Overrated or Underrated: A Premier League Quarter Life Crisis

All of the Premier League teams have played nine matches, which is nearly a quarter of the way through the season. Therefore it feels like a good time to switch up the usual content of the Monday column, and dig underneath the surface for each of these teams.

Obviously given who we are, the initial assessment of whether a team is over or underrated will be through the lens of their stats and the league table. But we are also footballing experts, and stats do not, in fact, tell you the whole truth and nothing but the truth. So we’ll fill in the blanks for what the stats might be missing, and what the start of this season portends for the rest of the year.

We’ll go in league table order, which is going to get weird shockingly quickly. The Premier League is deeply weird for a second season in a row — revel in it.

Arsenal

Rated: Correctly
Strengths: Defense, Set Pieces
Weaknesses: Open play goals
Likely Finish: 1st

Nine years ago now (fuck me, I am old), I prognosticated about what might happen if great technical teams also added set pieces to their bag of tricks. The lens of that article was around Atlético Madrid beating teams with Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo to a La Liga title, but it came from my coach education work inside of Brentford and Midtjylland. Fast forward a decade, and the team that seems to have adopted this mantra most whole-heartedly is also one it would have been anathema to at the time.

I asked an Arsenal employee in 2015 to imagine Arsenal taking long throws like Stoke. “Arsene would die before he ever let that happen.”

A lot of things can change in a decade!

Part of my early analysis on set pieces in Denmark showed no scoring drop-off from improved set pieces, which people found remarkable at the time. I think that happened because the good Danish teams were like, “OO EXTRA GOALS CAN HELP US WIN.”

But there’s a different mindset available that says, “extra goals at no risk can help us defend more aggressively. And maybe win more too?” Which also a totally valid opinion to have and way of playing football.

For the record — and I need to state this because I get blame for all sorts of opinions I do not share on this issue — it’s not the path that I chose or would choose. But it certainly seems like many teams in the Premier League landed here at the cost of doing the fun parts of football. This level of defense + Set Piece FC is sicko-mode only, and not for the faint of heart.

tl;dr Maybe save that shit for knockout tournaments?

Anyway, everything has gone right for Arsenal so far this season. Their injuries have been somewhat mitigated by the win now+depth signings of the summer, and they look on track to win their first PL title in fuck-I-am-so-old-again years. Don’t expect it to continue this way, but the defense is so good, hey definitely have a chance.

Bournemouth

Rated: Overrated
Strengths: Coach, Recruitment, Scoring Bangers
Weaknesses: Attacking when they are not scoring bangers
Likely Finish: Europa League?

I’m astounded Bournemouth are here given what they sold and replaced over the summer. They won’t always score sick goals from range (or directly from corners), but they are an excellent team that is difficult to play against, and punch massively above their weight.

Just don’t expect it to continue throughout the season, because as good as they are, the laws of football averages will eventually bite (or injuries will), and they’ll settle back closer to the 5-8th pack they finished in last season. Probably.

Tottenham Hotspur

Rated: Overrated
Strengths: Defending, Set Pieces, Long Throws
Weaknesses: Passing, Generating Shots, Depth
Likely Finish: Not Europa League?

Spurs have yet to lose away, which feels like a bit of deja vu to Brentford last season. They also have one home win from four, against Burnley. That’s not entirely surprising given who they have hired as their Head Coach, but Spurs should have been a talent upgrade over the Bees, right?

Well, sort of. There are definitely higher ceilings on many of the Spurs players, and maybe the overall squad quality is better, but there are also a lot of holes. And a Champions League campaign to pursue after a season where they finished 17th. As such, I think Spurs are doing remarkably well.

I’m not so much damning with faint praise here as reminding everyone of last season’s baseline. Midtable would be an improvement on last season, but also feel terrible for Spurs fans at this stage.

Sunderland

Rated: Overrated
Strengths: Defending, GK
Weaknesses: Attacking
Likely Finish: 10-12th

I know they are fourth — and that is amazing, especially since they just scalped Chelsea away — but from a metrics perspective you could swap Sunderland with Fulham or even Forest and it would be just as believable.

The Black Cats have scored one fewer goal than Burnley, but are joint second best for goals allowed at 7. Is that sustainable? I don’t know… maybe ask again after they have played Arsenal, City, Liverpool and Newcastle.

Manchester City

Rated: Underrated
Strengths: Defending, Haaland, Weird Tactical Style
Weaknesses: Set Pieces, Depth, Weird Tactical Style?
Likely Finish: 2nd

I am on record as enjoying football more when Pep Guardiola struggles, partly because it gives other teams a chance to win things, but more because I want to see a certified genius problem-solve on the fly.

I am also on record as having picked Manchester City for the title (mostly because the odds were too juicy), so maybe a little less problem-solving would be welcome.

