Nick Woltemade isn't exactly an Alexander Isak replacement

The 2025 summer transfer window was a dramatic one for Newcastle, dominated by the transfer saga involving Alexander Isak. After a bunch of twists and turns, the final result was a British record deal by Liverpool to acquire the Swedish international. Liverpool acquired one of the best strikers in the world at the peak of his career, while Newcastle saved a bit of face in the end given the magnitude of the fee.

Part of what made this summer such a hectic one for Newcastle was how many strikers they were linked to in some manner. The two names in particular the club which came up regularly were Hugo Ekitike and Benjamin Šeško. Ekitike ended up signing with Liverpool, while Šeško made the move to Manchester United. Newcastle did end up signing two strikers to try and make up for what Isak offered, the first being Yoanne Wissa. His age 27 season in 2024-25 with Brentford was the best of his career to this point, pulling off the rare feat of improving his shot volume and locations en route to 19 non-penalty goals in the Premier League (tied for 2nd in the league). 

The other forward, and the one who commanded the bigger fee, was Nick Woltemade. After years of slowly coming through Werder Bremen’s youth system (including a loan in 22-23 to SV Elversberg in 3. Liga), he finally got some minutes for the first team in his age 22 season in 23-24. 2024-25 was when he exploded onto the scene as a Stuttgart player. 14 goals and assists in under 2000 minutes last season was a really good return, with underlying numbers right around the 12 non-penalty goals and assists he produced.

The headline trait involving Woltemade is his height, at around 6’5-6’6. Even in today’s age where so many strikers are above 6’0, he is a humongous figure on the pitch. You would think given his statue that he’d have a constant advantage physically vs opposing center-backs, buthe reality is a bit more nuanced than that.

He was above average in terms of aerial wins, and a 44% success rate last season was solid but not dominant for an attacking talent. He can miss the trajectory of long balls during different game scenarios, and he could get muscled out of his spot while trying to judge the flight. However, his stature did mean he’d often attract a double team during aerial duels and could open up space for teammates to collect 2nd balls even if he lost the initial battle.

Part of what makes him an interesting forward is that at least vs Bundesliga defenders, he was adept at receiving ground passes with his back to goal. Part of it is due to being solid at shielding the ball, including in advanced areas. From there, he can look to utilize his off-arm to gain leverage in attempting to spin off his marker. The off-arm would sometimes be used to spin on the first touch into space. Given his size, he couldn’t consistently create separation off the dribble and often had to operate in a phone booth. His footwork in tight areas when evading opponents is impressive, including when trying to bypass sliding tackles with a deft first touch. The drawback is he can’t always manufacture awe-inspiring solo carries because of a lack of speed and acceleration, having to instead rely on nifty footwork and getting an advantage by opponents bouncing off of him on the initial challenge. Among Bundesliga forwards last year, he was 49th out of 54th in successful carry attempts.

If there is a play that shows some of the best Woltemade has to offer at this stage of his development, it’d be his 2nd goal versus Union Berlin from last December. After attempting to curl in behind along the LW, possession gets recycled back to Atakan Karazor, who zips a line breaking pass towards the box. Woltemade’s first touch is clean enough that he continues his stride, absorbs a bit of contact in the box and scores.

If there is a swing skill for Woltemade, it’s what he can do as a passer and playmaker. Once he establishes positions with his back to goal, he’s proficient with short lay-offs and at least trying headed passes forward. There’s an inventiveness and awareness to his passing, including combining with teammates immediately when facing forwards and using the outside of his right foot in certain instances near the box. When Woltemade’s on his game, you’ll see him bust out some inventive deliveries.

Off the ball is something of a mixed bag for Woltemade at this stage. A lot of what he does with his movement is based on trying to find space between the lines and coming towards the ball. Often, he’ll gesture at teammates to feed him in the pocket. This can occasionally open space for others to attack in behind while he’s dragging defenders out of position. He could be better though at sprinting ahead immediately following successfully playing with his back to goal. Once the ball gets to the flank, he’ll occasionally utilize a sharp cut towards the near post or try to stealthily fade towards the far, but the key word is occasional. The awareness to attack space in behind is more evident during chaotic situations on the blindside of defenders, including when Stuttgart would create high turnovers through their press. At this stage of his career, he’s more consistent being the guy who makes late runs into the box when others have cleared space for him. 

Despite those concerns, Woltemade’s shot chart was rather healthy last season. An xG per shot of 15.7% overall is quite good compared to others at his position, and 16.7% from open play is also quite healthy. Something that helped him in the box was not needing extra touches to get shots off. The volume is not at the level you’d want it to be, and some of those shots were the end result of being in the right place at the right following a high regain of possession.

