Monday Roundup - City's Crisis Continues

Brighton 2 - 1 Man City
Did you know that City have lost four in a row? And that Pep has never lost five matches in a row? You’re going to hear those phrases regularly over the next two weeks, as Sky & Friends get their full marketing hooks into a very rare City in Crisis Mode holiday special.

A LOT of people outside the coaching space poo poo tactics, saying everything about football comes down to player quality. Check this shit out.

Hurzeler made a change at half time to bring Baleba on and shift to a 1-man pivot instead of a 2, and then brought on O’Riley in the 57th (who is a creative, shooting mid) for Hinshelwood and the result was that Brighton MONSTERED City the entire second half, in ways few teams have every monstered a Pep team before.

The Haaland goal in the first half was a thing of power and beauty, set up by another excellent Kovacic pass, and finished by impressive persistence from Norse god. City were basically unbothered the entire first half minus one troublesome shot. In fact, on a different day, City could have been 2 or 3 up and everyone would have shrugged.

Then the second half came, and City couldn’t contain Brighton. The thing about Kovacic also being your best creative passer is that if he gets tired, there’s no one doing enough work in front of the back four. Kova’s 30. Gundogan is 34. They’re not dead yet, but they will fatigue more than the whippersnappers, especially during a busy calendar.

City have to make a couple of moves in January, or the title is likely Liverpool’s. This squad isn’t young enough to withstand the load.

Chelsea 1 - 1 Arsenal
The goals came on either side of a ten-minute stint in the second half, but there was a lot of action in this one for a top tier match, with the two teams racking up 30 shots. For two head coaches who are desperate for their teams to have control consistently, the lack thereof in this match was fairly pronounced.

I thought Arsenal played a dangerous game tactically, in particular around some of the space they allowed Chelsea centrally. Palmer had a dangerous chance palmed away when Partey failed to close him down in the middle, and Neto’s goal was the result of an inside run in front of the last defending line, where Arsenal again gave him time and space to shoot, and he put it in the corner.

While the match had a lot of shots, chance quality was poor all around. In fact minus the quick free kick for Havertz that was fractionally offside, it’s hard to remember many real shots of note until the very end of the match.

It feels like media-types are signing Maresca’s praises now when I am still kind of on the fence. Chelsea were solidly the fourth-best team in the PL at the end of last season under Pochettino so there’s not much upward trajectory to capture there. Meanwhile, Arteta needs to teach his team how to attack again as people are returning to health, because sufferball has gone on just a touch too long and started costing them points at the end.

Liverpool 2 - 0 Aston Villa
I was on Aston Villa +1.25 for model reasons and I hated it. I hate betting on Emery teams so much right now, and part of the reason is that it feels like dumb mistakes are baked into every match. (Sup Tyrone Mings vs Brugge?)

Which is why I am both not surprised and cannot believe how badly they got caught out on Liverpool’s opener. You know LFC are most dangerous on the break, but it takes one pass to get Salah 1v1 with Bailey off corner defense and then meep meep goes the Beamer, 1-0 for Nunez on a nice finish after Salah was fouled. The second goal was also from a fairly stupid defensive mistake that again puts Salah on the gallop, and the match ended 2-0.

To Villa’s credit, the corners were very dangerous. They should end up with a bunch of set piece goals going forward if they continue to execute like that, and there wasn’t much LFC did wrong there. At Midtjylland, the boys used to say if we got the delivery right and the timing right, we were basically unstoppable.

The xG was also only about .25 of a goal difference and the call against Watkins against Konate in the box was a call that’s usually a penalty away from Anfield. The bet was right… the result was not. 😭 

Liverpool meanwhile are clear frontrunners now. That’s not to say that an injury or two wouldn’t bring them back to the pack, but it feels like it would take a big one to make it matter.

Note: Weird YouTube fact: If you search for Aston Villa, they are like two full scrolls down on the web browser. I wanted to show Villa’s side of the highlights, but their social media game desperately needs improvement. 619k Subs on YT vs Liverpool’s 10.5M is sort of understandable, but fucking Mark Goldbridge shows up like a billion times higher than your own club accounts and I don’t watch Goldbridge for anything. Maybe this can be a 2025 club goal for everyone involved.

Brentford 3 - 2 Bournemouth
I recently described Brentford home matches as Russell Brand on a month-long bender and this match did nothing to dispel that image. This was a nice little ten percent of the time win from the Bees.

Brentford gifted Evanilson a freebie to open the scoring after nearly conceding one to Senesi a bit earlier. Then they scored an equaliser off a long throw 😍. Then Bournemouth set Set Piece nerds’ tongues wagging with a beautifully choreographed short corner team that they could run 100 more times and probably never pull off again.

Cool? Undoubtedly. Repeatable? Unlikely.