We’re in season two of “Rodri is injured/struggles to stay fit” and it feels like Pep’s old way of playing football ain’t coming back. The Premier League is too big, too fast, and too talented to contain every team all of the time the way that he used to do.

So can City win trophies without a massive talent advantage, and a coach who needs to rediscover his ability to win without being dominant? Literally no one knows, and that is all of the fun.

But I’m also saying there’s a chance.

Manchester United

Rated: Correctly?
Strengths: Attacking Set Pieces. Attack?
Weaknesses: Defending
Likely Finish: Europa League

We didn’t like their summer transfer window, but what we didn’t like had nuance. They improved the attack, but overpaid while leaving some important parts of the squad nearly barren.

So far, it’s working out better than most had anticipated. The win against Liverpool was a bit lucky, but that plus four wins in five in the Premier League must feel like the most glorious sunshine to the red half of Manchester.

Are they going to sustain this? Maybe…? With no European competition, they can potentially avoid injuries and fatigue in a way the other challenging clubs cannot. It also gives Ruben Amorim more training ground time to imprint tactics and gameplans — not a luxury any other good team except Bournemouth really has this season.

In my preseason rankings, I think I had them 9th. They are basically one extra win off that, but if you squint a bit, this league table position makes sense. I’ve been saying since early days on the pod that I am cautiously optimistic about this season’s United, and I see no reason to back off that stance. Their loose defense also means United matches are kind of fun to watch for the first time in ages, which is a lovely change of pace. (I am totally referring to this as United’s Loose Caboose for the rest of the season and you can’t stop me.)

[Note: Erik ten Hag had a season where United gave up the second most shots in Europe, but that team was only fun to hate watch.]

Liverpool

Rated: Uhh…
Strengths: Attacking. Depth
Weaknesses: Defending, Set Pieces. Square Pegs, Round Holes.
Likely Finish: CL Spots

Liverpool are neither as good as their run to start the season nor as bad as the current string of losses. The issues thus far are myriad.

• Is Salah cooked? [Maybe?]

• What is the best tactical setup to get the most out of their talent? This isn’t a question for most teams, because coaches can’t adapt that much — they just play their system and the talent adapts. But Slot seems flexible, which is both good and complicated at the same time.

• Why isn’t their press any good right now?

• Why does it feel like none of their attackers really firing?

• The fullbacks are [fill in the blank]

• What happens if injuries hit the CB/DMs?

I have thoughts on some of this, but when you put them all together it gets complicated quickly. On the pitch, the attacking numbers are near the best in the league, but they can’t defend well, and as such, results have been volatile. I think they will figure elements of it out before the season ends, but probably not soon enough to compete for another title.

Also, this is season two of Liverpool not being remotely elite at set pieces. Someone needs to make that a huge priority and soon, because that is one phase of the game with HUGE compounding effects that last years. It needs to be part of the culture, and I feel like it was five years ago?

I said in our transfer grades I thought Liverpool made moves to try and transition from post-Klopp into another dynasty, but left it a couple of players short. That feels even more true now than two months ago.

Aston Villa

Rated: Overrated?
Strengths: Defending, Set Pieces, Breaking Teams’ Hearts
Weaknesses: Attacking
Likely Finish: 8-10th?

There are SO MANY QUESTION MARKS with this club even after nine matches. Are they as bad as the run to start the season? Obviously not. Are they as good as 4 wins and 2 draws? Also no.

Emery is both good at setting up a team to defend, and bad at incorporating a lot of negative edges into his coaching style. Maybe it’s two sides of the same coin, but look around the league and you quickly realise it doesn’t have to be.

Looking at the numbers, I struggle to be optimistic about this, okay?

This is bad and he should feel bad, and someone should tell him that in person.

Chelsea

Rated: Correctly Rated?
Strengths: Depth, Budget, Attacking Set Pieces, Strasbourg
Weaknesses: Quality Depth, Defensive Set Pieces
Likely Finish: Oh Boy…

This is complicated. How much can you penalise a team who have had a string of injuries and are forced to play their 6th-choice CB regularly?

But also, how much of [all of this] is systemic and the result of various choices made and not made in the summer?

If you feel like the league table does not reflect their goal difference, you would be correct. But their goal difference is outperforming their expected goals in attack by 4.5 goals, sooooo yeah.

I think with some health they will recover to float around the CL spots again, but I’m not sure of it, which is a warning sign. I’ll save the Maresca commentary for some other time. I’m pretty sure I was right, but there keep being special circumstances that cloud the analysis.

Crystal Palace

Rated: Underrated
Strengths: Attacking, Attacking Set Pieces
Weaknesses: Depth
Likely Finish: Edge of the CL?

This is bold, but with fewer draws, we would be very noisy about Palace as potential CL contenders. And it’s not like they aren’t trying. The xG numbers in attack are inflated from the crazy Bournemouth comeback, but that game deserves some credit because Bournemouth are legit. So Palace are now a solid or better attacking side that can also defend and can go toe-to-toe with the big clubs.