There is no doubting Woltemade is a talented attacker. His nimbleness on the ball for a guy at 6’6 is something you don’t often see, and he can do some of the traditional stuff you’d want from when battling opposing CBs. The quick hitting passing and chance creation does show promise, which could be the way he jumps up a level or two. His movement patterns lean more towards the mold of a 10 or second striker with how much he comes towards the ball, limiting the opportunities he’ll have in the box and perhaps being more reliant on being a plus finisher in the future.

Newcastle's acquisition of Woltemade is part of a continuing trend in the Premier League at the striker position. Clubs left and right, especially at the highest level, are chasing these forwards who have even a whiff of unicorn like abilities. Just this summer alone, we’ve seen Ekitike, Šeško, Viktor Gyökeres, and other tall strikers join what had already been a strong list of imposing #9’s in English football. You look at the current list, and it’s bordering on ridiculous.

It’s not hard to see how we reached this point, as the tactical landscape certainly played a part in this. With a resurgence in man-to-man marking out of possession, having strong outlets to bypass the press is important. As well, these strikers are tasked with stretching the backline by making runs in behind in different game states, such as transitions with the Premier League becoming increasingly reliant on fast attacks. Woltemade certainly qualifies in terms of being a potential outlet during buildup, although less so for spamming runs in behind. For more on the topic, I’d highly suggest reading Ashwin Raman’s deep dive from the summer.

In some ways, what’s happened with the infatuation of tall forwards in football resembles franchises in the NBA chasing star wings who were 6’6 to 6’9. Teams would reach in the draft or in trades to acquire them given the luxury a star (or even two of them) at that size can bring at both ends of the court. If we use that thinking in football with tall forwards, it helps explain (at least a little bit) why some of the prices rose to such high levels this past summer window. In the case of Woltemade specifically, we have less than 2000 minutes of him playing at an above average level in a top 5 league and he’s not super young either at 23 years old. At €75m + €5m in potential add-ons, few would argue the fee isn’t substantial.

Perhaps the biggest question with Woltemade is what does the idealized version of him look like in a starting XI. Do you play him as something of a 9.5 alongside goal hungry inside forwards? Guys like Harry Kane and Karim Benzema serve as examples for such a striker succeeding at a very high level. In Anthony Gordon and Anthony Elanga, there could be chemistry developed among those three. The bar to being a high-end 9.5 is quite high though given the different responsibilities that have to be juggled. One of them is remaining a formidable box presence, which Woltemade isn’t at this point of his development.

Another option is for him to play as a second striker or a #10 alongside a forward who is more focused on pinning the opposition backline. It was the setup he was in while playing under Sebastian Hoeneß where Deniz Undav was often the one to make forward movements. This becomes a problem out of possession in the Premier League comes given his athletic limitations. He’d have to make up for that by being someone who is regularly approaching 20 goals and assists during a league season, and there’s real skepticism over whether this is possible from him.

A comparison I come back to with Woltemade is Joshua Zirkzee. Zirkzee’s success with Bologna in 2023-24 came from being an associative talent who would often drop between the lines to link with teammates and allow them to make forward movements in near synchrony. Between the two, Zirkzee showed more in terms of ball security and seamlessly creating neat combinations sequences, while Woltemade is better at being a focal point. While you can argue a lot of things outside Zirkzee’s control contributed to an uninspiring debut season with Manchester United (and a now murky future in English football), it’s also true that Serie A as a league suited his talents much more. The fear with Woltemade is that a similar argument could be made with him and the Bundesliga when we look back on this deal in a few years time.

Outside of perhaps the acquisition of Sandro Tonali, there’s been no signing which has carried a bigger risk for Newcastle in this recent era than the one for Nick Woltemade. There’s multiple things going against the move. For one, he’s about to enter his prime years and we’ve got a small sample size of success from him. His skill-set is peculiar and gives him a narrow pathway towards success at the highest level of play. As well, it’s hard to come up with successful comparisons for him (both past and present). If Woltemade is a success in the Premier League, he’ll be one of English football’s unique figures as primarily a 6’6 playmaking hub.

If things don’t work out, it’ll be one of the premier examples of a transfer gone wrong. Of all the moves done this summer in the PL, few carry more boom or bust potential. For Newcastle, they’re desperately hoping it’s the former rather than the latter.

If you enjoyed this newsletter, we’d appreciate it if you would forward it to a friend. If you’re that friend, welcome! You can subscribe to The Transfer Flow here. We also have a podcast where we go in depth on transfer news and rumours every week. We’re on YouTube here, and you can subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify by searching for “The Transfer Flow Podcast.”