bigger club this upcoming summer.  

When Middlesbrough are at their best, they can continue the fluidity from the middle third towards the opposition box. Different players can pop up in the wide areas to try and set up cut-backs, causing confusion for the opposition. Once in a while, you might even see the center-back appearing in the box to add further chaos. As a result, they flood the area at almost a staggering level. Via Scout Lab, no team has had more box touches than Middlesbrough, with the gap between them and 2nd place akin to 2nd place versus 14th. It’s allowed them to create the most cut-backs in the league since Hellberg has taken over.

Such a formula has been good enough for Middlesbrough to have the best attack in the league. Along with a formidable man-to-man press and a ball-oriented counterpress that’s amplified by their attacking compactness, you get a side with arguably the highest ceiling on a game to game basis. Both Opta and Statsbomb have them at the top for shot differential and expected goal differential during Hellberg’s tenure. You can see in the trendline as the season has gone on, they’ve steadily increased the expected goal count in their favor.

So what has happened over the past couple of months in which Middlesbrough’s form has declined? There’s a good argument to be made for it simply being bad luck. Since the beginning of February, nobody in the Championship has come close to their shot differential of 11.5 per match. Unsurprisingly, they lead the league in both non-penalty expected goal difference and open play expected goal difference. Over the past five matches, they’ve scored only four goals from a total of 109 shots, amounting to a conversion rate of 3.7%. It’s a laughable output which has unsurprisingly torpedoed their dream season. Even a couple more goals would have Middlesbrough in a considerably stronger position for the top 2.

If there’s one thing to take notice of over the past five matches, it’s been the increase in the proportion of blocked shots. Throughout the entire season, 35.4% of Middlesbrough’s shots were blocked, which was already leading the league. That number has ballooned to 47.7%. Some of it can be attributed to game state, with them having to chase matches for significant stretches versus Charlton and Swansea, along with a late flurry against Millwall.

At least qualitatively, both Swansea and Millwall were able to muck up enough of Middlesbrough’s attempts at playing through them during settled possession. As mentioned earlier, Swansea had some success with high turnover generation through either the counterpress or springing out of their mid-block. Millwall’s man-to-man setup was also sturdy enough to not concede a ton of clear-cut openings from structured play. Rather, several of Middlesbrough’s shooting opportunities came during more chaotic situations. There was questionable decision making in some of those moments, not making the extra pass to create a clearer shooting angle for a teammate.

It leaves Middlesbrough in the likely position of having to go through the playoffs if they want to achieve their dream of returning to the PL. Ipswich are 2nd and tied in points (72), but hold the superior goal difference along with two games in hand. Opta Analyst has their chances of promotion at 61.6%, making them strong favorites for automatic promotion. The urgency for whoever finishes 3rd to win the playoffs is arguably even higher than in previous seasons because the consensus is it’s a down year for the Championship. While losing in the playoffs would still constitute a successful season when compared to preseason expectations, an opening like this isn’t guaranteed in the near future and would make it tough to endure.

It’s undeniable that through 41 matches, Middlesbrough have had one of their best seasons in the last decade. Switching between coaches in-season to one with a different style of play was a brave choice, but the gamble has worked out in their favor, despite this recent tough patch in form. If you want to nitpick, you can say that despite the unlucky nature of converting below 4% of their shots into goals over the past few weeks, their controlled chaos in attack has veered ever so slightly towards helter skelter football. Middlesbrough’s A game has arguably been better than anyone else’s in the Championship. Gaining promotion to the Premier League will mean they’ve got to find that gear once more.

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