It’s a shame their ownership is weird and messy, because this whole group has been cooking, and I’m fairly impressed with the results.

Brentford

Rated: Overrated
Strengths: Defending, Set Pieces
Weaknesses: 
Likely Finish: Midtable

The Bees have gone from “worried about relegation” to “safely midtable” in the course of two weeks. This was after selling their two best attackers in the summer window and hiring the set piece coach as head coach.

That’s Chinese Diver levels for degree of difficulty in running a football team.

Newcastle United

Rated: Underrated
Strengths: Defending, Great First XI
Weaknesses: Depth. Attacking. Depth
Likely Finish: Europa League? CL depends on health

They are an elite defensive club in the modern Premier League. That’s awesome. But the squad is not deep enough to withstand a CL run alongside a PL run, and managing that will cost them.

I think they are a lot better than their league table position, but boy am I worried about what happens if their starters get injured. They could probably use Yankuba Minteh and Elliott Anderson right about now.

Brighton

Rated: Underrated
Strengths: Squad Talent
Weaknesses: Hürzeler, Set Pieces, Dumb Mistakes
Likely Finish: 8-12th

Brighton have Europa League or Champions League level talent, but consistently give away goals in weird and fascinating ways. At first that is a player thing, but when it happens to seemingly everyone across the squad in multiple season, it gradually becomes a coaching thing.

I thought Fabian Hürzeler was a bold and positive hire, but at this point I don’t see him getting the results with this squad that the talent deserves. He’s not bad, but if you gave this squad to Oliver Glasner or Andoni Iraola, would they compete for CL spots? I’m pretty sure they would, which is why I expect Brighton to make a change eventually.

I also don’t understand why Brighton aren’t a lot better at set pieces. This goes hand in hand with Liverpool’s issues for switched on clubs having difficulty getting every great idea all the way down to the pitch.

Maybe Tony’s focus is fully on disrupting Scotland and Belgium.

Everton

Rated: Correctly Rated
Strengths: Jack Grealish
Weaknesses: Talent, Depth
Likely Finish: 12-15th

It has been great to see Grealish having fun again, and to see Moyes hand him the keys to the car. Beyond that, Everton’s job this season is to figure out what the rest of the squad holes are and to stay in the league.

This is very much a vibes season for them.

Leeds United

Rated: Underrated
Strengths: Defending
Weaknesses: Attacking
Likely Finish: 11-15th

The team is good. The numbers are good. The style is fairly consistent. But the results… are disappointing. That should correct itself if all things stay the same through the course of the year. I definitely feel like they are staying up.

Burnley

Rated: Overrated
Strengths: Spoofing Expected Goals. Black Magic
Weaknesses: Defending
Likely Finish: Relegation

There will be three teams relegated this season, and everything I know about football says that Burnley are very VERY likely to be one of them. You can’t take 8 shots a game and give up 18 and not be terrible.

They are basically doubling their xG in attack so far, which is what explains pretty much all of their extra league table performance.

That said, it’s Burnley… expected goals don’t work as well there as they do in the rest of the world. And it’s spooky season, so what were we expecting?

Fulham

Rated: Underrated
Strengths: Defending, Boredom
Weaknesses: The Schedule so Far
Likely Finish: 11-15th

Corporate wants you to look at a photo of 2024-25 Fulham and 25-26 Fulham and tell them what is different.

“They’re the same picture.”

Nottingham Forest

Rated: Underrated?
Strengths: Squad Talent
Weaknesses: Choices in Head Coaches?
Likely Finish: Not Relegated

The Nuno to Ange to Dyche tactical whiplash is extreme, but we are back in the land of sense. Dyche has better talent here than ever before and results should follow fairly quickly.

Or I am wrong about Dyche, which is possible but unlikely.

West Ham

Rated: Correctly Rated
Strengths: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Weaknesses: Set Pieces, Defending, Squad talent
Likely Finish: Relegation?

Through nine matches, West Ham are fairly clearly one of the two worst teams in the league. Can Nuno guide them out of that? Things like the Brentford game suggest this is a much bigger ask than some might have initially anticipated.

At this point, I am leaning no. Hammers down.

Wolves

Rated: Underrated
Strengths: Strikers tall
Weaknesses: Conceding really dumb goals
Likely Finish: Relegation?

Wolves are not that bad. The results are, but the underlying numbers so far would usually have them a bit outside relegation, but not getting flushed into the Championship. And they had a very hot run in the back half of last season with basically the same squad. Confusing stuff.

The problem is that few teams in this season’s PL are bad at all. As such, two points through nine games could already be a death knell for the team.

The good news is that they could probably bounce back up to the Premier League right away as constructed. The bad news is that they might have to sell all of their good players because we don’t actually know how finances work at that club, and who knows what would happen then.

—TK

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