Following a triumphant return to the Premier League while playing extremely exciting football under Marcelo Bielsa, Leeds eventually crashed and burned in spectacular fashion. Bielsa was sacked after a poor run of results in the 2021-22 season, and his replacement Jesse Marsch went down swinging after refusing to adjust his aggressive pressing style. Javi Gracia and Sam Allardyce couldn’t save them.

Enter Daniel Farke, who previously guided Norwich to promotion. Leeds were unlucky to finish 3rd and fail to win promotion in his first year in charge, but they dominated the Championship last season, posting a +65 goal differential.

There might not have been a more entertaining team to watch in all of English football than Leeds last season. But as we know from both their last stint in the Premier League and Farke’s adventures with Norwich, changes will be required for Leeds to be successful in the top flight.

How good were they last year?

Just outrageously good. They overperformed their xG, but not by a ridiculous amount. They were just the best attacking and defensive team in the Championship, and honestly could have recorded more than 100 points. That the title race went down to the final day was quite silly.

Non-penalty xG

Goals

Scored

79.16

88

Conceded

23.28

23

And it was that way from the start of the season to the end, with almost no major hiccups. There was a slight dip in form immediately after Leeds secured automatic promotion, as you might expect. But besides that, they started the season strong and only got better as it went on until they won a place in the Premier League.

What is Daniel Farke’s deal?

Because of how good Leeds were relative to their competition last season, their radars will not tell you much about their style of play or Farke’s tactics, but I’m going to show them to you anyway because you paid us £10 to see them.

Leeds didn’t get a ton of counter-attacking shots or high xG per shot because they faced so many low blocks, but they still managed to create a ton of excellent chances. They have the hallmarks of a dominant side — short buildup out of the back, lots of shots off high pressing, low volume of crosses relative to other types of passes into the box.

Defensively, Leeds were actually less aggressive than you might expect. They certainly pressured a higher percentage of passes than the average team, but they weren’t the crazy pressing maniacs that you might remember from the Bielsa and Marsch teams. They had some more disciplined pressing triggers and shape.

Farke usually sets his team up in a 4-2-3-1 shape and a 10 who is a true attacking midfielder, though I wonder if that might change this season between the departure of some key attacking players and the move to a stronger league. Leeds seem to have more strong No. 8-type midfielders than anything else in their squad, and I expect they’ll make use of them with a single pivot formation more regularly than they did in the Championship.

Leeds also played with extremely aggressive overlapping fullbacks who got a ton of goal involvements for the team, and it’ll be interesting to see if they still do that in the top flight.

How has the squad changed?

Quite a bit, with some major pieces departing. I am skeptical about how Leeds has chosen to replace them thus far.

Players out: LB Junior Firpo, CM Joshua Guilavogui, CM Joe Rothwell, AM Manor Solomon, CB Maximilian Wöber, CM Charlie Crew

Rothwell and Solomon were both on loan, and have returned to their parent clubs. They were big impact players last season and will be missed. Firpo left on a free transfer, and has signed for Real Betis in Spain.

Wöber and Crew were bit-part players who have been loaned out, and Guilavogui also played a low number of minutes last season.

Players in: CB Jaka Bijol, FW Lukas Nmecha, CB Sebastian Bornauw, LB Gabriel Gudmundsson, CM Sean Longstaff, CM Anton Stach, GK Lucas Perri

The only one of these signings that I’m enthusiastic about is Anton Stach, who had an excellent season for Hoffenheim and would have been a good pickup for some of the more established Premier League clubs.

Everyone else was average at best for their previous club. In the cases of Nmecha and Gudmundsson, I think they are considerably worse than the players they are directly replacing.

Also, Jack Harrison is not a new player, but he’s returned from his loan at Everton and is expected to play a part in the first team.

xG + xA

OBV

Minutes Played

Out

34.15

25.2

8587

In

14.14

14.15

13685

Manor Solomon was the biggest source of production departed, but Rothwell and Firpo had good seasons too. Leeds have bought quite a few guys who were average in bigger leagues last season, and I can’t imagine their production picks up on a relegation-battling Prem team.

Star player they’re depending on: Willy Gnonto

Joël Piroe and Daniel James both had more goal involvements last season, but if Leeds are going to stay up in the Premier League, I think it’ll be because Willy Gnonto turned in some excellent performances.

While Piroe was a monster last season, he’s only going to be as good as his supply. James is highly dependant on his physical gifts, which I don’t think he’ll be able to exploit nearly as often against Premier League fullbacks. Gnonto, meanwhile, is an all-around talented attacker who’s shown the ability to play left, right and center. He’s a great dribbler and shooter, and has shown some promising improvement as a passer.

Leeds used Harrison on the left and Gnonto on the right in a recent preseason friendly, but it’s going to be very useful to Farke this year that both players are capable of playing on both sides. I like Gnonto more as a cut-in shooter than a crosser, and I hope he gets more time on the left wing than anywhere else in this campaign.

How much will they change their style?

While managing Norwich, Farke achieved a stunning record: 15 consecutive losses. It was the most not only in Premier League history, but in the recorded history of the English top flight. Farke was roundly criticised for his decision to play a high pressing style and high defensive line with players who were not suited to playing that way at the highest level. As mentioned up top, Leeds have also been here themselves, under Jesse Marsch.

The good news for this Leeds team is that their first choice center backs, Pascal Struijk and Joe Rodon, are probably quite a bit better than some of the CB partnerships that played in the Premier League last season. Stach will be a huge addition in front of them, and will allow Leeds to get away with some more ambitious pressing tactics without getting badly exposed in transition.

But my concern for Leeds and Farke will be how they can adapt in the event of injuries and suspensions. When the trio of Stach, Struijk and Rodon are available, they’ll have the spine to play a stylish and attacking brand of football. But I’m extremely concerned about their depth, and Farke’s ability to adjust tactically when he doesn’t have his best players.

Projected best XI and prediction

Pour one out for my boy Brenden Aaronson, who’s a lineup casualty here despite starting 43 times last season. I think Leeds is going to run dual 8s more often than the true 10, at least as they find their footing early in the Premier League season. I’m also guessing that Dan James gets relegated to sub duty, where his athleticism can shine as he takes advantage of tired legs.

The Leeds first XI is probably better than any other one that’s come up from the Championship in the last couple seasons, and half of my colleagues did vote for them to finish 17th or better. But on the average vote, they did get picked to go back down. I think it’s going to go down to the final day.

Prediction: 18th