Welcome back to the Monday Premier League recap. It was a fun, exciting weekend of pre-European football for everyone except Forest and Spurs fans. You had a big team clash at the Emirates, some great goals in Everton, and defending that must be seen to be believed over at Fulham.
We’re three matches in and I’m not sure we know anything except Arsenal are stupidly good right now and everyone else is trying to figure things out. And a lot of teams start European competition this week, which just adds more spice to the mix.
Note: We link the team videos on Youtube because those are the ones that get around geo-restrictions, but be aware that the team highlights are somewhat-to-extremely biased toward positives for their own team. (Forest and Man City(?) were very biased this week. Credit to Brentford’s YT admin though, who was fair in their clips, even if the pace of the shots narrative left me a bit shell-shocked.) If you want a more balanced video take on a match, try to find the highlight package from your local broadcaster on YT instead.
Arsenal 2 - 1 Chelsea
This was a comprehensive beating, it just took about an hour for the scoreline to start to reflect it.
Kai Havertz will not always be this imperious in possession. His combination of ball receptions and pace stretching the back line was extremely difficult for Chelsea to read or handle. I guess it also helps to play against the team that gave up on you. Meanwhile, Gyokeres coming on made Arsenal noticeably less dangerous, despite the big brute having fresh legs against a tired Chelsea defense.
Christos Tzolis is far more of “A Problem” than I think anyone would have predicted before he played a Premier League match. Until he ran out of gas, Chelsea basically had to commit two players to stopping him, which wreaked havoc on their game plan all match long. I wonder a little if he’ll be able to trouble pure right backs in the same way as Chelsea’s back five, but it’s the first time in ages Arsenal look scary in possession and transition across both wings.
On the Chelsea front, the good news is that like Reece James noted after the match, it is still early in their tactical bedding in. Also Austin McPhee’s set pieces are definitely dangerous now. Chelsea are kinda weird, very athletic, talented all over and… maybe the most interesting watch in the league because you just don’t know what to expect.
tl;dr Arsenal are magnificent, confident bullies now. It won’t always be as good as this, but they were fucking fantastic and never seemed to doubt themselves after the early goal.
Everton 2 - 2 Manchester United
18 shots to 14.
.95 to .81 total expected goals?
The shot quality here was horrible, but the shots… oh my.
I thought Man United would have problems as the schedule ramped up and Europe bit into the squad, but they’ve already had a rocky start and the Champions League hasn’t even kicked off yet.
Bryan Mbuemo opened the scoring here with a lovely run and placed finish that Pickford will surely think he should have saved, but there was plenty of blame to go around the Everton defense.
Tyrique George made it 1-1 in the 83rd, with a lightning bolt off his foot from an impossible angle. Players don’t usually go near post from an angle that wide because it’s an easy save, but when you hit it like that…
So yeah, boring 1-1 finish at Hill Dickinson, right?
Not so fast, my friend.
United made it 1-2 in the 88th, as healthy(?), ageless (??) Luke Shaw made a huge, gut-busting underlap for Bruno Fernandes and placed the sweetest cross onto Benjamin Sesko’s head. Were Everton’s centre backs out of position? Probably, but two Everton defenders were trying to mark 3 United players in the box and choices had to be made.
A late, not-entirely-deserved winner for United then, right?
Enter former Arsenal player Ainsley Maitland-Niles. He’s been almost an ever-present at right back for Lyon the last two seasons, but cut his teeth playing midfield (and supposedly moved because that was what he wanted to keep playing, but sometimes you are destined to be a fullback and cannot escape).
ANYWAY…
Thunderbastard, 96th minute. 2-2.
I was in the Emirates watching this match on the TV screens, and the delight that rippled through the concourse that a) Everton equalised and b) it was Maitland-Niles wot did it to steal LATE points from United was a thing of beauty.
Fulham 2 - 3 Crystal Palace
25 shots to 10! 2.51 to 1.35 expected goals! Josh King and Oscar Bobb being tremendous fun to watch!
This should have been a Fulham win about two-thirds of the time. In order to explain why it wasn’t, you simply must watch the highlights. Words cannot do the last two Palace goals justice.
Fulham are fun to watch and probably a lot better than their record right now. I have no idea where this season will end up, but I will likely choose to watch them much more than I did under Marco Silva.
Newcastle 2 - 2 Bournemouth
Speaking of teams scamming results, Bournemouth owned this away match, got out to a 2-0 lead, and it still somehow ended 2-2. This was their best performance so far this season and they were all over the Magpies, especially in midfield.
Thus far, Bournemouth are probably better than their results but need to learn to clear the ball and close out games. Newcastle are likely much worse than the results, but we shall see.
Ipswich 0 - 2 Liverpool
I know it doesn’t mean much, but Liverpool are undefeated so far this season. Yes, they seem to have constantly trailed, and yes their squad holes are so big Erling Haaland can drive a truck through them, but they have firepower and fight.
