This time last year, I went full doomer on Manchester United Football Club. I claimed that they were “stuck in a spiral of never-ending sameness,” argued that Bryan Mbeumo and Matheus Cunha were hardly the signings United needed, and spent a lot of time thinking about what Ruben Amorim had to do.

Then, something magical happened. Benjamin Sesko and Senne Lammens were bought; Alejandro Garnacho, Rasmus Hojlund, and Antony were all eventually sold; Amorim, in January, was fired; Michael Carrick was hired and went on to be nominated for Premier League Manager of the Season. Under Carrick, United averaged 2.3 points per game and went from 6th to comfortably 3rd.

Three players, all new signings, ended the season with ten or more goals. Bruno Fernandes broke the assist record and won the Premier League Player of the Season award. Lammens was the first Manchester United goalkeeper to be actually good in several years. Kobbie Mainoo started playing again. Bit by bit, peace was restored to the universe. And, finally, United became fun to watch again.

The vibes were good enough that I began to wonder if Old Trafford’s leaks were magically healing themselves, too. Are things perfect? No, but what a difference a year can make.

Take a look at this chart. What do you see?

At first glance, one main thought rises to the surface: Manchester United appeared to get better right before Amorim was fired, and then got worse after Carrick was hired. There are several qualifiers to this statement, however. First, let’s consider the month before Amorim was fired — his best stretch of the season as judged by expected goal difference (xGD). In seven matches, Amorim’s United drew four, lost one, and won two, with a total goal difference of +3 and an xGD of 6.54. However, in that time, the Reds played all but one game against teams in the bottom half of the table, including twice against Wolves, who ranked dead last. Amorim then went on a tirade about being a “manager” and not a “head coach,” which was funny, because he was, in fact, hired as a head coach, called on Jason Wilcox to “do his job,” and said he would not quit his position. He was sacked the following day.

When Carrick came in, the job was simple: make United not suck. Like every United manager before him, much of that job had to do with vibes. Appease the fans, appease the players, appease the owners, and appease the looming presence of Sir Alex Ferguson hovering over the Stretford End. For the most part, Carrick did this job well. He stood on the sideline and exuded a calmness that Amorim lacked. He broke down some of the rigid walls the previous manager had put in place. He allowed the team a little more freedom. And, between mid-January and the end of the season, Manchester United became the best team in the Premier League. Towards the end, as United essentially locked up third place, performances slipped — the lines converged.

Overall, United ended the season having deserved their spot in the table. The team ranked third in goal difference and third in non-penalty xGD. They ranked highly in set piece xG and boasted an effective press. In the 2024/25 season, United were at or below the league average in nearly every stat. This past year, they ranked above average in nearly every category.

United’s defending wasn’t anything to write home about, but they suffered from multiple injuries on the backline. De Ligt played just 13 matches while Lisandro Martinez played 18 matches. Even Harry Maguire missed games through injury, logging just 23 appearances. There was one man, however, who escaped unscathed: Luke Shaw. At 31 years old, Shaw started all 38 Premier League matches for the first time in his career and led the team in minutes, contributing a huge amount to United’s success.

A key part of the club’s success after Carrick’s appointment was consistency — Shaw consistently started on the left, Mainoo started in 16 of 17 matches, Fernandes continued to consistently provide assists, United could count on their front three to consistently score goals, and Lammens was consistent in goal. For much of the club’s recent history, results, players, and managers have been detrimentally inconsistent. United’s second half of the season went in direct opposition to that precedent. The Reds were consistent, and because of that, they excelled.

Perhaps before everything else, Michael Carrick is a Manchester United player. It is no secret that “The United Way” is perhaps more important to the club’s supporters than real success — every time a search for a new manager is commenced (which occurs every few months these days, it seems), there is unending talk of “attractive, attacking football,” “Manchester spirit,” and a return to “the way it used to be.”

Ever since Ferguson, managers have seemingly been judged by three things: trophies, academy graduates, and style of play. Carrick, before he even stepped through the door, appeared to satisfy all three conditions. Even if he’d failed to procure a trophy in his two seasons at Middlesborough, he’d won plenty as a player at United. Carrick knew the youth setup, too, so surely he would be committed to offering opportunities to academy graduates. Lastly, it didn’t matter that Carrick’s Middlesborough was one of the slowest-playing teams in the Championship, he was a former United player, so surely he’d know how to implement The United Way. What I mean by all this is, Michael Carrick appeared as the platonic ideal of a Manchester United manager. His history as a coach did not necessarily back up this image, but that didn’t matter, because the role he filled has always been more about image than substance.

That being said, for the most part, Carrick began the process of delivering on these three points. As previously mentioned, United were the best team in the league under his tenure. Carrick’s emphasis on reintegrating Kobbie Mainoo did not go unnoticed, and the 21-year-old was one of United’s best players after returning to the squad. Carrick even began to implement a more direct and aggressive style of play that deviates from trends elsewhere in Europe. Carrick, so far, seems to be doing what he was hired to do.

There are worries, however. Under Amorim, United significantly underperformed their non-penalty xGD relative to their non-penalty GD. Under Carrick, that flipped, and United significantly overperformed, with an xGD per game of 0.26 and a GD per game of 0.94. That difference is massive.

