Liverpool play well(?) and lose. Arsenal play well and win.

Variance Betting was +6 this weekend (+1.5 on EPL, +4.5 in the Championship), continuing a very hot streak to start the season. Last season at this time I was wondering why I was so bad at this whole betting thing. This season, I look like a wizard. (Seriously, people have started to send me Harry Potter memes in emails and DMs.) The answer, as always, is somewhere in between.

This isn’t the usual garbage gambling tout stuff you see everywhere else, this is a professional bettor telling you his plays week after week, with a huge track record and profits behind it. Confused? I explained the why of it here.

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Now on with the show!

Fulham 0 -1 Arsenal
I read the fan recaps of this in various stripes and it said “Arsenal were boring. They scored off a set piece” This is one of those spots where the narrative is fairly clearly wrong for once.

In the same way that I got in trouble with Liverpool fans for pointing out their underlying numbers were dangerously low despite the five-match winning streak to start the season, I feel the need to come to Arsenal’s defense here:

They are really fucking good.

This was over two expected goals (StatsBomb numbers), away, against a defense that rarely gives up big numbers at Craven Cottage. Man City did this to Fulham on the last match of last season (doesn’t really count), but that’s about it.

The only teams within spitting distance of Arsenal’s expected goals numbers this season are City and Crystal Palace(?!). That said… they aren’t Bayern numbers. They aren’t Centurion numbers. They are more like Liverpool’s xGD from last season, or uh… Arsenal’s numbers from 2023-24, and we know how that turned out.

Cautious optimism is the mood check, North London fans… and nothing more than that. Acts like you’ve been here before and leave the hope to the Man United fans.

Meanwhile, in Liverpool 😬.

Liverpool 1 - 2 Manchester United
It’s not all doom and gloom. 19 shots to 12 for Liverpool. 2.33 xG to 1.58. But there were score effects - Mbuemo’s goal basically opened the match for United. Liverpool created two big chances in the entire match and those happened very late on.

United dropped WAY too deep in the second half and Liverpool bombarded Senne - the posts helped a bit too. I don’t see this result as a catastrophe, but losing four matches in a row certainly has fans around Anfield throwing their hands in the air. And it has ENDLESS online tacticos spewing opinions for what is currently wrong with Liverpool’s setup/squad/execution/summer recruitment.

United played well. They largely limited Liverpool to shots from range or at poor angles. Then the Slabhead goal off the second phase of a corner to win it was just funny.

I love funny football.

Thankfully, there’s midweek Champions League to distract everyone from the very loud content windmills.

Crystal Palace 3 - 3 Bournemouth
I admit I sometimes get excited about weird things - if we’re being honest, it’s kind of the story of my life and my career. And I was DEFINITELY excited to see what the Palace social media team did with the highlights from an utterly insane match at the weekend.

PALACE PUT UP 4.25 EXPECTED GOALS! They have a social media team that LOOOVES wasting precious time on intros and outros - how would they fit crazy match events into a three-minute package?

They delivered a 2:15 package. Total. Ten seconds of intro. Six seconds of outro. AND NO EXTENDED HIGHLIGHTS PACKAGE!!! Staggering work.

(Putting my behind-the-scenes hat on, I am starting to suspect the social media team may have budget issues at Selhurst Park, not unlike the rest of the football team. And Bournemouth (who are well-run almost across the board) produced Extended Highlights, so dig in there if you want more.)

What about the match? Oh, right! Bournemouth went 2-nil up off an early corner and then a lovely strike, both from Eli Kroupi. Mateta scored and passed a VAR review to make it 1-2 home team. Then Mateta pushed home the equaliser on the goal line five minutes later to make it 2-2. Simples, right?

Ryan Christie put home what looked like the winner in the 89th minute off a Marcus Tavernier cutback, but Palace got a penalty off a takedown on Marc Guehi during a corner in the 95th, which Mateta converted for his hattrick. Finally, Mateta MISSED A 1v1 in front of the keeper in the 97th (27% chance according to SB) that would have given Palace the win.

Mateta had ELEVEN shots by himself in the match. And Bournemouth are a good football team!

So yeah, 3-3.

I DID warn about the draw likelihood between these two teams in the Variance Betting writeup. Just sayin’.

Nottingham Forest 0 - 3 Chelsea
If you watch the highlights of this one, you might think Chelsea managed to escape what could have been a much more awkward away result than desired… and you would be right. The most likely match result was 2-1 to Forest, but finishing was not a skill on display for the red team on Saturday. Chalk it up to inevitable and overdue Chris Wood regression to the mean and move on.

I don’t think we need to dignify the Ange experiment with any real coverage. Dyche as a (rumoured) replacement is both sensible and amusing, so what’s not to love? Forest should be too talented to go down with even vaguely sensible management and results.

Chelsea are in fifth, two points out of second, with numbers that are basically league average, partly because they are forced to play their sixth-string centreback. I have concerns. Everyone has concerns.

Manchester City 2 - 0 Everton
“What would Everton look like without Jack Grealish?” was the question at hand entering the match. Minus a YOOGE chance to Beto in the 14th minute that just needed a tiny bit more behind it to deflect into an open goal, the answer was “toothless.”

Haaland scored two (again), City had a great defensive performance, and they walked this home comfortably. Haaland’s awareness in the box is crazy - he’s clearly seeing the game in slow motion and scoring in slightly weird ways for a trad centre forward. He’s like Tom Cruise in Maverick, coming at defenses out of the sun, at weird angles, in their blind spots… underneath them. It all works.

Brighton 2 - 1 Newcastle
It pains me to put a match where Danny Welbeck scored two goals this low in the running order, but it was a busy, eventful weekend!

Brighton’s first came from a great turn between the lines by Rutter, a throughball on the deck in flight, and then a little dink over the keeper from Welbz. Chef’s kiss.

Newcastle made it 1-1 from a lovely little redirect by Woltemade. He’s settling in nicely and making lots of fans on Tyneside.

But Brighton went back in front seven minutes later. Ayari delivered a gorgeous throughball to a running Mats Wieffer (playing right back?). A slide tackle knocked it away from him, but straight to Welbeck, who slotted it home from the top of the box.

There were a lot of shots in this one, but very few were dangerous, and Brighton walked away with a slightly fortunate win.

Man United are 9th. Brighton are 10th. Villa are 11th. Newcastle are 13th. This is fun!

Spurs 1 - 2 Aston Villa
I have been wondering when the gap between results and underlying numbers might begin to bite Spurs a little, and minus Bodo, that looks to be now.

Spurs’ goal came off a wide free kick (set piece!). The Rogers strike for Villa was a beautiful knuckler that came from a short backlift and was hit extremely hard. Then Buendia curled one into the far corner when no one at Spurs decided to really step up and stop the shot. No bueno, si Buendia.

This match was extremely tight, yet Villa scored two goals on .41 xG.

Unai Emery rides again!

Sunderland 2 - 0 Wolves
Kim flagged Sunderland on Friday (and I bet on them as well). I love it when a plan comes together.

Sunderland took the lead on a nice vertical move inside the box that put Mukiele too close to miss. Then Sunderland did a good job at limiting Wolves to low-value shots the rest of the match. The second goal to make things safe was an own goal during a Sunderland counterattack.

Three points to the Black Cats and a pretty decent chance to stay up now based off early results.

Burnley 2 - 0 Leeds
I have been Burnley’d. Again. As have Leeds. When will it end?

(Big score effects in this one, but also… scoring 2 from 4 total shots trololol. Who needs James Trafford?)

—TK

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