Meet Atalanta's new shot monster

5.06

That is the amount of shots per 90 minutes which Nikola Krstović has taken to start the 2025-26 season, according to FBref. Among qualified players in Europe’s big 5 leagues, only four have taken more shots than the Montenegrin forward:

• Lamine Yamal (5.64)

• Said El Mala (5.39)

• Gift Orban (5.17)

• Pere Milla (5.11)

Krstović isn’t a major name (at least for now) in European football. Unless you’re an avid watcher of Serie A and/or a data nerd, this might be the first you’re hearing of him. His first two seasons in Italian football netted 18 goals, and his career arc to this point doesn’t scream of someone who’d become a shot monster in a major European league. Before moving to Lecce in the summer of 2023, he led the Slovak First Football League in 2022-23.

The top 10 for shots per 90 so far this season makes for an interesting read, at least partly the result of only reaching the October international break in the football calendar. There are the stars which one would expect to see (Yamal, Kylian Mbappé, Erling Haaland). There’s a prospect who is trying to make a name for himself (Said El Mala). As well, you got both early-mid prime guys of varying career arcs (Gift Orban, Nicolò Zaniolo, Tiago Tomás), and possible late bloomers (Musa Al-Taamari, Pere Milla).

Of those groups, Krstović would fit into the one of early-mid prime guys. What differentiates him from the others is there’s a growing track record of him being one of the preeminent shot takers in Europe. Last season, he was just inside the top 10 for shots per 90 according to FBref. Whereas the small sample makes this season’s list something of an eyebrow raiser, last year’s top 10 has some of the most fearsome attackers in the sport. Accomplishing that on a Serie A side in Lecce who finished 17th is certainly noteworthy.

We’ve got over a season’s worth of data which suggests Krstović’s one of the best football has to offer at getting shots off, so how’s he done it? A major part is the comfort he has for generating opportunities with either foot, or in the air. Such versatility as a shooter allows him to hunt for shots in situations where others wouldn’t be able to. Of the 134 shots he took in 2024-25, these were the splits:

• Left: 29 shots, 3 goals vs. 2.26 xG

• Right: 73 shots, 5 goals vs. 5.26 xG

• Head/other: 32 shots, 1 goal vs. 1.99 xG

The tape certainly aligned with the data, painting Krstović as a versatile shooter with trigger-happy tendencies. There were shots in which he’d spin and wildly fire away in a crowd around the penalty box, using minimal backlift when preparing to shoot. Others would see him try to make something out of nothing from a speculative cross, especially following a near post run (which he regularly made) where he’d try to play on the blindside of his defender. His frame and willingness to battle versus opposing center-backs made him a threat in the air, while also getting attempts in situations as a late runner or attacking space already created by a teammate. It was also common to see him try and receive between the lines, and if given time on the ball, face forward to shoot from deep range.

In today’s game where there’s heightened importance on where teams shoot from, Krstović’s shot map from last season is almost a throwback to what you’d expect from a forward 20-plus years ago.

On the face of it, taking a high volume of shots from outside the box (and especially from really far out) is inefficient. There were certainly situations where Krstović looked off teammates who were trying to get into valuable areas, opting to instead settle for low quality looks. An xG/shot of 7% is quite low from someone who took 100+ shots in a single season. His decision making at times looked to be of a striker who thought his next attempt would go in no matter what the dynamics were, which has been the mindset of other 9s in the past.

Yet, there is an argument to be made for below average shots having merit in certain contexts. Ben Torvaney’s research from a few years back pointed out that teams which had a very bad defense experienced a minor increase in their win probability from attempting a greater volume of poor shots versus the alternative approach of taking a small amount of high quality shots. 2024-25 Lecce certainly qualified as a side which had a leaky defense, as they were tied for 4th most goals conceded in Serie A. There’s also a logic to weaker sides having a heavier diet of low xG chances. They don’t have the talent to regularly end final third possessions with a medium to high-end chance towards goal, so it’s not as if the opportunity cost is massive. This isn’t to fully excuse Krstović’s hero-ball shot selection last season, but rather provide some of the context for why.

