I still can't tell how good João Pedro is

As a whole body of work, João Pedro’s 14 non-penalty goals in the Premier League looks pretty good. He’s overperforming xG a bit, but not outrageously so — 10.93 xG isn’t bad at all, and most of his goals have come from very high quality chances.

But João Pedro’s goal-scoring form has come in big bursts, with a ton of his biggest chances coming against a small handful of teams. He’s also picked up the pace recently after a relatively disappointing start.

After his excellent Club World Cup and preseason, fans expected to see João Pedro get off to a quick start, and he was a popular FPL pick. Instead, his production up to the turn of the new year looked like this:

Respectable, but hardly setting the world on fire.

He’s been much more productive in recent weeks, and scored a hat trick against Aston Villa off nothing but premium quality shots. Here’s João Pedro’s shot map since January 1.

He’s not getting more total shots, but he’s getting in position for absolute tap-ins, and he’s not messing them up.

Good service and bad defending have been major components of those red and orange triangles — representing shots that were assisted by through balls — that you see in the graphic above. But I do think that João Pedro’s off-ball movement is an even bigger factor. Among the 24 Premier League strikers who have played 1200 or more minutes, he’s 2nd in line-breaking passes received.

But a lot of that includes dropping deep and making himself an option in early build-up, which isn’t surprising given that he was more of a 10 than a striker for Brighton last season. João Pedro is only 4th in LBPs received in the attacking half, and 7th in LBPs received in the final third.

João Pedro’s late movement into pockets of space and quality finishing are significant value adds to the team, but he’s not the kind of box presence that an Erling Haaland or Ollie Watkins is. And while his dropping deep might help progression quite a bit, Chelsea aren’t really getting any additional assisting value out of it — João Pedro has 3 assists from 2.93 xGA, which is solid but far from exceptional.

Compared to last season, João Pedro’s xG is way up, which you’d expect from him becoming a full-time striker on a better team. But it’s all coming from a small handful of high-value chances. He doesn’t have a particularly high volume of shots.

It’s not fair to João Pedro to compare him to former Chelsea players or hold his price tag over his head, since he’s got nothing to do with that. But it is fair to ask Chelsea what they’ve gotten out of shipping Nicolas Jackson to Bayern Munich on loan and spending £60m to bring João Pedro in. By standings, points per game and xG differential, the Blues have been basically the same team for 3 years in a row. Pam from the American version of The Office checked out this radar and is staring at the camera saying “they’re the same picture.”

While João Pedro has put the ball in the net a couple more times than Jackson did, I still don’t think Chelsea have found their permanent striker solution. If I’m running things at Stamford Bridge, I’m still looking at João Pedro as an excellent 12th man who can play either 10 or striker depending on injuries or unique tactical situations, and looking to add a true starting No. 9 in the summer.

I remain unconvinced by a starting striker for Chelsea who only gets 2 shots a game. João Pedro just has too many games where he doesn’t even sniff the box for me to trust him as a full time, first choice No. 9. But his highlights are so good that I also wouldn’t be surprised if he had the ability to improve his shot volume and morph into a bonafide 100 shot per season dude. I know this sounds like a weak hedge, but I have to be honest and admit that I’m not confident about what João Pedro has the potential to become.

If you enjoyed this newsletter, we’d appreciate it if you would forward it to a friend. If you’re that friend, welcome! You can subscribe to The Transfer Flow here. We also have a podcast where we go in depth on transfer news and rumours every week. We’re on YouTube here, and you can subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify by searching for “The Transfer Flow Podcast.” If you’re interested in football betting, check out this post on why we started Variance Betting.