Marc Guehi transfer reinvigorates the Premier League title race

Injuries to the entire Manchester City center back corps have caused some movement in the long-running Marc Guehi saga. Fabrizio Romano has given it the Here We Go, and Guehi looks set to move from Crystal Palace to City for about £20m.

John Stones is expected back soon for City, but Ruban Dias might be out for another 4-6 weeks, while Josko Gvardiol may not play again this season. City have drawn 3 games in a row while dealing with this center back injury crisis, falling 6 points behind Arsenal in the title race. They needed a new center back to remain competitive, and they’ve probably picked up the best one on the market.

Center backs are difficult to measure with event data in general. Ones that are not aerial monsters or part of teams that have tons of possession generally do not show their quality in traditional stats. But despite this, Guehi manages to look like a very well-rounded player. His numbers don’t scream “Superstar,” but they do paint a pretty clear picture of a guy who doesn’t have any red flags.

While City could have theoretically acquired Guehi for no transfer fee in the summer, £20m feels like a reasonable price to pay in order to 1. address an immediate injury crisis, 2. avoid an open bidding war with other teams, and 3. avoid paying the massive signing-on and agent fees that often come with “free” transfers.

Failing to lock this deal up in the summer is looking like a bit of an own goal from Liverpool, and I don’t think City are going to regret this signing one bit.

On the midweek podcast, the boys talked manager madness. Real Madrid was the major focus, with no one having a good idea yet about the right man to replace Xabi Alonso. They also get into what Michael Carrick might do with Man United.

On Patreon, they get into a more detailed discussion about some of the hottest managers in what is going to be a wild summer market. Sebastian Hoeneß, Andoni Iraola and Cesc Fàbregas are going to be the names you hear a lot about around big jobs. If you subscribe to our Patreon, you get a bonus episode every week, plus the behind the scenes B-roll banter from after the recordings.

Over on Variance Betting, Ted has 4 bets on the Premier League this weekend and 6 on the Championship. You might be surprised to learn he’s betting against both City and Arsenal this weekend. That might sound nuts, but VB is up +19.5 units so far this season. For all the picks and deeper explanations of why we’re making those bets every week, you can subscribe to Variance Betting here.

The FPL corner

One of the most transferred players in FPL this week has been Bruno Guimaraes, who’s having an excellent season for Newcastle. On first glance, this looks pretty sensible. He’s 3rd in FPL points among midfielders this season, and he’s genuinely been one of the best all-around CMs in the Premier League. I don’t have a negative thing to say about him.

But from a pure FPL perspective, I don’t think he’s likely to keep up this kind of scoring pace. He has 7 non-penalty goals this season from 3.24 xG, having ripped some absolute bangers. He does take some penalties and set pieces, but is not the set in stone primary taker for either.

If you’re looking for similarly priced or cheaper alternatives, I’ve got an interesting one that I have not seen from any of the big FPL content creators or analytics platforms. Since December 1, the midfielder (in FPL terms) with the most xG + xA per 90 is Brentford winger Kevin Schade. He’s on a crazy hot streak, but he’s not overperforming his underlying numbers at all.

However, Schade is playing away to Chelsea this week, so you might want to wait a week to make that move, or use a wildcard. As the homies at Solio point out, Liverpool players are probably the route to go if you are doing the wildcard thing this week. Home vs. Burnley is theoretically the best fixture there is for racking up points. But Chelsea also have sneaky good fixtures over the next 5, if you are a Liam Rosenior believer.

We hit one big FPL topic on Fridays most weeks, but if you’d like more comprehensive info from injury reports and press conferences, you should subscribe to LazyFPL.

Games we’re watching

If you’d like to know where to watch these games in your country, you can find listings at LiveSoccerTV. No standout fixture in Serie A this week, AFCON takes its place.

PSG vs. Lille — Hey, did you know PSG are not currently first in Ligue 1? More on that from Moe next week. This is the most interesting game on this Friday.

Manchester United vs. Manchester City — Shoutout to the people on the west coast of the United States who will be drinking beer at 4:30 a.m. this Saturday. United have an interim manager and City have no center backs so this might get weird.

Real Betis vs. Villarreal — Perhaps the two most entertaining teams in La Liga square off.

RB Leipzig vs. Bayern Munich — There’s been no sign that anyone can challenge Bayern this year, but this is theoretically a big game.

Senegal vs. Morocco — I think the AFCON final has given us the two best teams in the deepest tournament we’ve ever seen on the continent. A+ so far. Highly recommend watching this game on Sunday.

Stuff we’re reading

Catalina Bush at The Guardian has been enjoying Amad Diallo’s performance at Africa Cup of Nations and wonders what it’ll mean for Manchester United when he returns.

Bradley Cunningham at Total Football Analysis has a preview of the Africa Cup of Nations final.

Josh Bland at Against The Run Of Play broke down the biggest FA Cup upset of all time, Macclesfield’s win over Crystal Palace.

Ali Tweedale at Opta Analyst has declared Harry Wilson the king of long-range bangers.

Michael Cox at The Athletic does not like the things Arsene Wenger has to say about potential rule changes.

Bill Connelly at ESPN ranks the 50 best transfers in Premier League history. Nos. 1 and 2 are obviously correct, but I think 3-11 could go in just about any order.

Ed Maylon and Matt Hughes at FootBiz wonder where Gareth Southgate might end up next, given his comments about being a capital-m Manager rather than a head coach who reports to a director of football.

Theo Lloyd-Hughes at The Cutback details what Sam Coffey will bring to Manchester City after her move from Portland Thorns.

Lucas Morefield at American Soccer Analysis developed an experimental metric for measuring goalkeeper value for money in MLS, which could lead to some interesting further research on other leagues and how much it makes sense to pay for a top keeper.

If you enjoyed this newsletter, we’d appreciate it if you would forward it to a friend. If you’re that friend, welcome! You can subscribe to The Transfer Flow here. We also have a podcast where we go in depth on transfer news and rumours every week. We’re on YouTube here, and you can subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify by searching for “The Transfer Flow Podcast.” If you’re interested in football betting, check out this post on why we started Variance Betting.