Lennart Karl is Bayern Munich's best academy graduate in years

There’s always excitement in German football whenever a teenager breaks into Bayern Munich’s senior squad, and it’s easy to see why. They’ve had numerous star talents come through the club’s academy over the years, including the likes of Franz Beckenbauer, Philipp Lahm, Thomas Müller, and David Alaba. When healthy, Aleksandar Pavlovic and Jamal Musiala are examples of recent graduates who were able to carve out key roles. 

Another reason for the excitement is the reality of how difficult it is for youth players to break into superclubs. This is especially true during the part of the club’s cycle when they’re competing at the highest level. Bayern are no exception to this, and their dominance in the Bundesliga means their down period is less compared to other giants in Europe. As a result, the threshold for prospects to get regular playing time with them is very high.

So it’s not surprising to see how much buzz there’s been this season concerning the rapid ascension of Lennart Karl. It began with his dominance in multiple youth groups, which got him promoted to the senior squad incredibly early. He became the club’s youngest Champions League goalscorer with his goal versus Club Brugge in late October. Despite this being his age 17 season, his 6 goals and assists in the Bundesliga has him ranked in the top 40, with per 90 rate stats having him considerably higher.

Arguably the most impressive trait from Karl so far has been how he operates without the ball. Bayern have molded their attack to have a high level of fluidity under Vincent Kompany, with the forwards in particular having license to roam. Harry Kane is the ultimate example, constantly dropping deep despite being their starting striker, making it tough for opponents to track him. Such a configuration helps open up space for others to run into. As well, they’ve been able to manufacture direct attacks through an in-possession approach which doesn’t hinge quite as much on final third territorial dominance.

In Karl’s case, he’s been able to benefit from the gravity Kane and others possess during different phases of play, including trying to find space in behind with darting runs. When Bayern are up against low-blocks, he’ll either flood the halfspace or be situated out wide. Near the flank, he’s constantly looking to combine with teammates to get into the box. Within the interior, he’s been able to benefit as the free man during quick hitting sequences to attack the box through short dashes.

A couple other bright spots with him so far have been his willingness to attack the middle or far post for potential high value chances. His goal versus Arsenal was an example of him crashing the box like a striker. As well, he can create space for others with subtle movement vs packed defenses in the final third, which is helpful given the limited real estate. Combine that with some easy opportunities from fast attacks, and you get a shot map containing both strong volume and shot quality.

As a dribbler, Karl certainly has had some bright moments. You can see the jitterbug-esque dribbling and progressive carrying in his repertoire, leveraging his low center of gravity across the pitch. This includes being able to shield the ball effectively. When he does try to take on his marker in wide areas, he is much more likely to cut inside versus getting to the byline. It can mean that he’ll dribble inwards towards traffic and launch a heavily contested shot or lose the ball altogether to end the sequence. While there have been impressive bursts from him in 1v1s, he doesn’t quite have the 2nd or 3rd step to consistently leave his marker in the dust. Instead, he also utilizes those quick reactive dribbles with 1-2 touches to evade trailing legs from defenders or slipping through with a nutmeg. At this stage of his career, Karl’s final third impact is heavily reliant on him attacking the box himself. 

One area that will be interesting to monitor with Karl going forward is his playmaking. In theory, he looks the part of someone who can rack up a bunch of chances in the future. He often receives with little wasted motion, even under duress. There’s an elusiveness to him when he’s playing at or near his best, with sharp turns to create space for himself. It has led to some defense splitting passes, although his occasional tunnel vision when on the move can be a hindrance. Short-range crossing in or around the box could become a weapon for him. He’s currently attempting 1.88 per 90 at a success rate of 35.3%, according to Opta. The volume isn’t terribly high, but there have been several threatening deliveries towards the far post. That kind of creation could become an added boost going forward. He’s also tried some weaker foot passes from the right side of the box, albeit the accuracy has left something to be desired. 

The debut season Karl is producing would be impressive for any youngster, let alone someone who’s still 17 until later this month. The goals and assist numbers are there, and it’s not as if those have been flukes. His subtle off-ball movement when opponents park the bus has helped create space for himself and others. He can also play off of his teammates to get into big spaces and juice his production. The playmaking has been fine but arguably unspectacular on the whole. That said, even with the benefit of playing for a superclub and the small sample size, Karl has performed at a strong level so far.

As mentioned earlier, Karl’s passing will be key to just how big of a star he can become. The building blocks are there for him to get to a strong level, including not dwelling on the ball too much when he doesn't decide to cut inside into congestion. If the crossing becomes a genuine threat he can utilize, it’ll help him evolve into a more well-rounded threat. He’d be able to blend his dribbling and crossing prowess to become a viable creator on the flanks. There could also be some easy money for Karl as a playmaker with a greater willingness to hit teammates who are making underlapping runs, as illustrated with the visual below from Pranav.

It hasn’t been totally seamless for Karl this season. He’s hit a cold stretch in form in recent weeks, highlighted by a bit of showboating gone wrong vs Hoffenheim. As well, his effusive comments concerning Real Madrid certainly didn’t go down well with the Bayern supporters. As annoying as it may be, that’s the kind of mistake which can happen from a teenager in the spotlight. It’s also not surprising for someone so young to have a downturn in performance during their rookie year, possibly due to fatigue and other factors too. In North America, such a phenomenon has been deemed the “rookie wall”.

All that said, Karl is in the midst of a very promising rookie season. 17 year olds rarely make the jump to senior football and perform at a strong level. It’s not quite as impressive as what Lamine Yamal did last season with Barcelona, but you have to feel hopeful about Karl's future. He’s certainly benefitted from playing alongside many supremely talented teammates, but ably performing multiple roles through quick ball progression and sly off-ball movement has already made him a net-positive contributor. The next few years will be defined by how good his chance creation reaches, along with what he can provide out of possession (there’ve been some rough moments). With further growth to his game, Lennart Karl could become Bayern Munich’s next homegrown star.

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