This preview is written by Mohamed Mohamed (@moesquare on Bluesky and Twitter).

Moe has writing about football in the public sphere for nearly a decade for various outlets, including The Analyst, The Athletic, and StatsBomb. As well, he’s dipped his toes into the world of YouTube with the channel Footy Insights, which looks into the present and past of the beautiful game. He’s written for us several times previously, most recently on the career of Kevin De Bruyne.

Through the March international break, Nottingham Forest were on their way to having one of the bigger surprise seasons in quite some time. They were 3rd place through 29 games, 5 points up on Chelsea and 6 on Manchester City. This was a drastic turn in fortune from preseason expectations, where season previews had them finishing just above the relegation zone. A solid stretch of play could’ve gotten them into a Champions League for the first time since 1981.

Everyone knows what happened next, as the clock struck midnight on Forest’s Cinderella run and they had to settle for 7th. 11 points from their final 9 matches sunk them, with the other clubs around them finding their groove at the end. In some ways, the 2024-25 season for Forest resembled what happened to Leicester City in 2020 and 21, where they also finished just outside a CL spot after having a gap over the chasing pack deep into the season. It’s the type of season that can be tough to analyze, as both clubs clearly performed above what was initially expected, but there’s a bit of a what-if feeling by the end. In other words, it’s the Kevin Garnett meme from Uncut Gems.

Things look rather unstable for Nottingham Forest heading into next season. They’ll be playing twice a week through at least January. There’ve been key departures to the squad, with little activity done so far. As well, there’s the potential for regression back to the mean (we’ll touch on this shortly).

So what I described previously is the makings of a decent team. The combination of allowing a bunch of long range shots from distance, creating some high quality opportunities on the break, and being a menace from set pieces can get you by. It’s certainly fair to argue Forest were a decent team last season, better than many (including yours truly) had expected.

What made last season such a trip is in addition to having a decent floor, they got the kind of finishing variance which can propel a club like them into a CL spot deep into the campaign. Their overall underlying numbers did not match what you’d expect from a team who ended up in a European spot at season's end, although this does happen on occasion.

There’ll be attempts at trying to explain how Forest ended up with such a difference between their goals and non-penalty expected goals. As basic of an answer as this is, sometimes shit happens. You’ll get a season like Forest had where you score 11 goals from outside the box, which was tied for 2nd in the league. It’s harder to bank on that happening once again, especially if you don’t have such a massive talent advantage compared to the rest of the pack or players with a noted track record of scoring above expectations from distance.

There’s also the issue that they faded hard down the stretch last season. This isn’t a trend you want to see.

The best way to describe Forest’s style of play last season was very meat and potatoes-esque. It was in line with what you’d expect to see from a club coached by Nuno Espírito Santo, especially with the squad at his disposal. They would defend in a compact block just inside their own half and allow the opposition center backs to have time on the ball, banking that they can close off any passing options into their own third. When it worked, the opposition was limited to low quality opportunities from distance. Any attempts at crossing into the box would be met by the wall known as Nikola Milenković. It’s no surprise that across a variety of defensive metrics which try to quantify a team’s proactiveness out of possession, Forest were far below average.

From there, they could spring into fast break opportunities since the front four would leak out to receive in space and attack an unsettled backline. In particular, Anthony Elanga and Morgan Gibbs-White were dangerous in these situations. Elanga’s ability to get shots off with either foot, and Gibbs-White’s robustness made it tough for the opponents to deal with. Forest’s directness in possession could also be seen with how often they’d go long from goal kicks. In those situations, Chris Wood would often be the reference point for others to work around from to create something quick from a 2nd ball regain.

No talk of Forest’s 24-25 campaign would be complete without a mention of their set piece prowess, which helped boost their ability to change the outlook of matches. They were +8 for set-piece goals for vs against, which was tied for 2nd in the league with Aston Villa (you’ll be shocked to hear that Brentford was +11). No team scored more from dead-ball situations than Forest. This marked a massive upgrade from the 23-24 season, when they were arguably the worst in the league.

Everyone’s favorite set piece sicko Jake Fox noted that terrible goalkeeping performance from Matz Sels (who was drastically better in 24-25) and Matthew Turner, along with instability with the squad, made it tough to perform. Previous work from WT Analysis made mention of increased experimentation with deep free kicks, Milenković’s importance as an aerial threat, and shoring up previous weakness with defending the near post during corners.

The big moves for both incomings and outgoings involved wingers.

Players out: LB Alex Moreno, CM James Ward-Prowse, LW Ramon Sosa, RW Anthony Elanga, CM Danilo, LB Harry Toffolo

We’ve already touched on Elanga’s importance last season, especially during matches where they were clear underdogs. It is a tough sell to the fanbase that you’re selling an attacker who’s approaching their prime years. That said, Forest did well in getting over £50 million from Newcastle for a player who has noticeably overperformed his underlying production en route to accumulating 31 goals and assists over the past two seasons.

Other outgoings were bit-part players and should have their minutes easily replaced.

Players in: ST Igor Jesus, CB Jair Cunha, RW Dan Ndoye

In Elanga’s place is Dan Ndoye, the Swiss international acquired from Bologna, where he helped them win the 2025 Coppa Italia. He’s a versatile winger who can play multiple positions, as shown by his performance at Euro 2024.

He was given a greater usage under Vincenzo Italiano and at least against Serie A competition, Ndoye's physicality as a progressive carrier shone through. Of the 27 Serie A wingers/attacking midfielders with at least 1500 minutes played, he was 3rd in Dribble and Carry OBV, 7th in successful dribbles p90, 5th in deep completions, and 1st in average carry length. At around £35 million plus add-ons with the Italian club retaining a 10% sell-on clause, this represents a significant bet from Forest that Ndoye can continue his effectiveness in English football.

