Nice Champions League spot, would be a shame if you choked it away

Liverpool and Aston Villa face off on Friday, and the result probably won’t matter. Both are extremely likely to finish in Champions League places given that their rival for the spots — Bournemouth — have a match against Manchester City left on their schedule.

The spots are still very much mathematically up for grabs though, and neither fanbase will be feeling good about the way their teams are playing at the moment. I think it’s fair to say that Villa and Liverpool have both been crap over their last couple of games.

And neither is trending in a particularly encouraging direction. Villa’s attack has improved as the season has gone on generally, but it came up from the absolute depths of hell in the fall, and the recent trend is down from early spring. They’ve done well to open up a bit without completely compromising defense, though they are not defending as well right now as they were at the start of the year.

Liverpool, meanwhile, appear to have completely run out of gas. Injuries have devastated the team, with the stars that are fit unable to get a rest, and several players having to operate outside of their preferred positions. This is a big ol yikes.

While it would not mathematically secure Champions League for either team, an extremely boring handshake draw would give both sides a 90%+ chance of finishing in top 5. But if there’s a loser, that team is going to be absolutely sweating during the Bournemouth-City match midweek. I don’t have any particular dislike for either team, but I’d love to see one of them utterly collapse and lose the spot to Bournemouth, just because Sickos meme dot jpg.

There are an absolutely incredible number of big name free agents this summer, and the boys covered the 10 biggest ones on the podcast. A couple of the older players might head for MLS or Saudi Arabia, but the likes of Robert Lewandowski and Mohamed Salah could still help a club in Europe.

This week’s Patreon exclusive episode is all about transfer rumours, with Emi Martinez to Liverpool being the headliner. The boys also talk about some Man United, Bayern Munich, and Atlético Madrid rumours.

Despite the high number of teams that don’t have much left to play for, Ted is still seeing quite a bit of value in the lines this weekend. He’s got 5 bets on in the Premier League, with a lot of them taking advantage of those motivation gaps. There will be another Variance Betting post on MLS before those games kick off, and we’re off to a good start in that league, +4 units so far this year. You can subscribe to Variance Betting here if you’re interesting in football gambling and how to get smarter at it.

The FPL Corner

At this point, you probably don’t have a ton to play for in FPL. I’m a clear first place in some smaller mini leagues, and over 100 points off the lead in some more competitive ones. But if you are one of the people who’s within reach of first place, you might want to shoot for the moon on some differentials.

The most obvious thing up front: You should still have 3 Arsenal and 3 Man City players. You might want to get weird with who those players are, but if that’s not 6 of your 11, you are throwing. From the homies at Solio:

Bukayo Saka is likely to be the most captained player among top players this week, and your best potential differential is probably an off-meta Arsenal player. I’ve got mine on Gabriel, and I don’t think it’s a terrible idea to throw yours on Declan Rice or Viktor Gyökeres, if you’re making a desperate chase.

I’d also consider basically any Brighton or Brentford player who’s performed well recently, given that those teams both have a ton to play for and are facing opponents who are already on the beach.

Games we’re watching

The easiest place to find TV and stream listings for your country is probably LiveSoccerTV.

Celtic vs. Hearts — A bonus addition to the slate from Scotland this week. If Celtic win, they win the title. If Hearts win or draw, they win the title. It could have been settled already, but Celtic were the beneficiaries of a controversial VAR ruling in their last game, so The Discourse is heated.

Chelsea vs. Manchester City — The FA Cup comes in the middle of Premier League matchweek 37 this season, thanks to the expanded World Cup. FIFA ruins everything. Would Chelsea even consider the season salvaged if they won?

Barcelona vs. Real Betis — There’s not much to play for left in La Liga, but at least these teams are both fun.

Frankfurt vs. Stuttgart (but honestly just watch Konferenz) — Stuttgart lead Hoffenheim for the final Champions League spot on goal difference, while Bayer Leverkusen are technically still alive too. This is the final day for the Bundesliga, put on the whiparound show and enjoy the chaos.

Lyon vs. Lens (and keep an eye on Lille and Rennes) — Ligue 1 doesn’t do a whiparound show of the same quality as the Bundesliga one to my knowledge, but same deal here. 3 teams in the mix for the final Champions League spot.

Roma vs. Lazio — The Rome Derby also has huge Champions League stakes, with Roma currently level on points with Milan, only 1 behind Juventus and 2 in front of Como.

Stuff we’re reading

Ali Tweedale at Opta Analyst covers the best and worst possible positions that Premier League teams can still finish in.

Jonathan Liew at The Guardian gets cynical on VAR, and it’s hard to disagree.

Paul Tenorio at The Athletic thinks Zavier Gozo’s form in MLS has earned the uncapped teenager a place in the USMNT World Cup squad.

Cesar Hernandez at ESPN attempted to quantify who has that dawg in them, ranking USMNT players by xDAWG.

Matthew Doyle at Tactics Free Zone covered some interesting topics in his mailbag, with my favorite being what he’d change if he was MLS commissioner.

Flo Lloyd-Hughes at The Cutback reported on NWSL changing its high impact player rule, which would have prevented teams from signing Sam Kerr, so that it is now possible for them to sign Sam Kerr. Very well-thought out rule!

If you enjoyed this newsletter, we’d appreciate it if you would forward it to a friend. If you’re that friend, welcome! You can subscribe to The Transfer Flow here. We also have a podcast where we go in depth on transfer news and rumours every week. We’re on YouTube here, and you can subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify by searching for “The Transfer Flow Podcast.” If you’re interested in football betting, check out this post on why we started Variance Betting.