It’s great news that Alexander Isak - he of the most expensive English transfer fee ever - had two goals to start this match. The early lead also meant Iraola seems to have shunted the team into defensive training mode, which makes sense given how they performed in the two games prior.
A clean sheet against Ipswich’s attack isn’t nothing - it’s definitely the better equipped part of the squad, even if their coach is a highly defensive one.
So yes, weigh it against the competition, but appreciate that the red side of Liverpool is showing signs of life.
Brentford 1 - 1 Sunderland
I think Sunderland are one of the more interesting teams to evaluate right now. They were relegation material in the second half of last season. But after another summer in the Premier League and the chance to solidify the squad, can they be closer to league average this season? Obviously it matters to Sunderland fans, but it really matters to the gamblers among us.
In this match, at least, Sunderland were pretty good, giving the Bees everything they could handle away from home.
They had an earlyish goal by Dan Ballard ruled out (dude looks like an action figure) due to a player in an obstructing position, but created consistent chances throughout this one. That included a Sadiki shot from range that was probably a goal, but hit Brian Brobbey in an offside position. You know that thing about teams that can’t get out of their own way? That, but literally.
To be fair, Brentford had chances too. Their goal came in the second half when a Damsgaard cross lead to a poor clearance right into the path of Vitaly Janelt. The Bees had a second goal ruled out for a foul on the GK by Anthony, and then Sunderland got a penalty from a soft call on wrestling in the box that let Le Fee tie the match.
I do not envy the job of officials, nor the complaints committee that assuredly get follow-ups.
Brighton 1 - 1 Leeds
It’s the third week of the season and Brighton have half the team out injured. Again. I don’t know exactly where the issue is down South with fitness, but if I were Tony Bloom and co, I’d think about cleaning house on the fitness/medical/performance like Arsenal did this summer because their squad seems super injured every single season.
Regarding the match, Leeds went up 0-1 in the fifteenth minute off a nothingburger possession out wide that quickly turned into a chipped cross, header saved, and rebound put home by Ao Tanaka.
Impressively, Leeds’ defense kept Brighton quiet for almost the entire first half, and they were dominant. However, football is a game of two halves, and Brighton generated seventeen shots after half time.
The Brighton goal came off a corner, with newboy Luka Vuskovic coming from the blindside, stopping his run, and heading a fairly easy one home.
There were over 4 xG in this match, likely leaving both sets of fans wondering why they didn’t get more out of it.
Man City 1 - 0 Coventry
The fair scoreline in this one based on expected goals would have been 2-1 to City, which has to be a little concerning to Enzo Maresca. “Control” does not look like giving up more than 1xG and twelve shots at home to Coventry.
It also does not look like a Hawkeye check on a backpass to Donnarumma that nearly crossed the goal line. Nor does it look like Taiwo Awoniyi sniping a pass from Semenyo to a centreback for a breakaway that the striker pushed wide.
Make no mistake, City were stressed here. What doesn’t kill you makes you stronger?
The only goal came on an overhit pass from Enzo Fernandez that I thought was going to run into touch, but Semenyo got there on the line and whipped a pinpoint cross to Erling Haaland’s head at the far post. Premier League footballers are just insanely physical and talented.
Nottingham Forest 0 - 0 Tottenham
If you’d like to see actual highlights of both teams, you’ll need to find the Sky etc feed, because the one linked makes it look like Spurs did not play in this match, which I can assure you they did. Maybe not very well, but it was definitely better than the first two matches Spurs “played” this season.
It was a very even match and largely boring minus Forest having a scrambling goal ruled out to handball on the attacking goal line, which I can’t really remember seeing before. Neco Williams put his head down to force the ball into the net instead of going for a clearance off Sandro Tonali’s boot, but he also instinctively tried to protect his face from said boot at the same time and… yeah.
For Spurs fans, boring was a bit of welcome relief. For Forest fans, a loss and two draws (albeit to Liverpool and Spurs) are not quite what they were hoping for to start the season.
Hull City 0 - 0 Aston Villa
So far this season, Hull have conceded 45 shots, 4.32 expected goals and zero actual goals. They gave up 1.50 of those expected goal to Villa this weekend, yet Hull sit third in the table.
Aston Villa have now taken 26 shots, for 2.19 xG (not great), and also have 0 goals to show for it. Regression cannot come soon enough.
Hull are probably a normal relegation-calibre team and Villa are waves hands whatever they are.
—TK
If you enjoyed this newsletter, we’d appreciate it if you would forward it to a friend. If you’re that friend, welcome! You can subscribe to The Transfer Flow here. We also have a podcast where we go in depth on transfer news and rumours every week. We’re on YouTube here, and you can subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify by searching for “The Transfer Flow Podcast.” If you’re interested in football betting, check out this post on why we started Variance Betting.