2-1 Cherries.

Daamsgaard’s goal to make it 2-2 was from an impossible angle, through both the defender and Kepa’s legs, but the Wissa goal is one we seem to see a lot in the Premier League this season. Midfielders (Janelt) releasing the ball early to pacey strikers to beat their man in a foot race and put the ball away is happening a lot right now, and part of me thinks it’s less about the high lines and more about GKs that are not nearly active enough in sweeper keeping to tie it all together.

Or maybe the passes are just that good this season?

Anyway, the StatsBomb expected goals numbers suggest Bournemouth walk away with 3 points 71% of the time here.

Bournemouth are still really good. And Bees home games against bottom half teams are pretty much appointment TV now.

West Ham 0 - 0 Everton
I promise to talk about these two teams more in matches where something actually happens.

Manchester United 3 - 0 Leicester City
I’m not really sure what to say about this one that’s going to make sense.

The story right now is Ruben Amorim, but the pieces he’s starting with are unlikely to magically form themselves back into a super club simply on arrival. To be clear, we did not hate Manchester United’s summer transfer business, so the squad isn’t awful. It’s just going to be a multi-year turnaround project to make squad quality match their budget.

Nevertheless, United fans get to go into the break feeling good about everything right now, which is a pretty unusual situation for them. Lean back and enjoy the ride.

Wolves 2 - 0 Southampton
The gambling line coming into the match had Wolves as half-goal favourites, and that’s basically where the expected goals numbers came in too. 8 shots to 9, a fairly boring match, but Wolves picked up their first victory of the season.

Southampton had 70% possession in this game. Part of that is game state related - Wolves scored in the first five minutes (credit to a gorgeous ball in the box from Matheus Cunha - a good attacker on a bad team) and were happy to bunker and play on the break - but a bigger part of that is Russell Martin’s insistence on style over pragmatism. Southampton can’t break down anyone with how they play. And they also can’t play a coherent match for a full 90 minutes. That’s on Martin and why they still sit at the bottom of the table.

The Southampton board now has literally the exact same decision to make as they had last international break, with a fraction more of the same info. The problem, however, is they burned even more of their potential future points before pulling the cord.

Crystal Palace 0 - 2 Fulham
Conceding 17 shots at home to Fulham. The story of the match is the story of the season. You can’t have a “pressing style” that doesn’t constrain shots, and Palace have that right now, which is why they are where they are in the table.

Palace fans are probably asking themselves things like “what would games be like if we didn’t just give up free goals like the one Smith Rowe got?” Or “what if our Japanese attacking midfielder that sometimes doesn’t seem so bothered by the out of possession stuff didn’t get a red card from an obviously dumb foul off a teammate’s bad pass?” And I understand where they are coming from.

Palace aren’t one of the three worst teams in the league. But they also have problems that are proving far more thorny to solve than were obvious in preseason.

Tottenham 1 - 2 Ipswich
Haha, Spurs always go one-nil down and then always recover to win.

Except, apparently, when they don’t.

This one was 18 shots to 8, but Spurs’ defending in the first half was bad enough to put them fully behind the 8-ball and they couldn’t create big enough chances against Ipswich’s defense to dig out in time.

In different good news, bad news for Spurs fans… their set pieces in attack are actually quite good right now. And their xG conceded off set pieces… is really bad.

I recommend discontinuing giving up the first goal of the game if Spurs want to finish in the European places.

Ipswich have one win this season and are one point out of the relegation places in mid-November. It’s pretty much everything they could hope for so far, but much like Spurs’ recoveries after consistently giving up the first goal of the match, it doesn’t quite feel sustainable.

Nottingham Forest 1 - 3 Newcastle
I was going to lose another bet on Forest eventually. I just hoped it wouldn’t be until after the break, and I don’t think anyone expected Newcastle to be quite this dominant.

Forest scored the first on a lovely little set piece and it felt like another win was written on the scoreboard already. But that second half from Newcastle… woof.

The first goal came for Isak off a corner (something Newcastle have been decent at in recent seasons). The second off a mini-break where Forest kind of forgot to close down Brazilian man mountain Joelinton, and he pinged one in off the post from the edge of the box. The third was off another mini-break for Newcastle, with a touch of luck involved as Harvey Barnes put it through a defender leg to just beat the keeper at the near post.

Forest are still going into the break in the rarified air of Champions League places (5th on goal difference), but they do it off the back of their worst match of the season. 🤷‍♀️ 

What to make of Newcastle? Well, the early season performance was a fluke… but the last month has been good, with a couple of outstanding matches against Forest (win) and Brighton (loss), and a grinding win against Arsenal. I’d say those are signs of hope and light for Magpies fans as we embark well and truly into the Dark Season.

—TK