Igor Jesus and Jair Cunha are both coming off impressive Club World Cup performances, and should be rotation players in their first seasons in England.

There was a bunch of buzz concerning Gibbs-White joining Tottenham, but after a bunch of shenanigans occurred (including Forest threatening legal action over their approach), the end result was a surprise contract extension through 2028. This might just be delaying his departure by another year, but he’s an above average PL talent who's in his prime years.

A quick summary:

Numbers for Jesus and Cunha taken from 2024 and omitting the current year, since it was their last full season. This makes things a bit wacky, especially given that Cunha was in Brazilian Serie B last year.

Compared to other clubs in the division, singling out one individual from Forest’s squad last season is tough to do since it really felt like an ensemble cast. There are multiple candidates to choose from for this section. So I’m going to take this opportunity to go with someone who has generated 38 goals and assists in the past two PL seasons, Chris Wood. As the famous philosopher Shaquille O’Neal once said, just give it to the big man and let him dominate (with a ton of headed goals).

Yes, Wood is quite limited in terms of providing extra value. He’s not going to drop deep and orchestrate play, nor will he take opponents off the dribble. He’s a throwback striker who makes his living in the central zone of the box by being a complete nuisance, which few other players in the PL can compare to. Being at the right club has allowed his skill-set to be fully maximized, producing the two best seasons of his career from a goals and assists standpoint.

It’s fair to argue just how much longer Wood will continue to defy the age curve. It’s not very often that a striker has such productive years after 30. Perhaps his style of play should age easier than others at his position, allowing to continue being productive. However, we can also be guilty of underrating how damaging it can be for players who aren’t seen as athletic powerhouses to lose even an inch of pace off the mark.

Elliot Anderson was thought of highly within the Newcastle academy system. He was a local player who would soon climb the ranks of his boyhood club to become an established figure. However, the realities of PSR forced a move from the Magpies. Newcastle’s loss was Forest’s gain, as he was an unsung hero for their success. Within the steady system, he was a dash of unpredictability as an all-action #8 who helped make things tick. The radar below compared to league average at his position doesn’t show him in the greatest of lights, in part because of the system he played in and game state dynamics.

Out of possession, Anderson is a tireless worker for the team. He’s diligent at covering passing angles when defending in his own half. As well, he provides help and balances different responsibilities in a low defensive block. Higher up the pitch, he can be more aggressive in attempting to win the ball back immediately following a loss in possession. In those moments, he can be guilty occasionally of running around aimlessly and ending up vacating the midfield with those missed gambles, partly due to not having the quickest first couple of steps off the mark.

Going forward, Anderson can keep possession sequences going with simple passes, and showed some chemistry with Gibbs-White and Callum Hudson-Odoi in the left halfspace. While he doesn’t have impressive acceleration as a carrier, he shows enough strength for players to bounce off of him. Perhaps the most intriguing area with him in attack is his willingness to make forward runs as part of a midfield 2/3. He’ll often pop up in situations where he’s trying to attack space in behind. In a more adventurous setup, those runs could be taken advantage of more often. A nice example of Anderson’s off-ball awareness is the goal he scored vs Southampton, which came from a third man run off of a throw-in.

Combine all of that, and you get a burgeoning box-to-box central midfielder who already shows to have a solid floor with avenues for further improvement (particularly off the ball).

There’s a solid argument to be made that since hiring Nuno Espírito Santo, Nottingham Forest have been a normal mid-table side. In their past 59 PL matches, they’ve had a +7 goal difference and accumulated 87 points. That gets you around 56 points over the course of a 38 game season, a solid figure that over the past five years would’ve placed you somewhere between 7th to 11th in the table. We have evidence to suggest Nuno’s game model, if given the right players to work with, can lead to solid results. If Ndoye comes in and replaces Elanga’s production, you can talk yourself into thinking they’ll match last year’s campaign.

The downside risk for Forest next season is noteworthy, even if they had kept everyone for another season. The simple reality is it’s hard to envision them once again outpacing their expected goal tally by nearly 10 (39 vs 29.7). That helped them get early leads in matches, with them having a +5 goal differential in the first 15 minutes, only bested by Spurs (what a weird season they had). They rarely fell behind in matches, with only Arsenal and Liverpool having a smaller proportion of minutes from a losing game state. It is a lot easier to defend in a shell and spring counter attacks into space when you’re in a winning game state. Add to it the demands of playing in Europe, and the situation could be quite tough to overcome.

Maybe the formula could work again, albeit to a lesser extent, if their set piece success carries over to next season. We’ve seen clubs struggle from open play and survive off of dominating corner routines. Some examples of this include Everton in 2024, Brentford in 2022, and an older one with West Brom in 2017. As well, with how much of a gap there is between the PL and the Championship these days, it would take something seismic for Forest to truly be in a relegation scrap by next spring.

What happened to Burnley in the late 2010s might serve as an example for Nottingham Forest’s upcoming season. Their penalty box defending flummoxed public expected goal models for years, which helped them overachieve and finish in a European spot in 2018. Trying to balance Europe and the PL was too much for them a season later, as they scratched and clawed to 15th place.

I project Nottingham Forest to have a similar fate; still likely above the relegation fracas, but a clear step down from last season’s heights. My colleagues have collectively voted them to finish comfortably mid-table, though votes ranged from 8th to 14th.

Prediction: 11th.