Kobbie Mainoo's comeback has him back in the England conversation

From a fan’s perspective, there’s a joy in seeing academy players make the jump to the senior squad. Those feelings intensify when the prospects show promise right away. That was the case for Manchester United fans when Kobbie Mainoo emerged on the scene a couple of years ago. The 2023-24 season was a sizable disappointment for the club, finishing a distant 8th while playing some of the worst football Old Trafford had seen in many years. He was one of the few positives to take, with his ability to operate in tight spaces and leaving opponents in his dust providing a breath of fresh air.

What’s happened since has been fascinating. The hiring of Ruben Amorim did not lead to further improvements in Mainoo’s game. Rather, it could be argued as stagnation. This eventually led to what happened this season, where game time became severely limited due to issues concerning compatibility within the system. Mainoo himself seeked out a loan, and there were real worries of him eventually leaving the club on a permanent basis. 

The hiring of Michael Carrick to replace Amorim in January has seemingly given Mainoo a jolt to his young career. He’s back to being a regular starter for United, playing alongside Casemiro in a double pivot and producing some intriguing performances. After seemingly being out of contention for England’s 2026 World Cup squad, this latest stretch has him in the picture once again.

It’s hard to discuss Mainoo as a player without a brief mention of the environments he had played in since breaking into the first team. Erik ten Hag’s United became characterized by several failings both on and off the ball. There were massive gaps between the lines while defending, and combined with an inconsistent press, made it easier for opponents to bypass into space during settled play. On the ball, there was a heavy emphasis on direct possession, with Ten Hag mentioning how he wanted his team to be the best transition attack in Europe. United would often commit guys forward in what could be described as a 3-1-6, leading to issues if they couldn’t sustain heavy pressure in the final third. Their rest defense was too stretched out and could not block off access to the center, so opponents could have a field day with counters. One could make a strong argument that finishing 8th in 2023-24 was flattering, and ultimately, Ten Hag couldn’t fix those flaws and lost his job a couple of months into the following season.

Ten Hag’s firing cleared the way for United to sign Amorim, who had earned a reputation within Portuguese football as one of Europe’s up-and-coming managers. He initially tried to get United to play like his successful Sporting sides, utilizing a positional setup on the ball that focused more on overloads. It didn’t translate seamlessly with the players available to him. Out of possession, there was a desire to be proactive but it produced mixed results. In the final months of his tenure (especially after the loss to Grimsby Town), Amorim tried to change United into a greater vertical unit who looked to overload the middle following 2nd ball regains in the hopes of manufacturing fast attacks. Although questions were asked over the long-term sustainability of the approach, results and underlying performances improved in the short term. The ongoing problems with sterile passing versus low-blocks eventually came back to the forefront for United towards the end of Amorim’s reign.

Neither situation was conducive to a player like Mainoo, who wouldn’t be confused for being an athletically robust midfielder who provides ample value from how he operates in big spaces. This was particularly an issue under Amorim, who because of those reservations, didn’t think there was a pathway towards regular playing time. 

In comparison, the way United have tried to play under Carrick is more suitable to what Mainoo brings to the table. Central progression and quick combinations, along with positional fluidity among the frontline have been major themes of his short tenure to this point. There’s greater emphasis on trying to get the ball forward between the lines, which carries higher risk compared to how other PL clubs try to play. Within this setup, Mainoo has been comfortable. 

A strength of Mainoo since getting into the first team has been knitting the team together during different phases of play through the middle or near the flank. It’s not the flashiest or even most valuable thing a midfielder can do, but being technically secure and spatially aware is helpful for greasing the wheels of certain possessions. Playing in a less helter skelter framework allows this trait to be of greater emphasis. The spatial awareness also helps during combinations where Mainoo can find space as the free man to set up his next action, such as switching the play. 

During Mainoo’s early rise, a criticism from the analytics community was that although he was secure during possession, it didn’t translate into him consistently getting the ball forward. To my eyes, he’s been sharper in this area, noticing openings more often and being braver with his pass selection. This season, he sits 20th in deep completions per 90 and 30th in line breaking passes among PL players with at least 1200 minutes. The ranking for line breaking passes has improved compared to 23-24, when he placed 47th. While I think he’s gotten better, it’s fair to not know how much to untangle individual improvement from also operating in an environment where it’s been less arduous to complete penetrative passes. You still wouldn’t confuse him for being the team’s hub for ball progression. Even with the added impetus for forward passing, others in the lineup have a higher usage in this area. The end results on a team level have been decent, although it’s important to note that United have been the beneficiary of opponents committing three red cards since Carrick took over (Newcastle, Crystal Palace, Tottenham).

Of course, what still makes Mainoo an intriguing prospect is how elusive he can be versus incoming pressure. You don’t often see midfielders with his sudden shifts and changes of tempo to escape his marker on the turn. It’s his most resilient skill when up against high-end competition. While he’s not been able to gain access into the box off the dribble, he’s still produced numerous highlights from deeper areas this season. This visual from Scout Lab helps illustrate in particular how formidable of a progressive carrier Mainoo has been.

Out of possession, I’m not sure if anything has fundamentally changed for Mainoo as a pro. His role under Carrick has primarily been as the tip of the 4-4-2 diamond when United look to press. He holds his own when defending in small spaces. He’s also shown decent capacity in helping out with the press, and screening in a low block. The athleticism still remains a notable question, and could end up limiting his defensive ceiling.

About a year and a half ago, I did a YouTube video on Mainoo as he was embarking on his sophomore season. At the time, there were two schools of thought. On one side, you had people who were adamant that he was a future star due to ably playing in a PL midfield at such a young age, to go along with the flashes shown. On the other side, skeptics had concerns over whether he can do enough outside of his impressive escapability on the ball to provide top notch impact. I landed on Mainoo already being a decent player in the present, with a pathway towards stardom in the future (albeit probably a narrow one due to concerns highlighted by said skeptics).

As of now, I’m not sure if my opinion on Mainoo has radically altered. Perhaps I’m a bit higher on his forward passing these days, but playing for a manager (Carrick) whose style of play is more harmonious with what he provides also plays into the jump in passing quality. The other strengths and weaknesses shown in his debut campaign are still largely the same today, it’s just a matter of how much importance is placed on them.

All things considered, there’s enough to suggest that Mainoo is playing like a solid PL midfielder this season. The marriage between his own skill set, and how United are trying to play as a team, has been key to the jump in individual output. Being a solid player at 20 is not a small feat for someone his age, although it doesn’t quite carry the same impact as being an unambiguous star. Continuing to find a balance between knowing when to be safe in possession versus being more daring in moving the ball forward will be key to his progression, to go along with what kind of athlete he ends up reaching at his peak. Among the litany of Manchester United storylines this season, the resurgence of Kobbie Mainoo under Michael Carrick has been a positive one.

If you enjoyed this newsletter, we’d appreciate it if you would forward it to a friend. If you’re that friend, welcome! You can subscribe to The Transfer Flow here. We also have a podcast where we go in depth on transfer news and rumours every week. We’re on YouTube here, and you can subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify by searching for “The Transfer Flow Podcast.” If you’re interested in football betting, check out this post on why we started Variance Betting.