Part of what made Krstović an intriguing forward with Lecce is he also provided some value with his link-up play. As mentioned earlier, he is comfortable battling CBs to craft out breathing room for himself. This can be from long goal kicks, including when trying to control 2nd ball regains. There were also instances of him dropping into space to receive, sometimes dragging his marker as far out as the halfway line. He showed comfort in holding off the opponent to maintain possession, and then make simple passes to nearby teammates. The more advanced reads once he faced forward could end up being a bit too late, or the touch wasn’t right and was aimed too close at the opposing defender trying to track his teammate’s run. Those ambitious passes tended to be of the right idea, subpar execution variety.

The end result was an odd form of floor raising. Rather than the usual template of a forward who did a ton of solo ball progression while being a high volume chance creator, Krstović helped keep Lecce’s attack from completely bottoming out by simply getting shots off. It’s a formula which we’ve seen in the past. Lecce were among the lowest in Serie A last season for expected goals according to FBref, but were middle of the pack in shots for. It’s not the highest level of floor raising we’ve seen, since he didn’t combine this with top notch playmaking nor reliably making stuff happen off the dribble. 

As such, there was both intrigue and trepidation when Atalanta paid €25m + €5m in add-ons over the summer to acquire him in the hopes of replacing the departing Mateo Retegui. On a much better side in Atalanta who is in less need of such hero ball performances from their 9, how portable would his skill set be? The early returns have been promising. 3.8 90s does not make a robust sample size, but within it, he’s so far done the tough task of upping his shot volume while improving his xG/shot figure.

The high level of passing and playmaking on Atalanta certainly helps, which allows Krstović to hunt for better shots. While I wouldn’t classify him as an elite off-ball mover in Serie A, I think he’s above average (and possibly very good) when also accounting for the moments where he can manufacture time for himself to receive between the lines and also how he helps create space for others to attack the box. In a new environment, he’s been able to profit off of dynamic situations by playing alongside the likes of Charles De Ketelaere, Lazar Samardžić, and Kamaldeen Sulemana. It makes it easier for Krstović to crash the 6 yard box or just in front of it for possible tap-ins. The sequence for his 2nd goal versus Torino came from a high regain ➡️ immediate lob pass in behind towards the box for Kamaldeen ➡️ sprinting to receive the square pass at the far post.

It hasn’t been complete smooth sailing for Krstović at his new club. The shot diet has improved so far, albeit there’ve still been a few wayward attempts. The decent yet unspectacular link-up play and playmaking has shown itself to limit some sequences. One thing to keep track of as the season unfolds are the occasions when he initially has the advantage on the last defender, but can’t decelerate to bump them out of the play and make it easier for himself as a shooter. If you have time and want to watch the full Krstović experience, I’d suggest watching Atalanta’s 4-1 victory over his former team (Lecce).

Trying to incorporate Krstović as a regular starter is one of several things which Ivan Jurić has been trying to juggle as the guy tasked with replacing Gian Piero Gasperini. The transition has not been the smoothest, even with the former being a disciple of the latter. There have been glimpses of them being able to be sustainably dangerous in attack, and surprisingly, Atalanta’s expected goals for under Jurić has rivaled the peak of Gasperini last season due to the direct attacks they’ve been able to manufacture.

It will be interesting to see if Krstović can continue generating 4+ shots per 90 at an excellent xG/shot clip. Such a feat would make him an example of a high volume shooter who was able to adapt his game in a different environment. As well, can his back to goal play be leveraged by Jurić to help grease the wheels of final third possessions. For Atalanta to have another successful season, their attack has to be among the ~4 best in Serie A. Doing so will likely involve turning Nikola Krstović, one of European football’s most unique floor raisers, into the most efficient version seen yet.

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