To give you an idea, that non-penalty xGD would have ranked United 6th last season, whereas the xGD would have placed them third, just a few decimal points behind City and Arsenal. Overperformance is notoriously unreliable, which creates uncertainty about how United will continue to perform under Carrick. United’s underlying xG numbers were basically the same under each of their two managers last season.

As Mohamed pointed out when Carrick was given the permanent position, this could end up being Ole 2.0. Recruitment seems to be improving, which should help Carrick’s case, but things feel immensely precarious. Image may buy Carrick time, but what will he do with it?

Midfield has been significantly overhauled.

Players out: Tyrell Malacia, Casemiro, Altay Bayındır (loan)

Malacia and Bayindir were backups who shouldn’t be missed, but Casemiro is obviously a significant loss. Between his age and high wage, it was time for him to move on, but he had a surprise resurgence last year to end his United career on a high note.

Players in: Andrey Santos, Youri Tielemans, Karl Darlow, Marcus Rashford (loan return)

As far as United signings go, these are fairly good ones. Santos and Tielemans immediately add depth to a midfield core that consisted of just Mason Mount and Kobbie Mainoo after Casemiro left for Miami and Manuel Ugarte suffered a brutal injury at the World Cup.

At 22, Santos enters Carrington with mixed expectations. Though he’s shown he can be a progressive, mobile midfielder who contributes well in buildup play, he managed just 1255 Premier League minutes last season and might not immediately slot into the starting lineup.

Tielemans, on the other hand, will provide more attacking threat from midfield and alleviate some of Bruno Fernandes’ creative load.

Darlow fills a backup goalkeeper spot, and United will be hoping he doesn’t have to make an appearance.

Here’s a quick summary of what’s been gained and lost so far:

There are rumors that United could make a third midfield signing, and given the respective skillsets of Tielemans and Santos, it wouldn’t be a bad idea. United still — theoretically — need someone that can be active and aggressive out of possession, winning the ball back in transition and dominating in the air. None of United’s current midfield options fully fulfill that role, but there aren’t a whole lot of great alternatives in the market, either. Carlos Baleba could be that player for United, but his fee is likely far higher than what the Red Devils will want to pay, especially with the recent transfer fees paid for Eliot Anderson and Mateus Fernandes.

It should be no surprise that Bruno Fernandes was far and away United’s best player last season. At 31, the Portuguese midfielder broke the all-time Premier League assists record and won the Premier League Player of the Season award all in one fell swoop. Last year, I wondered how many more years Bruno’s legs could last, but there seemed to be little signs of aging for the United captain last season.

For a guy that logs such high xA and Pass OBV per 90, Bruno’s turnover rate was surprisingly low at just 1.38 per 90. He may not have excelled in the goalscoring department, but that says two things about Fernandes and this United team:

a) Bruno didn’t need to do it all; other players scored plenty of goals.

b) Bruno was able to spend more of his time creating chances, which is what he’s best at, and this reduction in overall attacking responsibilities helped preserve his energy in games.

These are both good things for the club. The day where Fernandes becomes past his prime will come, but for now, he remains United’s best player, and as time passes, reducing his responsibilities bit by bit — by signing players like Cunha and Tielemans — is the smart thing to do.

United have done an excellent job in the last year of clearing out players whose future at the club was non-existent. Most of these players weren’t covered in the transfers section because they didn’t play any minutes for the club last season, but they’re still worth mentioning.

A hallmark of United’s disastrous transfer strategy in the last decade has been their inability to move on from high-earning players. The cycle goes like this: a manager joins, makes 3-4 big money transfers, then gets fired two years later. When the new manager comes in, the bench the underperforming stars, but those players remain on the roster, commanding high wages for at least another two seasons. Rinse and repeat. In the last year, however, United have done a good job of trying to avoid this roster bloat — since last summer, Garnacho and Antony have both left on permanent transfers, Hojlund, Jadon Sancho, and Andre Onana were loaned for the full season, and Hojlund’s purchase option was exercised. Sancho has left on a free, Onana’s loan has been renewed, and Casemiro and Tyrell Malacia have also left on frees, with Bayindir being sent on loan to Celta Vigo. If you’re keeping track, that really only leaves Marcus Rashford as the last remaining player whose future at the club is uncertain.

Reports suggest he could be reintegrated back into the squad by Carrick, and this an area where the manager’s player experience at the club could come in handy. Rashford struggled under Amorim, but there’s no guarantee it will be the same under Carrick. If the manager is able to get the most out of the 28-year-old, this past year at Carrington will have to be considered one of the most effective squad overhauls in the club’s recent history.

Leny Yoro has seen a good amount of minutes at right back in preseason and I wouldn’t be surprised if Carrick starts him there for the beginning of the season. Lisandro Martinez and Benjamin Sesko are both working to return from injury, but are expected to be fit by the club’s first Premier League match against Hull City. The only wildcard would be the aforementioned Marcus Rashford, but given the general uncertainty around his situation, I chose to leave him out.

Things aren’t so bad. There’s plenty to be wary of, but a repeat of this season doesn’t seem entirely out of the question.

Transfer Flow aggregate prediction: 5th
My prediction: 3rd

Catalina Bush is a freelance writer and data analyst. She contributes regularly to Kickback and American Soccer Analysis, among others. You can find her on Bluesky.

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