How to make £35m profit and lose nothing

Wolverhampton Wanderers are going to have a big Matheus Cunha-sized hole to fill in their attack following his £62m sale to Manchester United, and if there’s any truth to this rumour, I think they’ve found a great one.

Sky Sports are reporting that Wolves are interested in Nice forward Evann Guessand, who would cost them at least £25m, likely plus some added incentives. My first thought was “United should have just done that instead of paying so much for Cunha,” but then I remembered that’s not possible.

You might have noticed the big INEOS logo across Guessand’s chest. In pretty funny related news, Man United agreed with UEFA last year to not purchase any players from Nice through 2025 in order to satisfy multi-club ownership rules and allow both teams to participate in the Europa League.

Much like Cunha, Guessand is a versatile forward who doesn’t have a true position. He’s a bit of an all-around second striker who’s operated as a 10, a center forward, and as a winger. With his athleticism and dribbling skills, I think he’d fill Cunha’s boots nicely:

Guessand probably doesn’t have a single elite skill, but he gives his team a bit of everything. His total xG percentile ranking relative to other 10s and wingers might be a tad inflated due to him playing about a third of his games as a striker, but everything looks solid here.

The only minor concern I’d have is the lack of pressing output, but he clearly has the physical tools to improve that part of his game.

Guessand has a good variety of shots, and from good locations. We love to see diamonds and triangles, don’t we folks. He might have overperformed his xG a bit, but it wasn’t dramatic enough to raise a red flag. And from watching him, I think he’s a quality finisher who should finish at around his xG most of the time.

But the real “you love to see it” bit on Guessand is the key passes. Square balls, cutbacks and through balls into high value areas for 7 assists this season. Yes please.

If Wolves can get Guessand in the door for a fee in the neighborhood of £25m, I think it would be an excellent piece of business, and he’s got a perfect place to slot into their lineup. I wouldn’t be shocked if they sold him on for a profit in 2-3 years, then bought another under-the-radar early 20s versatile attacker. Rinse, repeat.

News and more transfer rumours

• Caoimhin Kelleher’s £18m move from Liverpool to Brentford has been finalized, and it’s a good one for all parties. Liverpool gets a solid fee for a guy who had a year left on his contract and would have been their No. 3 this year, Brentford get a good keeper at a reasonable price, and Kelleher gets to become a No. 1. Everybody wins.

• Lazio have executed their buy option for Nuno Tavares, who Arsenal eventually broke even on. Good for them.

• PSG and Real Madrid are apparently beating Premier League clubs to Franco Mastantuono. I think he’s very Lamela-like, not true superstar quality, but maybe you can pull this up and make fun of me in a couple years.

• Al-Hilal are trying to wrap up a Victor Osimhen deal before the Club World Cup, which would make me sad. Get your paper, I guess, but I really want to watch Osimhen in the Premier League.

• Napoli, AC Milan and Aston Villa are all reportedly interested in Jadon Sancho. I can’t imagine any of them are at the £10m wage he requested from Chelsea, though. He’ll need to take a pay cut or get Man United to eat some money.

• Barcelona have approached Liverpool for Luis Diaz, and apparently been told to do one. I wonder if they don’t think they’re wrapping up a Florian Wirtz deal anytime soon? Or do they just know dealing with Barca is a bunch of BS and they won’t get their money in a timely fashion?

• Speaking of Wirtz, Bayer Leverkusen might replace him with… Antony? Reuniting him with Erik ten Hag, who as we all know, consistently got the best possible performances out of the Brazilian. 🙄 

• Newcastle would like to sign Burnley goalkeeper James Trafford, who is very good. Anyone who needs a goalkeeper should be trying to sign Trafford.

• Here’s a silly rumour that 2 meter striker Nick Woltemade has Liverpool and Arsenal asking about him, and his price is €50m. Absolute nonsense agent yapping. Only wins 3 aerials p90 by the way, disappointing.

• Ultra mega dubious source alert, take with several grains of salt, but Arsenal are reportedly interested in signing Greek geenager Konstantinos Karetsas from Genk. First of all, elite name. Second of all, awesome passer. Was a 10 this year but with this kind of statistical profile, I’d expect him to become a deep-lying playmaker as he ages.

—KM

If you enjoyed this newsletter, we’d appreciate it if you would forward it to a friend. If you’re that friend, welcome! You can subscribe to The Transfer Flow here. We also have a podcast where we go in depth on transfer news and rumours every week. We’re on YouTube here, and you can subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify by searching for “The Transfer Flow Podcast.”